Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T17:14:57+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
13 0x13c5…478f other 42 markets active 11h ago coverage 78d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$37 (-22%) realized −$35 · open −$2
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -25% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -32% what you keep after slip
Net edge-32%after slip
Net WR37%break-even
Win rate39%16W / 25L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$4per market
Trades / day0.7pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit40%portable
Net worth$8now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$31
7 days−$36
14 days−$40
30 days−$37
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 60% −$7
sports 35% −$31
world 5% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +37%
net ROI/market (all)-32.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 22 -41.0% -46.7% 32% 32% -50.4%
≤30d 35 -24.3% -31.5% 37% 37% -37.4%
≤90d 41 -24.9% -32.0% 39% 37% -32.1%
all 41 -24.9% -32.0% 39% 37% -32.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.7 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -32.0% 37% -32.1%
10% -38.5% 32% -38.6%
15% -44.5% 32% -44.5%
20% -49.9% 20% -50.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 16% · top 2 27% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -25% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
6% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -25% · $-wt -25% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -3% → late -45% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$2 vs −$3 · ×0.74 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.47 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

78d coverage
Net worth$8
Realized−$35
Unrealized−$2
Win rate (resolved)39%
Wins / losses16 / 25
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions1
Markets (closed)41 / 42
History coverage78d
Avg bet$4
Trades / day0.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit40%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 41 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Portugal vs. Uzbekistan: O/U 8.5 Total Corners Over 61¢ 51¢ $10 $8 −$2 (-16%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 17 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Jordan vs. Algeria end in a draw? Jun 23 $4 −$4 -97%
Ousmane Dembélé: 1+ goals Jun 22 $5 −$5 -99%
Will Argentina vs. Austria end in a draw? Jun 22 $8 −$7 -98%
Argentina vs. Austria: Austria 1st Half O/U 0.5 Jun 22 $5 −$5 -98%
Exact Score: Argentina 2 - 1 Austria? Jun 22 $5 −$1 -14%
France vs. Iraq: O/U 9.5 Total Corners Jun 22 $5 −$5 -98%
Exact Score: Uruguay 1 - 0 Cabo Verde? Jun 22 $3 −$3 -100%
Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 8.5 Total Corners Jun 22 $5 +$4 +73%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $5 −$5 -99%
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: Both Teams to Score Jun 21 $2 −$2 -98%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $1 +$1 +42%
Ecuador vs. Curaçao: Ecuador O/U 2.5 Jun 21 $3 −$2 -56%
Ecuador vs. Curaçao: Both Teams to Score Jun 20 $3 −$3 -98%
Will Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire end in a draw? Jun 20 $3 −$3 -98%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $3 +$2 +76%
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? Jun 19 $2 +$1 +62%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? Jun 19 $2 +$2 +105%
Will Canada vs. Qatar end in a draw? Jun 18 $1 −$1 -97%
Will England vs. Croatia end in a draw? Jun 17 $1 −$1 -98%
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $5 −$4 -88%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $5 +$2 +46%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $5 +$2 +48%
Michael Olise: 1+ goals Jun 16 $2 −$2 -98%
Ousmane Dembélé: 1+ goals Jun 16 $2 −$2 -98%
Will Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay end in a draw? Jun 16 $1 +$4 +344%
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $2 −$2 -99%
Will Belgium vs. Egypt end in a draw? Jun 15 $1 +$1 +60%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $3 −$1 -48%
Ferrán Torres: 1+ goals Jun 15 $3 −$3 -99%
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $3 +$3 +93%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $3 −$3 -100%
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $5 +$6 +109%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? Jun 12 $5 −$5 -99%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? Jun 11 $5 +$2 +44%
Will Manchester City FC win on 2026-05-09? Jun 08 $5 +$3 +50%
Will MrBeast's video get 70 million or more views on day 4? May 09 $5 +$1 +22%
Will "Elizabeth Taylor" get between 2.5 and 2.75 million views in the Apr 08 $1 −$1 -99%
Will "Elizabeth Taylor" get between 2.75 and 3 million views in the fi Apr 08 $12 −$2 -16%
Will "Elizabeth Taylor" get between 2.25 and 2,5 million views in the Apr 07 $1 −$1 -100%
Will "Elizabeth Taylor" get 3 million or more views in the first week? Apr 07 $7 +$2 +22%
Will Trump say "Peace" or "War" 3+ times during Monday news conference Apr 07 $7 $0 +2%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Portugal vs. Uzbekistan: O/U 8.5 Total Corners BUY Over 61¢ $10 10h
Will Jordan vs. Algeria end in a draw? BUY Yes 12¢ $4 12h
Ousmane Dembélé: 1+ goals BUY No 58¢ $5 22h
Will Argentina vs. Austria end in a draw? BUY Yes 17¢ $8 22h
Argentina vs. Austria: Austria 1st Half O/U 0.5 BUY Over 28¢ $5 27h
Exact Score: Argentina 2 - 1 Austria? SELL Yes 10¢ $4 27h
France vs. Iraq: O/U 9.5 Total Corners BUY Over 50¢ $5 34h
Exact Score: Argentina 2 - 1 Austria? BUY Yes 11¢ $5 35h
Exact Score: Uruguay 1 - 0 Cabo Verde? BUY Yes 18¢ $3 44h
Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 8.5 Total Corners BUY Over 57¢ $5 44h
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 66¢ $5 45h
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 36¢ $2 2d
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 70¢ $1 2d
Ecuador vs. Curaçao: Ecuador O/U 2.5 SELL Over 23¢ $1 2d
Ecuador vs. Curaçao: Ecuador O/U 2.5 BUY Over 50¢ $3 2d
Ecuador vs. Curaçao: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 35¢ $3 2d
Will Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire end in a draw? BUY Yes 29¢ $3 2d
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 56¢ $3 4d
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 48¢ $2 4d
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 61¢ $2 4d
Will Canada vs. Qatar end in a draw? SELL Yes 0¢ $0 4d
Will Canada vs. Qatar end in a draw? BUY Yes 7¢ $1 4d
Will England vs. Croatia end in a draw? BUY Yes 17¢ $1 5d
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 2.5 SELL Over 7¢ $1 5d
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 54¢ $5 6d
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 68¢ $5 6d
Michael Olise: 1+ goals BUY Yes 32¢ $2 7d
Ousmane Dembélé: 1+ goals BUY Yes 31¢ $2 7d
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 55¢ $2 7d
Will Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay end in a draw? BUY Yes 22¢ $1 7d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $8.36 · official $9.18 (match) · 71 history records