Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T10:10:53+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
13 0x13d0…56d5 crypto 1246 markets active 2h ago coverage 92d ⚠
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 91d only
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL −$89 (-1%) realized −$89 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -23% what you keep after slip
Net edge-23%after slip
Net WR34%break-even
Win rate34%424W / 818L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$5per market
Trades / day36.7pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$37
7 days−$202
14 days−$43
30 days−$112
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% −$134
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +34%
net ROI/market (all)-9.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 170 -8.7% -17.4% 31% 30% -21.6%
≤30d 756 -0.3% -9.8% 33% 33% -11.9%
≤90d 1226 +0.0% -9.5% 34% 34% -11.9%
all 1242 +0.1% -9.5% 34% 34% -11.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover36.7 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -9.5% 34% -11.0%
10% ← realistic here -18.1% 33% -19.5%
15% -26.0% 33% -27.3%
20% -33.3% 32% -34.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 1% · top 2 2% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -3% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
1% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +0% · $-wt -2% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -4% → late +4% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.0 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$9 vs −$5 · ×1.86 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.97 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

92d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$89
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)34%
Wins / losses424 / 818
Open positions0
Markets (closed)1242 / 1246
History coverage92d ⚠
Avg bet$5
Trades / day36.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 1242 Trades
no open positions (500 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:30AM-4:45AM ET Jun 17 $8 −$8 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:00AM-4:15AM ET Jun 17 $8 −$8 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:15AM-1:30AM ET Jun 17 $8 +$16 +216%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:45AM-1:00AM ET Jun 17 $7 +$16 +216%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:45PM-10:00PM ET Jun 17 $7 −$7 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:15PM-8:30PM ET Jun 17 $7 −$6 -75%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:45PM-8:00PM ET Jun 16 $8 −$8 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:00PM-7:15PM ET Jun 16 $7 +$9 +128%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:45PM-7:00PM ET Jun 16 $7 +$15 +216%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:30PM-6:45PM ET Jun 16 $7 −$7 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:00PM-4:15PM ET Jun 16 $7 +$15 +216%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:30PM-3:45PM ET Jun 16 $7 +$14 +216%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:15PM-3:30PM ET Jun 16 $6 +$12 +187%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:00PM-2:15PM ET Jun 16 $7 −$7 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:45PM-2:00PM ET Jun 16 $7 −$7 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:15PM-1:30PM ET Jun 16 $6 +$14 +217%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:45AM-12:00PM ET Jun 16 $6 +$13 +216%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:30AM-10:45AM ET Jun 16 $9 +$19 +217%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:15AM-10:30AM ET Jun 16 $9 −$9 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:15AM-9:30AM ET Jun 16 $4 +$9 +216%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:30AM-8:45AM ET Jun 16 $6 +$12 +216%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:15AM-8:30AM ET Jun 16 $6 −$5 -88%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:30AM-7:45AM ET Jun 16 $6 −$6 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:45AM-7:00AM ET Jun 16 $6 −$6 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:15AM-6:30AM ET Jun 16 $6 −$6 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:15AM-5:30AM ET Jun 16 $6 −$6 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:30AM-4:45AM ET Jun 16 $6 −$5 -88%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:15AM-4:30AM ET Jun 16 $6 −$6 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:00AM-4:15AM ET Jun 16 $6 −$6 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:45AM-3:00AM ET Jun 16 $7 −$6 -91%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:30AM-1:45AM ET Jun 16 $6 +$8 +122%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:30AM-12:45AM ET Jun 16 $7 −$7 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:00AM-12:15AM ET Jun 16 $6 +$6 +101%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:00PM-10:15PM ET Jun 16 $7 −$7 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:30PM-9:45PM ET Jun 16 $6 +$9 +149%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:00PM-8:15PM ET Jun 16 $6 +$13 +216%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:30PM-7:45PM ET Jun 15 $6 +$1 +15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:30PM-5:45PM ET Jun 15 $6 +$13 +216%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:45PM-5:00PM ET Jun 15 $6 −$6 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:00PM-4:15PM ET Jun 15 $6 +$2 +38%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:30PM-1:45PM ET Jun 15 $6 +$12 +216%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:15PM-12:30PM ET Jun 15 $6 −$6 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:45AM-12:00PM ET Jun 15 $6 −$6 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:30AM-11:45AM ET Jun 15 $6 −$6 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:00AM-11:15AM ET Jun 15 $6 −$6 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:45AM-11:00AM ET Jun 15 $9 −$9 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:15AM-10:30AM ET Jun 15 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:00AM-10:15AM ET Jun 15 $10 $0 -2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:15AM-9:30AM ET Jun 15 $7 −$7 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:15AM-7:30AM ET Jun 15 $7 −$7 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:30AM-4:45AM ET BUY Up 30¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:30AM-4:45AM ET BUY Up 30¢ $0 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:30AM-4:45AM ET BUY Up 30¢ $6 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:00AM-4:15AM ET BUY Up 30¢ $1 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:00AM-4:15AM ET BUY Up 30¢ $1 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:00AM-4:15AM ET BUY Up 30¢ $2 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:00AM-4:15AM ET BUY Up 30¢ $2 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:00AM-4:15AM ET BUY Up 30¢ $0 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:00AM-4:15AM ET BUY Up 30¢ $2 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:15AM-1:30AM ET SELL Up 95¢ $5 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:15AM-1:30AM ET SELL Up 95¢ $3 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:15AM-1:30AM ET SELL Up 95¢ $1 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:15AM-1:30AM ET SELL Up 95¢ $15 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:15AM-1:30AM ET BUY Up 30¢ $8 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:45AM-1:00AM ET SELL Down 95¢ $17 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:45AM-1:00AM ET SELL Down 95¢ $6 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:45AM-1:00AM ET BUY Down 30¢ $0 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:45AM-1:00AM ET BUY Down 30¢ $5 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:45AM-1:00AM ET BUY Down 30¢ $1 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:45AM-1:00AM ET BUY Down 30¢ $1 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:45AM-1:00AM ET BUY Down 30¢ $0 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:45PM-10:00PM ET BUY Down 30¢ $7 8h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:15PM-8:30PM ET SELL Up 8¢ $2 9h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:15PM-8:30PM ET BUY Up 30¢ $2 9h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:15PM-8:30PM ET BUY Up 30¢ $2 9h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:15PM-8:30PM ET BUY Up 30¢ $1 9h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:15PM-8:30PM ET BUY Up 30¢ $2 9h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:15PM-8:30PM ET BUY Up 30¢ $2 9h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:45PM-8:00PM ET BUY Up 30¢ $2 10h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:45PM-8:00PM ET BUY Up 30¢ $4 10h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 3434 history records