Wallet analysis

2026-06-14T10:49:40+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

13
0x13bd…a84f
world · 29 markets active 2h ago
0.5score
+$11 +3%
TOTAL PnL · realized −$4 · open −$1
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP Fading edge⚠ Small sample
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$59
Realized−$4
Unrealized−$1
Win rate (resolved)46%
Wins / losses12 / 14
Open positions3
Markets (closed)26 / 29
History coverage67d
Avg bet$14
Trades / day0.9
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit76%
Chart Positions 3 History 26 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$4
7 days−$12
14 days−$10
30 days−$11
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? No 91¢ 82¢ $37 $34 −$4 (-10%)
Israel closes its airspace by June 14? No 88¢ 99¢ $13 $15 +$2 (+13%)
Israel closes its airspace by June 15? No 96¢ 99¢ $10 $10 +$0 (+3%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Israel closes its airspace by June 13? Jun 14 $10 +$2 +20%
Israel closes its airspace by June 12? Jun 13 $10 +$2 +24%
Israel closes its airspace by June 11? Jun 12 $20 +$3 +15%
Israel closes its airspace by June 10? Jun 11 $10 +$1 +6%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 27°C on June 11? Jun 10 $10 $0 -5%
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? Jun 09 $44 −$5 -12%
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? Jun 09 $51 −$7 -14%
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from June 11 to June 13, 2026? Jun 09 $1 $0 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 23, 4:05AM-4:10AM ET Jun 08 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 23, 3:55AM-4:00AM ET Jun 08 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 23, 4:10AM-4:15AM ET Jun 08 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 23, 3:50AM-3:55AM ET Jun 08 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 23, 3:40AM-3:45AM ET Jun 08 $5 −$5 -100%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? Jun 08 $20 +$1 +5%
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from June 8 to June 10, 2026? Jun 08 $26 +$3 +10%
Will Apple be the second-largest company in the world by market cap on Jun 06 $5 −$1 -12%
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from June 6 to June 8, 2026? Jun 06 $18 +$4 +22%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? Jun 06 $20 −$1 -3%
Will Donald Trump publicly insult someone on June 7, 2026? Jun 06 $22 $0 -2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 23, 3:45AM-3:50AM ET Jun 06 $1 $0 +1%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? May 16 $30 −$2 -7%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by December 31, 2026? May 16 $15 $0 -3%
Will US unemployment reach at least 5.0% in 2026? May 16 $2 +$1 +36%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of April? May 15 $6 +$3 +56%
Will April 2026 be the 2nd hottest on record? May 15 $5 −$5 -100%
Will April 2026 be the 3rd hottest on record? May 15 $7 +$9 +144%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
world 50% +$8
other 38% −$1
politics 6% $0
crypto 3% −$11
weather 2% $0
tech 1% −$1
economics 1% +$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? BUY No 94¢ $12 1h
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? BUY No 92¢ $12 21h
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? BUY No 88¢ $13 2d
Israel closes its airspace by June 15? BUY No 96¢ $10 2d
Israel closes its airspace by June 11? SELL No 100¢ $23 2d
Israel closes its airspace by June 14? BUY No 88¢ $13 3d
Israel closes its airspace by June 12? BUY No 80¢ $5 3d
Israel closes its airspace by June 12? BUY No 82¢ $5 3d
Israel closes its airspace by June 13? BUY No 83¢ $10 3d
Israel closes its airspace by June 10? BUY No 95¢ $10 3d
Israel closes its airspace by June 11? BUY No 87¢ $10 3d
Israel closes its airspace by June 11? BUY No 87¢ $10 3d
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 27°C on June 11? SELL No 86¢ $9 3d
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 27°C on June 11? BUY No 89¢ $10 3d
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? SELL Yes 19¢ $39 4d
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? BUY Yes 20¢ $44 4d
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? SELL Yes 15¢ $44 4d
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? BUY Yes 16¢ $51 4d
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from June 11 to June 13, 2026? SELL Yes 34¢ $1 4d
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from June 11 to June 13, 2026? BUY Yes 30¢ $1 4d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? SELL No 90¢ $21 5d
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from June 8 to June 10, 2026? SELL Yes 36¢ $29 5d
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from June 8 to June 10, 2026? BUY Yes 32¢ $5 7d
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from June 8 to June 10, 2026? BUY Yes 30¢ $10 7d
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from June 8 to June 10, 2026? BUY Yes 30¢ $10 7d
Will Apple be the second-largest company in the world by market cap on SELL No 39¢ $5 7d
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from June 6 to June 8, 2026? SELL Yes 35¢ $22 7d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? BUY No 86¢ $10 7d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? BUY No 86¢ $10 7d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? SELL No 67¢ $19 7d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +27%
net ROI/market (all)-20.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 15 -29.4% -36.1% 47% 20% -14.7%
≤30d 23 -17.7% -25.6% 43% 22% -12.6%
≤90d 26 -11.8% -20.2% 46% 27% -10.5%
all 26 -11.8% -20.2% 46% 27% -10.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover0.9 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -20.2% 27% -10.5%
10% -27.9% 15% -19.0%
15% -34.8% 12% -26.9%
20% -41.2% 8% -34.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $58.85 · official $58.86 (match) · 73 history records