trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?
| timeframe | markets | gross ROI | NET ROI | gross WR | NET WR | net PnL (wtd) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ≤7d | no closed markets | |||||
| ≤30d | no closed markets | |||||
| ≤90d | 5 | -34.9% | -41.1% | 40% | 20% | -23.3% |
| all | 9 | -39.4% | -45.2% | 22% | 11% | -20.1% |
| copier slippage | NET ROI | NET WR | net PnL (wtd) |
|---|---|---|---|
| 5% ideal ← realistic here | -45.2% | 11% | -20.1% |
| 10% | -50.4% | 11% | -27.8% |
| 15% | -55.2% | 11% | -34.8% |
| 20% | -59.6% | 11% | -41.1% |
| Market | outcome | entry | now | invested | value | unrealized PnL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ebola pandemic in 2026? | No | 93¢ | 92¢ | $46 | $46 | −$0 (-1%) |
| Market | when | invested | PnL | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Timberwolves vs. Spurs | May 11 | $52 | −$51 | -98% |
| Celtics vs. 76ers | Apr 26 | $122 | −$119 | -98% |
| Will the Iranian regime fall by April 30? | Apr 08 | $17 | −$8 | -45% |
| Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? | Apr 02 | $181 | +$2 | +1% |
| Jets vs. Bruins | Mar 22 | $142 | +$98 | +70% |
| Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the March 2026 me | Mar 16 | $2 | −$1 | -75% |
| Will Manchester United win the 2025–26 English Premier League? | Mar 08 | $170 | −$1 | -0% |
| Will Pete Buttigieg win the 2028 US Presidential Election? | Mar 04 | $5 | $0 | -5% |
| Will DeepSeek have the best AI model at the end of February 2026? | Feb 26 | $1 | −$1 | -100% |