Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T10:21:38+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
13 0x13d5…e167 weather 180 markets active 2h ago coverage 188d
TRAPdo not copy weather specialistFresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$2 (-0%) realized −$2 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -10% what you keep after slip
Net edge-10%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate99%178W / 1L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$18per market
Trades / day1.0pace
Kalshi-fit96%portable
Net worth$25now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$0
7 days+$0
14 days+$0
30 days+$1
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
weather 94% −$3
world 3% +$1
other 2% $0
economics 1% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-9.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 7 +0.1% -9.4% 100% 0% -9.4%
≤30d 34 +0.1% -9.4% 100% 0% -9.4%
≤90d 91 +0.2% -9.3% 100% 0% -9.3%
all 179 -0.2% -9.7% 99% 0% -9.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.0 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.7% 0% -9.6%
10% -18.4% 0% -18.2%
15% -26.3% 0% -26.1%
20% -33.5% 0% -33.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 11% · top 2 17% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -0% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -1% → late +0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$8 · ×0.0 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.77 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

188d coverage
Net worth$25
Realized−$2
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)99%
Wins / losses178 / 1
Open positions1
Markets (closed)179 / 180
History coverage188d
Avg bet$18
Trades / day1.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit96%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 179 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the highest temperature in Busan be 27°C on June 21? Yes 100¢ 100¢ $25 $25 +$0 (+0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 28°C on June 20? Jun 20 $25 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 31°C on June 19? Jun 19 $25 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 42°C or higher on June 18? Jun 18 $25 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 25°C or below on June 17? Jun 17 $25 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 25°C on June 16? Jun 16 $25 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 72-73°F on June 14? Jun 15 $25 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 31°C on June 14? Jun 14 $25 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 24°C on June 13? Jun 13 $25 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 82-83°F on June 11? Jun 12 $25 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 27°C on June 11? Jun 11 $25 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 28°C or higher on June 10? Jun 10 $25 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 41°C on June 9? Jun 09 $25 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 14°C on June 9? Jun 09 $25 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 20°C on June 8? Jun 08 $25 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 34°C or higher on June 7? Jun 07 $25 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Busan be 28°C on June 6? Jun 06 $25 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 18°C on June 5? Jun 05 $25 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 39°C on June 4? Jun 04 $25 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Qingdao be 24°C or below on June 3? Jun 03 $25 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Manila be 32°C or higher on June 2? Jun 02 $25 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 31°C on June 1? Jun 01 $25 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 70-71°F on Ma May 31 $25 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 33°C on May 30? May 30 $24 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 33°C on May 29? May 30 $24 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 31°C on May 28? May 28 $24 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Busan be 22°C on May 27? May 27 $24 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 34°C on May 26? May 26 $24 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 16°C on May 25? May 25 $24 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 14°C on May 24? May 25 $24 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 34°C on May 24? May 24 $24 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 64-65°F on May 23? May 24 $24 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 31°C on May 23? May 23 $24 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 15°C on May 23? May 23 $24 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 17°C on May 22? May 23 $24 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 24°C or higher on May 17? May 22 $24 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Qingdao be 27°C on May 15? May 15 $24 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Jakarta be 34°C on May 14? May 14 $24 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 56-57°F on May 13? May 14 $24 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 23°C or higher on May 13? May 13 $24 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Jakarta be 36°C on May 12? May 12 $24 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 66-67°F on May May 12 $24 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Jeddah be 35°C on May 11? May 11 $24 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 13°C on May 11? May 11 $24 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Busan be 27°C or higher on May 10? May 10 $24 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Busan be 27°C or higher on May 9? May 09 $24 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Jakarta be 34°C on May 8? May 08 $24 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Jeddah be 28°C on May 8? May 08 $24 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Karachi be 29°C on May 8? May 08 $24 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Manila be 37°C on May 7? May 07 $24 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 68-69°F on May 6? May 07 $23 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the highest temperature in Busan be 27°C on June 21? BUY Yes 100¢ $25 1h
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 28°C on June 20? BUY Yes 100¢ $25 26h
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 31°C on June 19? BUY Yes 100¢ $25 2d
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 42°C or higher on June 18? BUY No 100¢ $25 2d
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 25°C or below on June 17? BUY Yes 100¢ $25 4d
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 25°C on June 16? BUY Yes 100¢ $25 5d
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 72-73°F on June 14? BUY No 100¢ $25 6d
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 31°C on June 14? BUY Yes 100¢ $25 6d
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 24°C on June 13? BUY Yes 100¢ $25 8d
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 82-83°F on June 11? BUY Yes 100¢ $25 9d
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 27°C on June 11? BUY No 100¢ $25 10d
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 28°C or higher on June 10? BUY No 100¢ $25 10d
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 41°C on June 9? BUY Yes 100¢ $25 11d
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 14°C on June 9? BUY No 100¢ $25 12d
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 20°C on June 8? BUY No 100¢ $25 12d
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 34°C or higher on June 7? BUY No 100¢ $25 14d
Will the highest temperature in Busan be 28°C on June 6? BUY No 100¢ $25 15d
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 18°C on June 5? BUY Yes 100¢ $25 16d
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 39°C on June 4? BUY No 100¢ $25 17d
Will the highest temperature in Qingdao be 24°C or below on June 3? BUY Yes 100¢ $25 17d
Will the highest temperature in Manila be 32°C or higher on June 2? BUY Yes 100¢ $25 19d
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 31°C on June 1? BUY No 100¢ $25 20d
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 70-71°F on Ma BUY Yes 100¢ $25 21d
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 33°C on May 30? BUY No 100¢ $24 21d
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 33°C on May 29? BUY No 100¢ $24 23d
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 31°C on May 28? BUY No 100¢ $24 24d
Will the highest temperature in Busan be 22°C on May 27? BUY No 100¢ $24 25d
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 34°C on May 26? BUY No 100¢ $24 26d
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 16°C on May 25? BUY No 100¢ $24 27d
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 14°C on May 24? BUY Yes 100¢ $24 27d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $25.11 · official $25.11 (match) · 362 history records