trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?
| timeframe | markets | gross ROI | NET ROI | gross WR | NET WR | net PnL (wtd) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ≤7d | 2 | +70.5% | +54.3% | 50% | 50% | +11.5% |
| ≤30d | 8 | -1.9% | -11.2% | 62% | 25% | -6.5% |
| ≤90d | 16 | -10.8% | -19.3% | 62% | 19% | -6.6% |
| all | 16 | -10.8% | -19.3% | 62% | 19% | -6.6% |
| copier slippage | NET ROI | NET WR | net PnL (wtd) |
|---|---|---|---|
| 5% ideal ← realistic here | -19.3% | 19% | -6.6% |
| 10% | -27.0% | 19% | -15.5% |
| 15% | -34.1% | 6% | -23.7% |
| 20% | -40.5% | 6% | -31.2% |
| Market | outcome | entry | now | invested | value | unrealized PnL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Portugal win on 2026-06-23? | Yes | 86¢ | 86¢ | $667 | $663 | −$4 (-1%) |
| Will the Republican Party control the Senate after the 2026 Midterm elections? | No | 46¢ | 44¢ | $5 | $5 | −$0 (-3%) |
| Market | when | invested | PnL | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? | Jun 23 | $244 | +$429 | +176% |
| US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? | Jun 18 | $643 | −$223 | -35% |
| US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 7, 2026? | Jun 08 | $441 | +$26 | +6% |
| Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on June 3? | Jun 03 | $143 | −$143 | -100% |
| Israel closes its airspace by May 31? | Jun 02 | $50 | +$13 | +27% |
| US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? | Jun 02 | $74 | +$6 | +9% |
| Will France send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by May 31, 2026 | Jun 02 | $50 | −$50 | -100% |
| Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on May 3 | Jun 01 | $432 | +$11 | +3% |
| Starmer out by May 15, 2026? | May 16 | $67 | +$6 | +10% |
| Will Lens win the 2025–26 French Ligue 1? | May 15 | $2 | −$2 | -100% |
| Will Donald Trump visit China on May 13, 2026? | May 13 | $398 | +$23 | +6% |
| Will Trump visit China by May 15? | May 13 | $55 | −$2 | -3% |
| Will the Court Force Trump to Refund Tariffs? | May 12 | $11 | −$11 | -100% |
| Will Elon Musk post 120-139 tweets from May 5 to May 12, 2026? | May 12 | $11 | +$3 | +24% |
| Will the price of Bitcoin be above $80,000 on May 11? | May 12 | $399 | +$13 | +3% |
| US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 11, 2026? | May 11 | $410 | +$13 | +3% |