Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T12:43:47+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.5
score
13 0x13d0…593d sports 12 markets active 17h ago coverage 106d
RISKYcopy with care sports specialist⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge
Total PnL +$13,311 (+52%) realized +$11,975 · open +$1,336
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +166% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +131% what you keep after slip
Net edge+131%after slip
Net WR50%break-even
Win rate50%3W / 3L
Drawdown32%max
Avg bet$2,125per market
Trades / day0.2pace
Fees−$156est.
Kalshi-fit58%portable
Net worth$15,793now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 106d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
other 55% +$1,253
sports 30% +$14,899
economics 15% −$3,444
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +50%
net ROI/market (all)+140.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 5 +216.5% +186.4% 60% 60% +192.7%
≤30d 5 +216.5% +186.4% 60% 60% +192.7%
≤90d 5 +216.5% +186.4% 60% 60% +192.7%
all 6 +165.8% +140.5% 50% 50% +88.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.2 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to20%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +140.5% 50% +88.0%
10% +117.5% 50% +70.0%
15% +96.5% 50% +53.6%
20% +77.2% 50% +38.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 51% · top 2 82% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +224% too few recent
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +166% · $-wt +108% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$5,005 vs −$1,215 · ×4.12 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×4.12 per $1 lost it wins $4.12
Copy size
≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

106d coverage
Net worth$15,793
Realized+$11,975
Unrealized+$1,336
Win rate (resolved)50%
Wins / losses3 / 3
Est. fees paid−$156
Open positions6
Markets (closed)6 / 12
History coverage106d
Avg bet$2,125
Trades / day0.2
Drawdown32%
Kalshi-fit58%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 6 History 6 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 6¢ 6¢ $9,457 $10,391 +$934 (+10%)
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 2¢ $2,000 $2,490 +$490 (+25%)
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 4.5 Over 30¢ 32¢ $1,000 $1,083 +$83 (+8%)
Will South Korea win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $1,000 $900 −$100 (-10%)
Will Belgium win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 2¢ $500 $464 −$36 (-7%)
Will Senegal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 1¢ 1¢ $500 $464 −$36 (-7%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 2 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 5.5 Jun 14 $2,042 +$4,662 +228%
Spread: Germany (-4.5) Jun 14 $4,079 +$7,686 +188%
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 7.5 Jun 14 $308 +$2,668 +866%
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 9.5 Jun 14 $103 −$100 -97%
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 8.5 Jun 14 $103 −$100 -97%
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the March 2026 mee Mar 17 $3,921 −$3,444 -88%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 4.5 BUY Over 30¢ $1,021 17h
Spread: Germany (-4.5) BUY Germany 34¢ $4,079 20h
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 5.5 BUY Over 30¢ $2,042 20h
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 9.5 BUY Over 2¢ $103 20h
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 8.5 BUY Over 5¢ $103 20h
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 7.5 BUY Over 10¢ $308 20h
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 2¢ $1,029 20h
Will Senegal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 1¢ $535 2d
Will Belgium win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 2¢ $535 2d
Will South Korea win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 0¢ $1,070 2d
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 1¢ $1,030 2d
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 6¢ $9,248 8d
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 5¢ $165 8d
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 5¢ $309 8d
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 5¢ $4 8d
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the March 2026 mee SELL No 0¢ $477 90d
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the March 2026 mee BUY No 4¢ $1,921 105d
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the March 2026 mee BUY No 5¢ $2,000 106d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $15,792.76 · official $15,792.76 (match) · 29 history records