Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T14:56:21+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
13 0x13c9…14ab world 18 markets active 2h ago coverage 44d
TRAPdo not copy ⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL +$131 (+3%) realized +$135 · open −$4
Gross ROI / mkt -11% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -19% what you keep after slip
Net edge-19%after slip
Net WR19%break-even
Win rate62%10W / 6L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$228per market
Trades / day0.7pace
Kalshi-fit78%portable
Net worth$668now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$429
7 days+$206
14 days+$206
30 days+$69
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 47% +$214
other 18% +$3
crypto 13% −$130
politics 11% +$10
tech 11% +$11
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +19%
net ROI/market (all)-19.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 2 +70.5% +54.3% 50% 50% +11.5%
≤30d 8 -1.9% -11.2% 62% 25% -6.5%
≤90d 16 -10.8% -19.3% 62% 19% -6.6%
all 16 -10.8% -19.3% 62% 19% -6.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.7 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -19.3% 19% -6.6%
10% -27.0% 19% -15.5%
15% -34.1% 6% -23.7%
20% -40.5% 6% -31.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 79% · top 2 84% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +3% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
70% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -11% · $-wt +3% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -20% → late -2% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$54 vs −$72 · ×0.76 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.26 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

44d coverage
Net worth$668
Realized+$135
Unrealized−$4
Win rate (resolved)62%
Wins / losses10 / 6
Open positions2
Markets (closed)16 / 18
History coverage44d
Avg bet$228
Trades / day0.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit78%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 16 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-23? Yes 86¢ 86¢ $667 $663 −$4 (-1%)
Will the Republican Party control the Senate after the 2026 Midterm elections? No 46¢ 44¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-3%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? Jun 23 $244 +$429 +176%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? Jun 18 $643 −$223 -35%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 7, 2026? Jun 08 $441 +$26 +6%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on June 3? Jun 03 $143 −$143 -100%
Israel closes its airspace by May 31? Jun 02 $50 +$13 +27%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? Jun 02 $74 +$6 +9%
Will France send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by May 31, 2026 Jun 02 $50 −$50 -100%
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on May 3 Jun 01 $432 +$11 +3%
Starmer out by May 15, 2026? May 16 $67 +$6 +10%
Will Lens win the 2025–26 French Ligue 1? May 15 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Donald Trump visit China on May 13, 2026? May 13 $398 +$23 +6%
Will Trump visit China by May 15? May 13 $55 −$2 -3%
Will the Court Force Trump to Refund Tariffs? May 12 $11 −$11 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 120-139 tweets from May 5 to May 12, 2026? May 12 $11 +$3 +24%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $80,000 on May 11? May 12 $399 +$13 +3%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 11, 2026? May 11 $410 +$13 +3%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 86¢ $673 1h
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? SELL No 98¢ $673 1h
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? BUY No 35¢ $244 5d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? SELL No $6 7d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY No $9 8d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? SELL Yes 93¢ $9 8d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY Yes 67¢ $167 8d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? SELL No 35¢ $167 8d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY No 96¢ $467 15d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on June 3? BUY Yes 38¢ $143 21d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 7, 2026? BUY No 94¢ $441 22d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? BUY No 92¢ $74 37d
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on May 3 BUY Yes 97¢ $432 39d
Will Lens win the 2025–26 French Ligue 1? BUY Yes $1 42d
Will Elon Musk post 120-139 tweets from May 5 to May 12, 2026? SELL No 85¢ $14 42d
Starmer out by May 15, 2026? BUY No 91¢ $67 42d
Will Elon Musk post 120-139 tweets from May 5 to May 12, 2026? BUY No 67¢ $11 42d
Will Donald Trump visit China on May 13, 2026? BUY Yes 95¢ $398 42d
Will the Court Force Trump to Refund Tariffs? BUY No $10 42d
Will the Court Force Trump to Refund Tariffs? BUY No $1 43d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $80,000 on May 11? BUY Yes 97¢ $399 43d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 11, 2026? SELL No 100¢ $423 43d
Will Trump visit China by May 15? SELL Yes 99¢ $54 43d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 11, 2026? BUY No 97¢ $410 44d
Will Lens win the 2025–26 French Ligue 1? BUY Yes $1 44d
Will the Republican Party control the Senate after the 2026 Midterm el BUY No 46¢ $5 44d
Will Trump visit China by May 15? BUY No $5 44d
Will Trump visit China by May 15? BUY Yes 92¢ $50 44d
Israel closes its airspace by May 31? BUY No 79¢ $50 44d
Will France send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by May 31, 2026 BUY Yes 20¢ $50 44d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $667.54 · official $667.54 (match) · 43 history records