Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T06:40:55+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
13 0x13cc…962b sports 56 markets active 2h ago coverage 12d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$105 (-5%) realized −$105 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt -31% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -42% what you keep after slip
Net edge-42%after slip
Net WR34%break-even
Win rate34%19W / 37L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$40per market
Trades / day11.0pace
Fees−$60est.
Kalshi-fit98%portable
Net worth$1now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$10
7 days−$64
14 days−$176
30 days−$176
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 99% −$183
other 1% +$7
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +34%
net ROI/market (all)-37.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 23 -34.2% -40.5% 35% 35% -17.4%
≤30d 56 -30.7% -37.3% 34% 34% -16.2%
≤90d 56 -30.7% -37.3% 34% 34% -16.2%
all 56 -30.7% -37.3% 34% 34% -16.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover11.0 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -37.3% 34% -16.2%
10% -43.3% 34% -24.2%
15% -48.8% 29% -31.5%
20% -53.8% 16% -38.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 18% · top 2 32% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -8% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -31% · $-wt -8% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -26% → late -35% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$34 vs −$22 · ×1.53 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.78 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

12d coverage
Net worth$1
Realized−$105
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)34%
Wins / losses19 / 37
Est. fees paid−$60
Open positions0
Markets (closed)56 / 56
History coverage12d
Avg bet$40
Trades / day11.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit98%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 56 Trades
no open positions (25 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Tunisia vs. Japan: O/U 2.5 Jun 21 $10 +$3 +29%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $20 +$7 +36%
Grass Court Championships: Jessica Pegula vs Katerina Siniakova Jun 17 $5 −$1 -21%
Halle Open: Ben Shelton vs Lorenzo Sonego Jun 17 $10 −$10 -98%
Nottingham Open: Yulia Starodubtseva vs Emma Navarro Jun 17 $49 −$5 -11%
HSBC Championships: Alex de Minaur vs Gabriel Diallo Jun 16 $20 −$6 -32%
HSBC Championships: Jakub Mensik vs Adrian Mannarino Jun 16 $46 −$3 -7%
HSBC Championships: Brandon Nakashima vs Marton Fucsovics Jun 16 $26 −$16 -61%
Nottingham Open: Himeno Sakatsume vs Jessica Bouzas Maneiro Jun 15 $16 −$9 -54%
Grass Court Championships: Nikola Bartunkova vs Diana Shnaider Jun 15 $51 −$15 -30%
Nottingham 2: Darwin Blanch vs Zhizhen Zhang Jun 15 $0 $0 -98%
Nottingham Open: Maya Joint vs Yulia Starodubtseva Jun 15 $76 +$31 +41%
HSBC Championships: Tommy Paul vs Zachary Svajda Jun 15 $15 −$15 -98%
Halle Open: Nikoloz Basilashvili vs Daniel Altmaier Jun 15 $20 +$14 +68%
Grass Court Championships, Qualification: Maria Timofeeva vs Renata Za Jun 15 $40 −$4 -11%
Nottingham Open: Marie Bouzkova vs Tereza Valentova Jun 15 $10 −$7 -68%
Grass Court Championships, Qualification: Lin Zhu vs Sinja Kraus Jun 15 $20 +$5 +24%
Spread: Hurricanes (-2.5) Jun 15 $31 −$19 -61%
Nottingham Open, Qualification: Himeno Sakatsume vs Alicia Dudeney Jun 14 $20 +$9 +43%
Halle Open, Qualification: Mattia Bellucci vs Alex Bolt Jun 14 $20 +$8 +38%
Stuttgart Open: Ben Shelton vs Taylor Fritz Jun 14 $41 +$11 +27%
Nottingham Open, Qualification: Anna Blinkova vs Anna Bondar Jun 14 $20 −$20 -98%
Grass Court Championships, Qualification: Diane Parry vs Ella Seidel Jun 14 $20 −$20 -98%
Spread: Spurs (-6.5) Jun 14 $30 +$20 +65%
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 14 $61 −$30 -49%
Ilkley: Dane Sweeny vs Toby Samuel Jun 13 $50 +$21 +42%
Bratislava: Alexander Shevchenko vs Vitaliy Sachko Jun 13 $31 −$30 -98%
Stuttgart Open: Ben Shelton vs Sho Shimabukuro Jun 13 $31 −$30 -98%
Golden State Valkyries vs. Seattle Storm Jun 13 $51 −$50 -98%
Toronto Tempo vs. Washington Mystics Jun 13 $20 −$20 -98%
Stuttgart Open: Ben Shelton vs Marcos Giron Jun 12 $31 −$30 -98%
HSBC Championships: Harriet Dart vs Kamilla Rakhimova Jun 12 $51 −$20 -39%
Libema Open: Daniil Medvedev vs Thijs Boogaard Jun 12 $10 −$10 -98%
Libema Open: Nuno Borges vs Marin Cilic Jun 12 $10 −$10 -97%
HSBC Championships: Elena Rybakina vs Tatjana Maria Jun 12 $51 +$69 +136%
Libema Open: Zhizhen Zhang vs Adrian Mannarino Jun 12 $51 −$50 -97%
Golden Knights vs. Hurricanes: O/U 5.5 Jun 12 $58 −$3 -6%
Korea Republic vs. Czechia: O/U 2.5 Jun 12 $51 −$50 -99%
Spread: Korea Republic (-1.5) Jun 12 $35 −$34 -98%
Chicago Sky vs. Indiana Fever Jun 12 $102 +$90 +88%
Lyon: Pedro Martinez vs Felix Balshaw Jun 11 $10 −$10 -98%
Libema Open: Ajla Tomljanovic vs Dayana Yastremska Jun 11 $20 $0 -1%
Stuttgart Open: Sho Shimabukuro vs Nick Kyrgios Jun 11 $10 −$10 -97%
Stuttgart Open: Jiri Lehecka vs James Duckworth Jun 11 $15 −$15 -98%
Bratislava: Alexander Shevchenko vs Hynek Barton Jun 11 $51 +$21 +42%
Libema Open: Ugo Humbert vs Benjamin Bonzi Jun 11 $10 −$2 -20%
Spread: Spurs (-8.5) Jun 11 $90 +$69 +77%
Spread: Spurs (-10.5) Jun 11 $20 +$23 +114%
Spread: Spurs (-6.5) Jun 11 $82 −$55 -66%
Spurs vs. Knicks Jun 11 $204 −$151 -74%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? SELL Yes 96¢ $27 1h
Tunisia vs. Japan: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 77¢ $10 1h
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 70¢ $20 3h
Grass Court Championships: Jessica Pegula vs Katerina Siniakova SELL Katerina Siniakova $4 3d
Grass Court Championships: Jessica Pegula vs Katerina Siniakova BUY Katerina Siniakova $5 3d
Halle Open: Ben Shelton vs Lorenzo Sonego BUY Lorenzo Sonego 28¢ $10 3d
Nottingham Open: Yulia Starodubtseva vs Emma Navarro SELL Yulia Starodubtseva 37¢ $44 3d
Nottingham Open: Yulia Starodubtseva vs Emma Navarro BUY Yulia Starodubtseva 40¢ $49 3d
HSBC Championships: Alex de Minaur vs Gabriel Diallo SELL Gabriel Diallo 20¢ $14 4d
HSBC Championships: Alex de Minaur vs Gabriel Diallo BUY Gabriel Diallo 28¢ $20 4d
HSBC Championships: Jakub Mensik vs Adrian Mannarino SELL Adrian Mannarino 40¢ $25 4d
HSBC Championships: Jakub Mensik vs Adrian Mannarino BUY Adrian Mannarino 37¢ $10 4d
HSBC Championships: Jakub Mensik vs Adrian Mannarino BUY Adrian Mannarino 27¢ $10 4d
HSBC Championships: Jakub Mensik vs Adrian Mannarino SELL Adrian Mannarino 17¢ $15 4d
HSBC Championships: Jakub Mensik vs Adrian Mannarino BUY Adrian Mannarino $5 4d
HSBC Championships: Brandon Nakashima vs Marton Fucsovics BUY Marton Fucsovics 17¢ $10 4d
HSBC Championships: Brandon Nakashima vs Marton Fucsovics SELL Marton Fucsovics 10¢ $9 4d
HSBC Championships: Brandon Nakashima vs Marton Fucsovics BUY Marton Fucsovics 16¢ $15 4d
HSBC Championships: Jakub Mensik vs Adrian Mannarino BUY Adrian Mannarino 66¢ $20 4d
Nottingham Open: Himeno Sakatsume vs Jessica Bouzas Maneiro SELL Himeno Sakatsume $8 5d
Grass Court Championships: Nikola Bartunkova vs Diana Shnaider SELL Nikola Bartunkova 18¢ $11 5d
Grass Court Championships: Nikola Bartunkova vs Diana Shnaider BUY Nikola Bartunkova 35¢ $10 5d
Nottingham Open: Himeno Sakatsume vs Jessica Bouzas Maneiro BUY Himeno Sakatsume 14¢ $15 5d
Grass Court Championships: Nikola Bartunkova vs Diana Shnaider BUY Nikola Bartunkova 55¢ $20 5d
Nottingham Open: Himeno Sakatsume vs Jessica Bouzas Maneiro BUY Himeno Sakatsume 25¢ $1 5d
Grass Court Championships: Nikola Bartunkova vs Diana Shnaider SELL Nikola Bartunkova 73¢ $9 5d
Grass Court Championships: Nikola Bartunkova vs Diana Shnaider SELL Nikola Bartunkova 73¢ $7 5d
Grass Court Championships: Nikola Bartunkova vs Diana Shnaider SELL Nikola Bartunkova 73¢ $6 5d
Grass Court Championships: Nikola Bartunkova vs Diana Shnaider SELL Nikola Bartunkova 73¢ $1 5d
Grass Court Championships: Nikola Bartunkova vs Diana Shnaider BUY Nikola Bartunkova 63¢ $20 5d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.86 · official $0.00 (match) · 136 history records