Wallet analysis

2026-06-25T04:52:03+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
13 0x13dd…b2b7 crypto 761 markets active 2h ago coverage 468d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$1,634 (+2%) realized +$1,610 · open +$24
Gross ROI / mkt -8% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -20% what you keep after slip
Net edge-20%after slip
Net WR27%break-even
Win rate28%212W / 547L
Whale WR40%big bets
Drawdown99%max
Avg bet$93per market
Trades / day4.6pace
Fees−$40est.
Kalshi-fit96%portable
Net worth$154now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$1,250
7 days−$1,808
14 days−$735
30 days−$562
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 68% −$86
politics 13% +$1,334
sports 8% +$3,117
other 5% −$685
world 4% −$734
economics 1% −$981
tech 0% −$176
weather 0% −$179
culture 0% +$19
finance 0% −$69
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +27%
net ROI/market (all)-16.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 8 -74.9% -77.3% 12% 12% -88.2%
≤30d 16 -28.6% -35.4% 31% 25% -26.0%
≤90d 153 -9.6% -18.2% 29% 27% -1.7%
all 759 -7.9% -16.6% 28% 27% -7.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover4.6 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -16.6% 27% -7.7%
10% -24.6% 25% -16.6%
15% -31.9% 24% -24.6%
20% -38.6% 22% -32.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 14% · top 2 18% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +8% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
4% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -8% · $-wt +2% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR 40% (≥$500) big bets weaker
Persistence
early +11% → late -26% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
2.5 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$209 vs −$78 · ×2.67 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.04 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

468d coverage
Net worth$154
Realized+$1,610
Unrealized+$24
Win rate (resolved)28%
Wins / losses212 / 547
Whale WR (big bets)40%
Est. fees paid−$40
Open positions2
Markets (closed)759 / 761
History coverage468d
Avg bet$93
Trades / day4.6
Drawdown99%
Kalshi-fit96%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 759 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $100 $133 +$33 (+33%)
Will Ivory Coast win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $30 $21 −$9 (-30%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 225 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-24? Jun 25 $1,216 −$1,200 -99%
Will Czechia vs. Mexico end in a draw? Jun 25 $51 −$50 -98%
Will Brazil vs. Haiti end in a draw? Jun 20 $41 −$40 -97%
Will Haiti win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $21 −$20 -97%
Will Scotland vs. Morocco end in a draw? Jun 19 $51 −$50 -98%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? Jun 19 $134 +$136 +101%
Will Mexico vs. Korea Republic end in a draw? Jun 19 $188 −$183 -98%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-18? Jun 19 $410 −$400 -98%
Will Iraq vs. Norway end in a draw? Jun 16 $41 −$40 -97%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? Jun 12 $421 +$1,113 +265%
Will Arsenal FC win on 2026-05-30? May 30 $95 −$94 -99%
UFC Fight Night: Alonzo Menifield vs. Zhang Mingyang (Light Heavyweigh May 30 $10 +$21 +206%
UFC Fight Night: Song Yadong vs. Deiveson Figueiredo (Bantamweight, Ma May 30 $10 −$10 -98%
UFC Fight Night: Sergei Pavlovich vs. Tallison Teixeira (Heavyweight, May 30 $10 −$10 -98%
Will Republic of Ireland win on 2026-05-28? May 29 $393 +$265 +67%
Will Oh Se-hoon win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election May 27 $28 +$1 +4%
UFC Fight Night: Dooho Choi vs. Daniel Santos (Featherweight, Main Car May 17 $397 +$572 +144%
UFC 328: Sean Strickland vs. Khamzat Chimaev (Middleweight, Main Card) May 10 $323 +$1,264 +392%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $78,000 on April 25? Apr 26 $41 +$45 +110%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $78,000 on April 24? Apr 25 $91 +$95 +104%
Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by April 7? Apr 24 $315 −$315 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $78,000 on April 23? Apr 23 $91 −$87 -96%
Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by June 30? Apr 22 $30 −$30 -100%
Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by May 15? Apr 22 $50 −$50 -100%
GPT-5.5 released by April 30, 2026? Apr 22 $53 −$52 -98%
Will there be at least 1750 measles cases in the U.S. by April 30, 202 Apr 22 $1 $0 +28%
Will there be at least 1800 measles cases in the U.S. by April 30, 202 Apr 22 $30 −$22 -75%
Will Bitcoin reach $110,000 by December 31, 2026? Apr 22 $20 $0 -0%
US recession by end of 2026? Apr 22 $30 −$4 -13%
Will there be at least 7500 measles cases in the U.S. in 2026? Apr 22 $59 −$32 -54%
Will Bitcoin dip to $55,000 by December 31, 2026? Apr 22 $100 +$16 +16%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by June 30, 2026? Apr 22 $418 −$162 -39%
Will Bitcoin reach $100,000 by December 31, 2026? Apr 22 $30 +$8 +27%
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by May 31? Apr 22 $30 +$10 +34%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? Apr 22 $40 +$18 +45%
Will Bitcoin dip to $45,000 by December 31, 2026? Apr 22 $290 +$13 +5%
Will Google have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? Apr 22 $140 −$55 -40%
Will the next Prime Minister of Hungary be Péter Magyar? Apr 22 $60 +$32 +54%
Will Bitcoin have the best performance in 2026? Apr 22 $100 −$1 -1%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by April 30, 2026? Apr 22 $120 +$47 +39%
Will the Court Force Trump to Refund Tariffs? Apr 22 $50 +$141 +283%
Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027? Apr 22 $200 +$110 +55%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $78,000 on April 19? Apr 22 $5 +$4 +88%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $74,000 on April 15? Apr 22 $20 +$50 +251%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $76,000 on April 21? Apr 22 $20 +$56 +278%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $76,000 on April 20? Apr 22 $20 +$59 +294%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $78,000 on April 17? Apr 22 $50 +$42 +84%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $78,000 on April 20? Apr 22 $55 +$45 +82%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $76,000 on April 19? Apr 22 $30 +$79 +264%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $76,000 on April 25? Apr 22 $35 −$34 -96%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 10¢ $103 2h
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 38¢ $102 2h
Will Czechia vs. Mexico end in a draw? BUY Yes 24¢ $51 3h
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 61¢ $1,012 4d
Will Brazil vs. Haiti end in a draw? BUY Yes 10¢ $41 5d
Will Haiti win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes $21 5d
Will Scotland vs. Morocco end in a draw? BUY Yes 15¢ $51 5d
Will Mexico vs. Korea Republic end in a draw? BUY Yes 13¢ $51 6d
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes $103 6d
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 22¢ $102 6d
Will Iraq vs. Norway end in a draw? BUY Yes 12¢ $41 8d
Will Mexico vs. Korea Republic end in a draw? BUY Yes 29¢ $68 8d
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 49¢ $134 8d
Will Mexico vs. Korea Republic end in a draw? BUY Yes 29¢ $68 8d
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 23¢ $205 10d
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? SELL Yes 100¢ $1,534 13d
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? BUY Yes $51 13d
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $103 14d
Will Ivory Coast win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $31 16d
Will Arsenal FC win on 2026-05-30? SELL Yes $1 25d
UFC Fight Night: Alonzo Menifield vs. Zhang Mingyang (Light Heavyweigh SELL Alonzo Menifield 100¢ $31 25d
UFC Fight Night: Song Yadong vs. Deiveson Figueiredo (Bantamweight, Ma BUY Deiveson Figueiredo 19¢ $10 25d
UFC Fight Night: Sergei Pavlovich vs. Tallison Teixeira (Heavyweight, BUY Tallison Teixeira 17¢ $10 25d
UFC Fight Night: Alonzo Menifield vs. Zhang Mingyang (Light Heavyweigh BUY Alonzo Menifield 32¢ $10 25d
Will Arsenal FC win on 2026-05-30? BUY Yes 31¢ $95 26d
Will Republic of Ireland win on 2026-05-28? SELL Yes 100¢ $658 27d
Will Republic of Ireland win on 2026-05-28? BUY Yes 59¢ $6 28d
Will Republic of Ireland win on 2026-05-28? BUY Yes 59¢ $366 28d
Will Republic of Ireland win on 2026-05-28? BUY Yes 58¢ $21 28d
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? BUY Yes 37¢ $301 28d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $153.93 · official $153.93 (match) · 2574 history records