Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T01:38:43+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.5
score
13 0x13c8…6de4 other 21 markets active 0h ago coverage 29d
RISKYcopy with care ⚠ Small sample
Total PnL +$990 (+85%) realized +$1,171 · open −$78
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +358% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +315% what you keep after slip
Net edge+315%after slip
Net WR60%break-even
Win rate60%6W / 4L
Drawdown9%max
Avg bet$56per market
Trades / day1.4pace
Kalshi-fit43%portable
Net worth$349now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$112
7 days+$248
14 days+$294
30 days+$1,171
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 46% +$964
world 43% +$146
politics 10% −$17
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +60%
net ROI/market (all)+314.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 3 +984.2% +880.9% 100% 100% +172.6%
≤30d 10 +358.3% +314.7% 60% 60% +135.8%
≤90d 10 +358.3% +314.7% 60% 60% +135.8%
all 10 +358.3% +314.7% 60% 60% +135.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.4 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to20%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +314.7% 60% +135.8%
10% +275.0% 50% +113.2%
15% +238.8% 50% +92.6%
20% +205.6% 40% +73.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 73% · top 2 81% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +161% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +358% · $-wt +161% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.8 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$214 vs −$28 · ×7.64 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×11.46 per $1 lost it wins $11.46
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

29d coverage
Net worth$349
Realized+$1,171
Unrealized−$78
Win rate (resolved)60%
Wins / losses6 / 4
Open positions11
Markets (closed)10 / 21
History coverage29d
Avg bet$56
Trades / day1.4
Drawdown9%
Kalshi-fit43%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 11 History 10 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Croatia reach the Semifinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 9¢ 9¢ $50 $48 −$2 (-3%)
Will Sweden win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $50 $44 −$6 (-12%)
Will Croatia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 1¢ 1¢ $50 $42 −$8 (-15%)
Will Uruguay reach the Semifinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 9¢ 8¢ $50 $42 −$8 (-17%)
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-17? Yes 19¢ 18¢ $40 $39 −$1 (-3%)
Will Uruguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 1¢ 1¢ $50 $39 −$11 (-23%)
Will Sweden reach the Semifinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 5¢ 4¢ $50 $39 −$11 (-23%)
Will Turkiye win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 1¢ 0¢ $60 $28 −$32 (-54%)
Will Jordan win on 2026-06-17? Yes 10¢ 10¢ $11 $12 +$1 (+5%)
Putin out as President of Russia by December 31, 2026? Yes 9¢ 10¢ $10 $11 +$1 (+6%)
Will Turkiye reach the Semifinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 8¢ 8¢ $6 $6 +$0 (+6%)
Will Donald Trump publicly insult someone on May 28, 2026? No 0¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Will Donald Trump publicly insult someone on June 6, 2026? No 6¢ 0¢ $6 $0 −$6 (-100%)
Will Donald Trump publicly insult someone on May 31, 2026? No 8¢ 0¢ $56 $0 −$56 (-100%)
Will Donald Trump publicly insult someone on May 30, 2026? No 7¢ 0¢ $49 $0 −$49 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? AND Will Australia win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $10 +$112 +1087%
Will Donald Trump publicly insult someone on June 7, 2026? Jun 08 $5 +$95 +1827%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 7, 2026? Jun 08 $108 +$42 +39%
Will Donald Trump publicly insult someone on June 6, 2026? Jun 05 $6 −$6 -100%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? Jun 01 $348 +$52 +15%
Will Donald Trump publicly insult someone on May 31, 2026? May 30 $56 −$56 -100%
Will Donald Trump publicly insult someone on May 30, 2026? May 30 $50 −$49 -98%
Will Donald Trump publicly insult someone on May 28, 2026? May 30 $1 −$1 -96%
Will Israel win the televote for Eurovision 2026? May 16 $41 +$51 +125%
Will Bulgaria win the televote for Eurovision 2026? May 16 $105 +$931 +891%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Turkiye reach the Semifinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 8¢ $5 5m
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 19¢ $41 53m
Will Turkiye reach the Semifinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 8¢ $1 1h
Will Turkiye win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 0¢ $10 1h
Will Jordan win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 10¢ $11 7h
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? AND Will Australia win on 2026-06-14? BUY 8¢ $10 29h
Will Uruguay reach the Semifinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 9¢ $51 4d
Will Sweden reach the Semifinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 5¢ $51 4d
Will Croatia reach the Semifinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 9¢ $51 4d
Will Croatia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 1¢ $51 5d
Will Sweden win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 0¢ $51 5d
Will Turkiye win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 1¢ $51 5d
Will Uruguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 1¢ $51 5d
Putin out as President of Russia by December 31, 2026? BUY Yes 9¢ $10 6d
Will Donald Trump publicly insult someone on June 6, 2026? BUY No 6¢ $6 9d
Will Donald Trump publicly insult someone on June 6, 2026? BUY No 6¢ $0 9d
Will Donald Trump publicly insult someone on June 7, 2026? BUY No 5¢ $5 9d
Will Donald Trump publicly insult someone on June 6, 2026? BUY No 6¢ $0 9d
Will Donald Trump publicly insult someone on May 31, 2026? BUY No 8¢ $43 15d
Will Donald Trump publicly insult someone on May 30, 2026? BUY No 7¢ $8 15d
Will Donald Trump publicly insult someone on May 30, 2026? BUY No 7¢ $0 15d
Will Donald Trump publicly insult someone on May 30, 2026? BUY No 7¢ $0 15d
Will Donald Trump publicly insult someone on May 30, 2026? BUY No 7¢ $1 15d
Will Donald Trump publicly insult someone on May 30, 2026? BUY No 7¢ $10 15d
Will Donald Trump publicly insult someone on May 31, 2026? BUY No 8¢ $9 15d
Will Donald Trump publicly insult someone on May 30, 2026? BUY No 7¢ $0 15d
Will Donald Trump publicly insult someone on May 30, 2026? BUY No 7¢ $0 15d
Will Donald Trump publicly insult someone on May 31, 2026? BUY No 8¢ $1 15d
Will Donald Trump publicly insult someone on May 30, 2026? BUY No 7¢ $1 15d
Will Donald Trump publicly insult someone on May 31, 2026? BUY No 8¢ $1 16d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $348.55 · official $348.55 (match) · 50 history records