Wallet analysis

2026-06-22T14:53:49+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
13 0x13d1…6a48 crypto 63 markets active 2h ago coverage 5d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$22 (-6%) realized −$21 · open −$1
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -8% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -29% what you keep after slip
Net edge-29%after slip
Net WR45%break-even
Win rate48%28W / 30L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$6per market
Trades / day24.8pace
Fees−$2est.
Kalshi-fit89%portable
Net worth$61now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 5d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 43% +$1
crypto 30% −$29
weather 16% −$6
other 11% +$8
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +45%
net ROI/market (all)-16.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 58 -8.0% -16.7% 48% 45% -16.6%
≤30d 58 -8.0% -16.7% 48% 45% -16.6%
≤90d 58 -8.0% -16.7% 48% 45% -16.6%
all 58 -8.0% -16.7% 48% 45% -16.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover24.8 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -16.7% 45% -16.6%
10% ← realistic here -24.7% 41% -24.6%
15% -32.0% 36% -31.9%
20% -38.6% 29% -38.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 14% · top 2 28% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -8% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
7% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -8% · $-wt -8% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -5% → late -10% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.7 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$3 vs −$4 · ×0.85 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.79 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

5d coverage
Net worth$61
Realized−$21
Unrealized−$1
Win rate (resolved)48%
Wins / losses28 / 30
Est. fees paid−$2
Open positions5
Markets (closed)58 / 63
History coverage5d
Avg bet$6
Trades / day24.8
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit89%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 5 History 58 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Targu Mures: Cezar Cretu vs Akira Santillan Cezar Cretu 89¢ 88¢ $27 $26 −$0 (-1%)
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 13¢ 13¢ $15 $15 −$0 (-3%)
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 14¢ 14¢ $7 $7 +$0 (+1%)
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 6¢ 6¢ $7 $7 −$0 (-4%)
Will the highest temperature in London be 34°C on June 23? Yes 32¢ 30¢ $7 $6 −$1 (-8%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 21 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bad Homburg Open: Naomi Osaka vs Magdalena Frech Jun 22 $15 +$5 +36%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 24°C on June 22? Jun 22 $44 −$1 -3%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 25°C on June 22? Jun 22 $8 −$4 -54%
Spread: Uruguay (-2.5) Jun 22 $5 −$5 -100%
Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 4.5 Jun 21 $4 $0 +7%
Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde: Cabo Verde O/U 1.5 Jun 21 $3 +$8 +262%
Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde: Both Teams to Score Jun 21 $7 +$13 +178%
Belgium vs. IR Iran: Both Teams to Score Jun 21 $10 −$10 -100%
Spread: Belgium (-1.5) Jun 21 $11 −$9 -86%
Spread: Spain (-4.5) Jun 21 $24 −$18 -73%
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: Saudi Arabia O/U 0.5 Jun 21 $14 +$1 +6%
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: O/U 4.5 Jun 21 $8 +$1 +13%
Spread: Spain (-2.5) Jun 21 $25 +$13 +52%
Tunisia vs. Japan: O/U 4.5 Jun 21 $1 −$1 -97%
Tunisia vs. Japan: O/U 3.5 Jun 21 $1 +$1 +101%
Tunisia vs. Japan: Both Teams to Score Jun 21 $2 −$1 -60%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 6:20PM-6:25PM ET Jun 20 $2 −$2 -97%
Will Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire end in a draw? Jun 20 $1 −$1 -98%
Netherlands vs. Sweden: Both Teams to Score Jun 20 $1 +$1 +70%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 2:55PM-3:00PM ET Jun 20 $1 −$1 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 2:30PM-2:35PM ET Jun 20 $1 $0 +46%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 2:20PM-2:25PM ET Jun 20 $1 −$1 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 2:15PM-2:20PM ET Jun 20 $1 −$1 -96%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $4 +$3 +73%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 7:50PM-7:55PM ET Jun 19 $1 −$1 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 7:10PM-7:15PM ET Jun 19 $2 −$2 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 7:00PM-7:05PM ET Jun 19 $1 $0 +40%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 6:50PM-6:55PM ET Jun 19 $1 $0 +28%
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? Jun 19 $2 +$1 +62%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 7:35PM-7:40PM ET Jun 18 $2 −$2 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 7:30PM-7:35PM ET Jun 18 $2 $0 +20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 7:20PM-7:25PM ET Jun 18 $2 −$1 -26%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 7:05PM-7:10PM ET Jun 18 $2 +$1 +26%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 7:00PM-7:05PM ET Jun 18 $1 +$1 +50%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 6:50PM-6:55PM ET Jun 18 $3 −$3 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 6:40PM-6:45PM ET Jun 18 $17 −$17 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 6:25PM-6:30PM ET Jun 18 $14 +$7 +50%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 6:20PM-6:25PM ET Jun 18 $12 −$12 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 6:10PM-6:15PM ET Jun 18 $6 +$12 +185%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 6:05PM-6:10PM ET Jun 18 $13 −$12 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 6:00PM-6:05PM ET Jun 18 $4 +$3 +76%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 5:50PM-5:55PM ET Jun 18 $4 +$3 +80%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 5:45PM-5:50PM ET Jun 18 $2 +$1 +56%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 5:35PM-5:40PM ET Jun 18 $6 +$3 +53%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $3 +$2 +57%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 5:00PM-5:05PM ET Jun 18 $1 −$1 -96%
Will Czechia vs. South Africa end in a draw? Jun 18 $2 +$5 +238%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 2:40AM-2:45AM ET Jun 18 $1 −$1 -95%
Spread: Ghana (-1.5) Jun 18 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? Jun 18 $2 +$3 +146%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Targu Mures: Cezar Cretu vs Akira Santillan BUY Cezar Cretu 89¢ $27 1h
Will the highest temperature in London be 34°C on June 23? BUY Yes 32¢ $7 2h
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 24°C on June 22? SELL Yes 87¢ $43 6h
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 24°C on June 22? BUY Yes 89¢ $44 6h
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 25°C on June 22? SELL Yes 8¢ $4 7h
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 25°C on June 22? BUY Yes 17¢ $3 8h
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 25°C on June 22? BUY Yes 15¢ $4 8h
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 25°C on June 22? BUY Yes 15¢ $0 8h
Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 4.5 SELL Under 42¢ $4 15h
Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 4.5 BUY Under 38¢ $4 15h
Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde: Cabo Verde O/U 1.5 SELL Over 100¢ $11 15h
Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde: Cabo Verde O/U 1.5 BUY Over 27¢ $3 15h
Spread: Uruguay (-2.5) BUY Uruguay 26¢ $5 15h
Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde: Both Teams to Score SELL Yes 100¢ $20 16h
Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 36¢ $7 17h
Spread: Belgium (-1.5) SELL Belgium 6¢ $1 18h
Belgium vs. IR Iran: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 48¢ $10 20h
Spread: Belgium (-1.5) BUY Belgium 43¢ $11 20h
Bad Homburg Open: Naomi Osaka vs Magdalena Frech BUY Naomi Osaka 73¢ $15 20h
Spread: Spain (-4.5) SELL Spain 17¢ $7 20h
Spread: Spain (-4.5) BUY Spain 55¢ $11 21h
Spread: Spain (-4.5) BUY Spain 67¢ $0 21h
Spread: Spain (-4.5) BUY Spain 67¢ $13 21h
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: Saudi Arabia O/U 0.5 SELL Under 74¢ $15 21h
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: O/U 4.5 SELL Over 87¢ $9 21h
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: Saudi Arabia O/U 0.5 BUY Under 69¢ $0 21h
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: Saudi Arabia O/U 0.5 BUY Under 69¢ $14 21h
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: O/U 4.5 BUY Over 76¢ $8 22h
Spread: Spain (-2.5) SELL Spain 95¢ $38 22h
Spread: Spain (-2.5) BUY Spain 70¢ $10 22h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $60.97 · official $60.97 (match) · 148 history records