Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T04:55:51+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.5

score

13 0x13ca…1b86 other 8 markets active 2h ago coverage 12d

RISKYcopy with care ⚠ Small sample

✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge

Total PnL −$6 (-2%) realized −$36 · open +$30

Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗

Gross ROI / mkt +232% what the leader earns

→−copy tax

Net edge / mkt +200% what you keep after slip

Net edge+200%after slip

Net WR100%break-even

Win rate100%3W / 0L

Drawdown0%max

Avg bet$33per market

Trades / day1.1pace

Kalshi-fit12%portable

Net worth$163now

Equity curve

realized PnL

Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 12d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net

insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge

break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even

chance a trade nets +100%

net ROI/market (all)+200.0%

timeframe	markets	gross ROI	NET ROI	gross WR	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
≤7d	2	+320.2%	+280.2%	100%	100%	+144.8%
≤30d	3	+231.6%	+200.0%	100%	100%	+61.1%
≤90d	3	+231.6%	+200.0%	100%	100%	+61.1%
all	3	+231.6%	+200.0%	100%	100%	+61.1%

gross = as the leader traded. net = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip

turnover1.1 tr/day

realistic slip~5%

edge survives to20%

copier slippage	NET ROI	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here	+200.0%	100%	+61.1%
10%	+171.3%	100%	+45.7%
15%	+145.1%	100%	+31.6%
20%	+121.0%	100%	+18.7%

Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a trap: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill

Profit concentration

top 55% · top 2 86% thin sample

Edge freshness (90d)

90d ROI +78% too few recent

Fragile wins

0% wins margin < slip thin sample

Flat-copyable

equal-wt +232% · $-wt +78% works when copied flat

Big bets

big-bet WR —% no data

Persistence

early —% → late —% no data

Add-ons / DCA

1.6 add-ons/market adds to positions

Win / loss size

+$33 vs — no data

Profit factor

— no data

Copy size

≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

12d coverage

Net worth$163

Realized−$36

Unrealized+$30

Win rate (resolved)100%

Wins / losses3 / 0

Open positions5

Markets (closed)3 / 8

History coverage12d

Avg bet$33

Trades / day1.1

Drawdown0%

Kalshi-fit12%

Ledger

positions · history · trades

Positions 5 History 3 Trades

Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket

Market	outcome	entry	now	invested	value	unrealized PnL
Cap FDV above $250M one day after launch?	Yes	23¢	24¢	$78	$78	+$0 (+0%)
Arcium FDV above $300M one day after launch?	Yes	37¢	97¢	$21	$55	+$34 (+161%)
Arcium FDV above $800M one day after launch?	Yes	7¢	10¢	$10	$15	+$5 (+55%)
Cap FDV above $150M one day after launch?	Yes	40¢	38¢	$10	$10	−$0 (-4%)
Arcium FDV above $1B one day after launch?	Yes	2¢	1¢	$13	$5	−$9 (-64%)

Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).

Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first

Market	when	invested	PnL	ROI
o1 FDV above $400M one day after launch?	Jun 18	$5	+$30	+574%
o1 FDV above $200M one day after launch?	Jun 18	$21	+$14	+67%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2T?	Jun 12	$101	+$55	+54%

Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.

Latest trades by this wallet

Market	side	price	size	when
Cap FDV above $250M one day after launch?	BUY Yes	23¢	$17	1h
Cap FDV above $250M one day after launch?	BUY Yes	23¢	$6	1h
Cap FDV above $150M one day after launch?	BUY Yes	40¢	$10	1h
Cap FDV above $250M one day after launch?	BUY Yes	24¢	$58	1h
Arcium FDV above $1B one day after launch?	BUY Yes	2¢	$7	21h
Arcium FDV above $1B one day after launch?	BUY Yes	2¢	$7	21h
Arcium FDV above $800M one day after launch?	BUY Yes	7¢	$11	25h
Arcium FDV above $300M one day after launch?	BUY Yes	37¢	$22	25h
o1 FDV above $400M one day after launch?	BUY Yes	14¢	$5	5d
o1 FDV above $200M one day after launch?	BUY Yes	62¢	$10	5d
o1 FDV above $200M one day after launch?	BUY Yes	55¢	$10	5d
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2T?	BUY Yes	64¢	$91	11d
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2T?	BUY Yes	63¢	$10	12d

From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.

✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $162.84 · official $162.84 (match) · 16 history records