Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T06:15:05+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.5
score
13 0x13c6…c083 crypto 286 markets active 1h ago coverage 179d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL +$968 (+3%) realized +$972 · open −$4
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -14% what you keep after slip
Net edge-14%after slip
Net WR27%break-even
Win rate82%233W / 52L
Whale WR100%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$122per market
Trades / day4.6pace
Fees−$8est.
Kalshi-fit90%portable
Net worth$536now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$614
7 days+$210
14 days+$205
30 days+$205
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 60% +$346
other 34% +$420
sports 5% +$186
weather 1% +$19
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +27%
net ROI/market (all)-10.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 52 -15.3% -23.4% 65% 29% -8.1%
≤30d 53 -16.9% -24.8% 64% 28% -8.1%
≤90d 55 -16.7% -24.6% 64% 29% -8.2%
all 285 -1.0% -10.4% 82% 27% -7.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover4.6 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -10.4% 27% -7.0%
10% -19.0% 11% -15.9%
15% -26.8% 5% -24.0%
20% -34.0% 2% -31.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 17% · top 2 24% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
66% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -1% · $-wt +3% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR 100% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +2% → late -4% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.5 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$14 vs −$45 · ×0.3 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.45 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

179d coverage
Net worth$536
Realized+$972
Unrealized−$4
Win rate (resolved)82%
Wins / losses233 / 52
Whale WR (big bets)100%
Est. fees paid−$8
Open positions1
Markets (closed)285 / 286
History coverage179d
Avg bet$122
Trades / day4.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit90%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 285 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Halle Open: Ben Shelton vs Ethan Quinn Ben Shelton 77¢ 76¢ $540 $536 −$4 (-1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 2 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Uzbekistan win on 2026-06-17? Jun 18 $953 +$91 +10%
Exact Score: Portugal 3 - 1 DR Congo? Jun 17 $860 +$93 +11%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $855 +$5 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:40PM-12:45PM ET Jun 17 $32 +$10 +33%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:35PM-12:40PM ET Jun 17 $9 +$4 +46%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:30PM-12:35PM ET Jun 17 $21 +$2 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:25PM-12:30PM ET Jun 17 $2 −$2 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:20PM-12:25PM ET Jun 17 $21 +$5 +24%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 12:15PM-12:20PM ET Jun 17 $20 +$5 +23%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:15PM-12:20PM ET Jun 17 $41 +$4 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:10PM-12:15PM ET Jun 17 $52 +$9 +17%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:05PM-12:10PM ET Jun 17 $103 +$19 +18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:00PM-12:05PM ET Jun 17 $63 −$13 -21%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 11:55AM-12:00PM ET Jun 17 $42 −$12 -30%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 11:50AM-11:55AM ET Jun 17 $20 −$20 -100%
Halle Open: Ben Shelton vs Lorenzo Sonego Jun 17 $678 +$161 +24%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:50AM-9:55AM ET Jun 17 $10 +$2 +21%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:40AM-9:45AM ET Jun 17 $21 +$24 +117%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:35AM-9:40AM ET Jun 17 $21 −$20 -94%
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $676 +$2 +0%
Will Iraq win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $637 +$39 +6%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $431 +$205 +48%
Exact Score: Saudi Arabia 0 - 0 Uruguay? Jun 16 $398 +$34 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:00PM-5:05PM ET Jun 15 $10 +$5 +44%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:55PM-5:00PM ET Jun 15 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:50PM-4:55PM ET Jun 15 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:45PM-4:50PM ET Jun 15 $2 −$1 -24%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:25PM-3:30PM ET Jun 15 $259 +$542 +209%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:20PM-3:25PM ET Jun 15 $63 −$63 -100%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $400 −$399 -100%
Exact Score: Côte d'Ivoire 0 - 0 Ecuador? Jun 15 $625 +$99 +16%
Donyell Malen: 1+ shots Jun 15 $3 $0 +1%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $595 +$33 +6%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 28°C on June 14? Jun 14 $515 +$19 +4%
Exact Score: Australia 0 - 0 Türkiye? Jun 14 $532 +$44 +8%
Exact Score: Haiti 2 - 3 Scotland? Jun 14 $518 +$13 +3%
Exact Score: Brazil 0 - 0 Morocco? Jun 13 $479 +$40 +8%
Will Qatar win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $452 +$27 +6%
Exact Score: Canada 3 - 1 Bosnia-Herzegovina? Jun 12 $432 +$20 +5%
Exact Score: Canada 0 - 0 Bosnia-Herzegovina? Jun 12 $421 +$9 +2%
XRP Up or Down - January 8, 9:00AM-9:15AM ET Jun 12 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - December 28, 1:30PM-1:45PM ET Jun 12 $50 +$1 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 6, 2:45AM-3:00AM ET Jun 12 $12 −$12 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - January 8, 11:15AM-11:30AM ET Jun 12 $42 −$42 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 10, 3:45AM-4:00AM ET Jun 12 $68 −$68 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - December 30, 6:45AM-7:00AM ET Jun 12 $239 −$201 -84%
Bitcoin Up or Down - December 30, 11:45AM-12:00PM ET Jun 12 $211 −$211 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - December 30, 9:15AM-9:30AM ET Jun 12 $309 −$309 -100%
Will Egypt win on 2026-01-05? Jun 12 $29 −$29 -100%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? Jun 11 $398 +$25 +6%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Halle Open: Ben Shelton vs Ethan Quinn BUY Ben Shelton 77¢ $544 1h
Will Uzbekistan win on 2026-06-17? BUY No 91¢ $953 8h
Exact Score: Portugal 3 - 1 DR Congo? BUY No 92¢ $86 12h
Exact Score: Portugal 3 - 1 DR Congo? BUY No 90¢ $55 12h
Exact Score: Portugal 3 - 1 DR Congo? BUY No 90¢ $90 12h
Exact Score: Portugal 3 - 1 DR Congo? BUY No 90¢ $450 12h
Exact Score: Portugal 3 - 1 DR Congo? BUY No 90¢ $9 12h
Exact Score: Portugal 3 - 1 DR Congo? BUY No 90¢ $18 12h
Exact Score: Portugal 3 - 1 DR Congo? BUY No 90¢ $18 12h
Exact Score: Portugal 3 - 1 DR Congo? BUY No 90¢ $45 12h
Exact Score: Portugal 3 - 1 DR Congo? BUY No 90¢ $44 12h
Exact Score: Portugal 3 - 1 DR Congo? BUY No 90¢ $45 12h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? SELL Yes 91¢ $859 12h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 90¢ $855 13h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:40PM-12:45PM ET SELL Up 34¢ $42 13h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:40PM-12:45PM ET BUY Up 18¢ $11 13h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:40PM-12:45PM ET BUY Up 27¢ $21 13h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:35PM-12:40PM ET SELL Down 67¢ $13 13h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:35PM-12:40PM ET BUY Down 43¢ $9 13h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:30PM-12:35PM ET SELL Up 50¢ $3 13h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:30PM-12:35PM ET SELL Up 50¢ $15 13h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:30PM-12:35PM ET SELL Up 50¢ $5 13h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:30PM-12:35PM ET BUY Up 43¢ $21 13h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:25PM-12:30PM ET SELL Down 1¢ $0 13h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:25PM-12:30PM ET BUY Down 19¢ $2 13h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:20PM-12:25PM ET SELL Up 46¢ $26 13h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:20PM-12:25PM ET BUY Up 34¢ $21 13h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 12:15PM-12:20PM ET BUY Up 80¢ $20 13h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:15PM-12:20PM ET SELL Up 56¢ $45 13h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:15PM-12:20PM ET BUY Up 48¢ $41 14h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $536.49 · official $536.49 (match) · 1005 history records