Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T02:32:00+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
13 0x13d0…ce0f other 57 markets active 0h ago coverage 333d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit from just two bets (not replicable)✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL −$83 (-7%) realized −$83 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt -2% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -11% what you keep after slip
Net edge-11%after slip
Net WR4%break-even
Win rate25%14W / 43L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$21per market
Trades / day0.5pace
Kalshi-fit70%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$7
7 days−$5
14 days−$2
30 days−$2
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 51% −$2
other 22% $0
politics 12% $0
crypto 10% −$82
tech 3% $0
culture 1% $0
sports 1% $0
economics 1% $0
finance 1% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +4%
net ROI/market (all)-10.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 5 +5.3% -4.7% 40% 40% -10.9%
≤30d 13 +0.8% -8.8% 23% 15% -9.8%
≤90d 13 +0.8% -8.8% 23% 15% -9.8%
all 57 -1.5% -10.9% 25% 4% -15.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.5 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -10.9% 4% -15.8%
10% -19.4% 0% -23.9%
15% -27.2% 0% -31.2%
20% -34.4% 0% -38.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 48% · top 2 77% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
86% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -2% · $-wt -7% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -4% → late +1% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$5 · ×0.08 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.07 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

333d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$83
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)25%
Wins / losses14 / 43
Open positions0
Markets (closed)57 / 57
History coverage333d
Avg bet$21
Trades / day0.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit70%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 57 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? Jun 20 $142 −$7 -5%
US strike on Cuba by December 31? Jun 18 $152 $0 +0%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? Jun 17 $3 $0 +0%
Israel closes its airspace by June 9? Jun 16 $1 $0 +12%
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? Jun 15 $9 +$2 +19%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 12 $101 +$3 +3%
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 10 $18 $0 +0%
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia Jun 09 $51 $0 +0%
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? Jun 08 $3 $0 -19%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? Jun 07 $118 $0 +0%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? Jun 06 $54 $0 +0%
Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026? Jun 05 $54 $0 -0%
Will Alireza Arafi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? Jun 05 $53 $0 +0%
Will 5 Fed rate cuts happen in 2025? Dec 04 $7 $0 +1%
Will Elon Musk be the #1 searched person on Google this year? Nov 19 $11 $0 +1%
Will Pete Buttigieg win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Oct 24 $5 $0 +0%
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals? Oct 23 $6 $0 -1%
Will Dwayne 'The Rock' Johnson win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Oct 07 $6 $0 +0%
Will the US confirm that aliens exist in 2025? Oct 07 $5 $0 +2%
Will Gabriela Firea be the next Mayor of Bucharest? Oct 02 $7 $0 +0%
Will People's Party for Freedom and Democracy win the most seats in th Oct 02 $7 $0 +0%
Xi Jinping out before October? Oct 02 $8 $0 +3%
Will Bitcoin dip to $103K in September? Sep 25 $5 $0 -2%
Will Apple be the largest company in the world by market cap on Decemb Sep 25 $4 $0 -1%
Will Ciprian Ciucu be the next Mayor of Bucharest? Sep 24 $5 $0 -0%
Will Xi Jinping be TIME's Person of the Year for 2025? Sep 24 $5 $0 +0%
Will Solana dip to $160 in September? Sep 24 $5 $0 -2%
Will Vitinha win the 2025 Ballon d'Or? Sep 24 $8 $0 +2%
Will the 10-year Treasury yield hit 5.7% in 2025? Aug 13 $7 $0 +0%
Will Xi Jinping be the first leader out in 2025? Aug 12 $8 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $122K August 4–10? Aug 12 $81 −$81 -100%
Will Ethereum reach $6200 in August? Aug 11 $8 $0 -1%
Will annual inflation increase by 3.0% or more in July? Aug 11 $8 $0 -1%
Will Elon Musk win Nobel Peace Prize in 2025? Aug 11 $16 $0 +0%
Will Solana dip to $130 in July? Aug 10 $5 $0 +1%
Will LDP win the most seats in the House of Councillors following the Aug 10 $85 $0 +0%
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the first leader out in 2025? Jul 27 $5 $0 +0%
Will Anthropic have the top AI model on December 31? Jul 27 $5 $0 +0%
Will ODS win the most seats in the next Czech parliamentary election? Jul 27 $5 $0 +0%
Will Ferrari be the 2025 Constructors Champion? Jul 27 $13 $0 -0%
Will the New York Mets win the 2025 World Series? Jul 26 $5 $0 -0%
Will the U.S. tariff rate on China be greater than 150% on August 15? Jul 26 $5 $0 +0%
Will Tesla be the largest company in the world by market cap on Decemb Jul 26 $5 $0 +0%
Will the Los Angeles Rams win Super Bowl 2026? Jul 26 $5 $0 +0%
Will the Minnesota Twins win the 2025 World Series? Jul 25 $5 $0 +0%
Will OpenAI have the top AI model on July 31? Jul 25 $5 $0 -0%
Will Tulsi Gabbard win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jul 25 $5 $0 +0%
Will Eric Adams win the 2025 NYC mayoral election? Jul 25 $5 $0 +0%
Will the Houston Astros win the 2025 World Series? Jul 24 $5 $0 -0%
Will the U.S. tariff rate on China be less than 25% on August 15? Jul 24 $8 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? SELL No 53¢ $34 0m
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? BUY No 53¢ $34 1h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? SELL Yes 48¢ $47 6h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? BUY Yes 53¢ $52 20h
US strike on Cuba by December 31? SELL Yes 53¢ $5 39h
US strike on Cuba by December 31? SELL Yes 53¢ $10 41h
US strike on Cuba by December 31? SELL Yes 53¢ $47 41h
US strike on Cuba by December 31? BUY Yes 53¢ $62 41h
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes $0 2d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes $1 2d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes $1 2d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes $3 2d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? SELL Yes $8 4d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? SELL Yes $3 7d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? BUY Yes $9 7d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL Yes 84¢ $40 7d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL Yes 84¢ $8 7d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY Yes 77¢ $30 7d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY Yes 77¢ $14 7d
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? SELL Yes 29¢ $4 9d
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? SELL Yes 29¢ $14 9d
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? BUY Yes 29¢ $1 9d
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? BUY Yes 29¢ $1 9d
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? BUY Yes 29¢ $15 9d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia SELL Yes 55¢ $51 10d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia BUY Yes 55¢ $51 10d
US strike on Cuba by December 31? SELL Yes 39¢ $5 10d
US strike on Cuba by December 31? SELL Yes 39¢ $51 10d
US strike on Cuba by December 31? BUY Yes 39¢ $56 10d
Israel closes its airspace by June 9? SELL Yes $1 10d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 156 history records