Wallet analysis

2026-06-29T19:05:52+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.5
score
13 0x13ca…1e53 sports 54 markets active 1h ago coverage 172d
RISKYcopy with care sports specialist
Total PnL +$1,367 (+21%) realized +$1,070 · open +$297
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +26% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +14% what you keep after slip
Net edge+14%after slip
Net WR36%break-even
Win rate38%20W / 33L
Drawdown85%max
Avg bet$123per market
Trades / day1.0pace
Fees−$90est.
Kalshi-fit59%portable
Net worth$397now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$903
7 days+$561
14 days−$861
30 days+$1,359
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 56% +$1,692
other 36% +$463
world 7% −$500
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
borderline — thin edge, slippage-sensitive
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +36%
net ROI/market (all)+13.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 23 +24.3% +12.5% 43% 43% +12.6%
≤30d 53 +25.5% +13.6% 38% 36% +9.2%
≤90d 53 +25.5% +13.6% 38% 36% +9.2%
all 53 +25.5% +13.6% 38% 36% +9.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.0 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to10%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +13.6% 36% +9.2%
10% +2.7% 36% -1.2%
15% -7.2% 36% -10.8%
20% -16.3% 34% -19.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 15% · top 2 26% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +21% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
5% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +26% · $-wt +21% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +32% → late +19% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
3.1 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$261 vs −$117 · ×2.23 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.35 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

172d coverage
Net worth$397
Realized+$1,070
Unrealized+$297
Win rate (resolved)38%
Wins / losses20 / 33
Est. fees paid−$90
Open positions1
Markets (closed)53 / 54
History coverage172d
Avg bet$123
Trades / day1.0
Drawdown85%
Kalshi-fit59%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 53 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-29? Yes 25¢ 99¢ $100 $397 +$297 (+297%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 21 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Canada win on 2026-06-28? Jun 28 $100 +$150 +150%
Spread: Canada (-1.5) Jun 28 $100 −$100 -100%
South Africa vs. Canada: O/U 2.5 Jun 28 $100 −$100 -100%
Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-27? Jun 28 $100 +$300 +300%
Spread: DR Congo (-1.5) Jun 28 $100 +$300 +300%
Croatia vs. Ghana: O/U 2.5 Jun 27 $100 +$203 +203%
Croatia vs. Ghana: O/U 1.5 Jun 27 $100 +$100 +100%
Spread: England (-1.5) Jun 27 $100 +$150 +150%
Spread: England (-2.5) Jun 27 $100 −$100 -100%
Spread: Spain (-1.5) Jun 26 $100 −$100 -100%
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-26? Jun 26 $100 −$100 -100%
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-26? Jun 26 $100 −$100 -100%
Japan vs. Sweden: O/U 1.5 Jun 26 $100 +$203 +203%
Will United States win on 2026-06-25? Jun 26 $100 −$100 -100%
Spread: United States (-1.5) Jun 26 $100 −$100 -100%
Japan vs. Sweden: O/U 2.5 Jun 25 $100 −$100 -100%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-25? Jun 25 $100 −$100 -100%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-25? Jun 25 $100 −$98 -98%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-24? Jun 25 $100 +$100 +100%
Spread: Morocco (-1.5) Jun 25 $100 +$203 +203%
Spread: Morocco (-2.5) Jun 24 $100 −$100 -100%
Switzerland vs. Canada: Both Teams to Score Jun 24 $100 +$150 +150%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-24? Jun 24 $100 −$100 -100%
Argentina vs. Austria: Both Teams to Score Jun 22 $99 −$99 -100%
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-21? Jun 22 $202 +$531 +263%
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-21? Jun 22 $99 −$99 -100%
Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde: Draw at halftime? Jun 22 $112 −$112 -100%
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $100 −$100 -100%
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $110 −$110 -100%
Will Netherlands vs. Sweden end in a draw? Jun 20 $120 −$120 -100%
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-19? Jun 19 $100 −$100 -100%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? Jun 19 $100 +$127 +127%
Spread: Czechia (-1.5) Jun 18 $100 −$100 -100%
Will England vs. Croatia end in a draw? Jun 17 $100 −$100 -100%
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $100 −$100 -100%
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by January 31? Jun 17 $500 −$500 -100%
Will President Trump attend the NBA Finals? Jun 17 $21 −$21 -100%
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? Jun 17 $100 −$100 -100%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? Jun 17 $102 −$102 -100%
Will Real Madrid win the 2025–26 Champions League? Jun 17 $100 −$100 -100%
Spurs vs. Knicks Jun 17 $600 +$280 +47%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? Jun 17 $200 −$200 -100%
Will Man City win the 2025–26 Champions League? Jun 17 $100 −$100 -100%
Will Barcelona win the 2025–26 Champions League? Jun 17 $100 −$100 -100%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 17 $100 −$100 -100%
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals? Jun 17 $200 −$200 -100%
Will Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay end in a draw? Jun 16 $100 +$203 +203%
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $100 +$567 +567%
Will Netherlands vs. Japan end in a draw? Jun 15 $100 +$567 +567%
Spurs vs. Knicks Jun 14 $100 +$9 +9%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-29? BUY Yes 25¢ $102 1h
Will Canada win on 2026-06-28? BUY Yes 40¢ $100 22h
Spread: Canada (-1.5) BUY Canada 20¢ $66 23h
Spread: Canada (-1.5) BUY Canada 20¢ $26 23h
Spread: Canada (-1.5) BUY Canada 20¢ $2 23h
Spread: Canada (-1.5) BUY Canada 20¢ $6 23h
South Africa vs. Canada: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 33¢ $4 23h
South Africa vs. Canada: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 33¢ $33 23h
South Africa vs. Canada: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 33¢ $0 23h
South Africa vs. Canada: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 33¢ $63 23h
Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-27? BUY Yes 25¢ $12 42h
Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-27? BUY Yes 25¢ $88 42h
Spread: DR Congo (-1.5) BUY DR Congo 25¢ $100 43h
Spread: England (-1.5) BUY England 40¢ $100 45h
Spread: England (-2.5) BUY England 25¢ $97 45h
Spread: England (-2.5) BUY England 25¢ $3 45h
Croatia vs. Ghana: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 50¢ $40 45h
Croatia vs. Ghana: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 50¢ $29 45h
Croatia vs. Ghana: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 50¢ $30 45h
Croatia vs. Ghana: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 33¢ $1 45h
Croatia vs. Ghana: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 33¢ $1 45h
Croatia vs. Ghana: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 33¢ $99 45h
Spread: Spain (-1.5) BUY Spain 33¢ $100 2d
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-26? BUY Yes 33¢ $100 2d
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-26? BUY Yes 39¢ $100 2d
Will United States win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 50¢ $23 3d
Will United States win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 50¢ $2 3d
Will United States win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 50¢ $2 3d
Will United States win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 50¢ $2 3d
Will United States win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 50¢ $22 3d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $397.00 · official $390.00 · 236 history records