Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T09:14:33+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

6.5
score
13 0x13d0…593d sports 35 markets active 1h ago coverage 109d
RISKYcopy with care sports specialist⚠ Small sample
! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL +$12,207 (+32%) realized +$11,959 · open +$248
Gross ROI / mkt +46% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +27% what you keep after slip
Net edge+27%after slip
Net WR42%break-even
Win rate42%8W / 11L
Whale WR60%big bets
Drawdown31%max
Avg bet$1,094per market
Trades / day0.4pace
Fees−$385est.
Kalshi-fit74%portable
Net worth$19,254now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$1,494
7 days+$15,310
14 days+$15,310
30 days+$15,310
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 50% +$15,316
other 40% +$241
economics 10% −$3,444
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
borderline — thin edge, slippage-sensitive
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +42%
net ROI/market (all)+32.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 18 +53.8% +39.2% 44% 44% +93.5%
≤30d 18 +53.8% +39.2% 44% 44% +93.5%
≤90d 18 +53.8% +39.2% 44% 44% +93.5%
all 19 +46.4% +32.4% 42% 42% +53.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.4 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to15%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +32.4% 42% +53.4%
10% +19.7% 42% +38.7%
15% +8.2% 37% +25.3%
20% -2.4% 37% +13.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 40% · top 2 65% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +110% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +46% · $-wt +67% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 60% (≥$1,500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +77% → late +19% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$2,385 vs −$656 · ×3.64 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×2.64 per $1 lost it wins $2.64
Copy size
≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

109d coverage
Net worth$19,254
Realized+$11,959
Unrealized+$248
Win rate (resolved)42%
Wins / losses8 / 11
Whale WR (big bets)60%
Est. fees paid−$385
Open positions16
Markets (closed)19 / 35
History coverage109d
Avg bet$1,094
Trades / day0.4
Drawdown31%
Kalshi-fit74%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 16 History 19 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $9,457 $9,546 +$89 (+1%)
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $2,000 $2,601 +$601 (+30%)
Spread: England (-1.5) England 31¢ 30¢ $2,000 $1,968 −$32 (-2%)
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: O/U 2.5 Over 50¢ 48¢ $1,000 $970 −$30 (-3%)
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 11¢ 11¢ $1,000 $936 −$64 (-6%)
Will South Korea win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $1,000 $700 −$300 (-30%)
Will Senegal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $500 $464 −$36 (-7%)
Will Belgium win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $500 $393 −$107 (-21%)
Portugal vs. DR Congo: Both Teams to Score Yes 41¢ 40¢ $300 $296 −$4 (-1%)
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 3.5 Over 32¢ 32¢ $300 $295 −$5 (-2%)
Will England vs. Croatia end in a draw? Yes 26¢ 26¢ $300 $294 −$6 (-2%)
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: O/U 3.5 Over 28¢ 28¢ $200 $196 −$4 (-2%)
Will Uzbekistan vs. Colombia end in a draw? Yes 20¢ 20¢ $200 $195 −$5 (-2%)
Harry Kane: 2+ goals Yes 18¢ 28¢ $100 $156 +$56 (+56%)
Harry Kane: 3+ goals Yes 27¢ $50 $152 +$102 (+204%)
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: O/U 5.5 Over $100 $92 −$8 (-8%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 10 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Spread: Austria (-1.5) Jun 17 $2,034 +$705 +35%
Spread: Austria (-2.5) Jun 17 $512 −$396 -78%
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 4.5 Jun 17 $205 −$52 -25%
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 5.5 Jun 17 $103 −$74 -72%
Spread: Argentina (-1.5) Jun 17 $356 +$458 +129%
Spread: Austria (-3.5) Jun 17 $205 −$200 -97%
Spread: Norway (-2.5) Jun 17 $510 +$879 +172%
Spread: France (-1.5) Jun 16 $1,017 +$1,363 +134%
France vs. Senegal: O/U 3.5 Jun 16 $306 +$662 +216%
Erling Haaland: 3+ goals Jun 16 $103 −$100 -98%
Spread: Spain (-2.5) Jun 15 $256 −$250 -98%
Spread: Spain (-1.5) Jun 15 $1,520 −$1,500 -99%
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 5.5 Jun 14 $2,042 +$4,662 +228%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 4.5 Jun 14 $1,021 −$1,000 -98%
Spread: Germany (-4.5) Jun 14 $4,079 +$7,686 +188%
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 7.5 Jun 14 $308 +$2,668 +866%
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 9.5 Jun 14 $103 −$100 -97%
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 8.5 Jun 14 $103 −$100 -97%
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the March 2026 mee Mar 17 $3,921 −$3,444 -88%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will England vs. Croatia end in a draw? BUY Yes 26¢ $307 53m
Harry Kane: 3+ goals BUY Yes $51 55m
Harry Kane: 2+ goals BUY Yes 18¢ $102 55m
Spread: England (-1.5) BUY England 31¢ $2,041 56m
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 32¢ $306 59m
Portugal vs. DR Congo: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 41¢ $305 1h
Will Uzbekistan vs. Colombia end in a draw? BUY Yes 20¢ $205 1h
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 28¢ $204 1h
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 50¢ $1,015 1h
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: O/U 5.5 BUY Over $103 1h
Spread: Austria (-1.5) SELL Austria 21¢ $466 3h
Spread: Austria (-2.5) SELL Austria $47 3h
Spread: Austria (-2.5) SELL Austria $54 3h
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 4.5 SELL Over 11¢ $144 3h
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 5.5 SELL Over $12 3h
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 5.5 SELL Over $12 3h
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 11¢ $1,027 6h
Spread: Austria (-1.5) BUY Austria 44¢ $2,034 6h
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 5.5 BUY Over $103 6h
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 4.5 BUY Over 15¢ $205 6h
Spread: Austria (-2.5) BUY Austria 23¢ $205 6h
Spread: Austria (-2.5) BUY Austria 23¢ $307 6h
Spread: Austria (-3.5) BUY Austria 11¢ $205 6h
France vs. Senegal: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 31¢ $306 21h
Spread: Argentina (-1.5) BUY Argentina 43¢ $356 21h
Erling Haaland: 3+ goals BUY Yes 16¢ $103 21h
Spread: Norway (-2.5) BUY Norway 36¢ $510 21h
Spread: France (-1.5) BUY France 42¢ $1,017 21h
Spread: Spain (-2.5) BUY Spain 23¢ $256 40h
Spread: Spain (-1.5) BUY Spain 55¢ $1,520 40h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $19,254.46 · official $19,254.46 (match) · 66 history records