Wallet analysis

2026-06-16T15:36:44+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
13 0x13d0…4d1b crypto 25 markets active 6d ago coverage 134d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL +$1 (+0%) realized +$1 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -9% what you keep after slip
Net edge-9%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate96%24W / 1L
Drawdown0%max
Avg bet$419per market
Trades / day0.2pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$11now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days+$0
14 days+$0
30 days+$0
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% $0
world 0% $0
finance 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-9.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 1 +0.1% -9.4% 100% 0% -9.4%
≤30d 1 +0.1% -9.4% 100% 0% -9.4%
≤90d 8 +0.1% -9.4% 100% 0% -9.4%
all 25 +0.2% -9.4% 96% 0% -9.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.2 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.4% 0% -9.5%
10% -18.1% 0% -18.2%
15% -26.0% 0% -26.1%
20% -33.2% 0% -33.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 18% · top 2 28% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +0% · $-wt +0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +0% → late +0% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$0 · ×11.24 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×269.68 per $1 lost it wins $269.68
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

134d coverage
Net worth$11
Realized+$1
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)96%
Wins / losses24 / 1
Open positions0
Markets (closed)25 / 25
History coverage134d
Avg bet$419
Trades / day0.2
Drawdown0%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 25 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $54,000 on June 11? Jun 11 $5 $0 +0%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $30 in May? May 17 $6 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,400 on April 6? May 17 $5 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on May 9? May 17 $8 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum reach $3,800 in March? Apr 06 $22 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $82,000 on March 22? Mar 28 $8 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $78,000 on March 19? Mar 21 $7 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,600 on March 16? Mar 18 $9 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $58,000 on March 13? Mar 15 $7 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,500 on March 9? Mar 13 $10 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $56,000 on March 8? Mar 13 $12 $0 +0%
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by March 31? Mar 13 $16 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,500 on February 28? Mar 13 $16 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $54,000 on March 3? Mar 13 $18 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,500 on February 22? Feb 26 $18 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $58,000 on February 20? Feb 26 $22 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on February 15? Feb 26 $26 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $80,000 on February 13? Feb 14 $20 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $74,000 and $76,000 on February 1 Feb 14 $33 $0 +0%
US strikes Iran by February 7, 2026? Feb 12 $8 $0 +1%
Will the price of Ethereum be between $2,700 and $2,800 on February 9? Feb 12 $28 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $3,100 on February 5? Feb 07 $15 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $3,300 on February 4? Feb 07 $52 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be greater than $98,000 on January 31? Feb 03 $33 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $150,000 in January? Jan 28 $10,072 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $54,000 on June 11? BUY Yes 100¢ $5 5d
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $30 in May? BUY No 100¢ $6 30d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on May 9? BUY Yes 100¢ $8 39d
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,400 on April 6? BUY No 100¢ $5 71d
Will Ethereum reach $3,800 in March? BUY No 100¢ $22 80d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $82,000 on March 22? BUY No 100¢ $8 87d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $78,000 on March 19? BUY No 100¢ $7 89d
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,600 on March 16? BUY Yes 100¢ $9 93d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $58,000 on March 13? BUY Yes 100¢ $7 95d
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,500 on March 9? BUY No 100¢ $10 100d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $56,000 on March 8? BUY Yes 100¢ $12 101d
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by March 31? BUY Yes 100¢ $16 105d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $54,000 on March 3? BUY Yes 100¢ $18 106d
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,500 on February 28? BUY Yes 100¢ $16 109d
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,500 on February 22? BUY No 100¢ $18 115d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $58,000 on February 20? BUY Yes 100¢ $22 116d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on February 15? BUY Yes 100¢ $26 121d
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $74,000 and $76,000 on February 1 BUY No 100¢ $33 123d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $80,000 on February 13? BUY No 100¢ $20 124d
Will the price of Ethereum be between $2,700 and $2,800 on February 9? BUY No 100¢ $28 128d
US strikes Iran by February 7, 2026? BUY No 99¢ $8 129d
Will the price of Ethereum be above $3,100 on February 5? BUY No 100¢ $15 132d
Will the price of Ethereum be above $3,300 on February 4? BUY No 100¢ $52 133d
Will the price of Bitcoin be greater than $98,000 on January 31? BUY No 100¢ $33 137d
Will Bitcoin reach $150,000 in January? SELL No 100¢ $10,072 138d
Will Bitcoin reach $150,000 in January? BUY No 100¢ $10,072 139d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $11.01 · official $11.01 (match) · 48 history records