Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T11:09:58+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
13 0x13de…0542 other 136 markets active 2h ago coverage 130d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL −$19 (-0%) realized −$19 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -11% what you keep after slip
Net edge-11%after slip
Net WR3%break-even
Win rate13%17W / 118L
Whale WR0%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$196per market
Trades / day2.8pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit62%portable
Net worth$28now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$0
7 days−$0
14 days−$0
30 days−$1
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 51% −$13
politics 29% −$9
sports 11% +$3
crypto 3% −$1
economics 3% −$1
tech 3% $0
world 1% $0
culture 1% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +3%
net ROI/market (all)-10.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 2 -0.2% -9.7% 0% 0% -9.7%
≤30d 5 -0.2% -9.7% 0% 0% -9.6%
≤90d 96 -0.1% -9.6% 7% 0% -9.6%
all 135 -1.3% -10.7% 13% 3% -9.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.8 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -10.7% 3% -9.6%
10% -19.3% 3% -18.2%
15% -27.1% 3% -26.1%
20% -34.2% 2% -33.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 42% · top 2 64% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
76% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -1% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 0% (≥$500) big bets weaker
Persistence
early -3% → late -0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$5 vs −$1 · ×5.4 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.79 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

130d coverage
Net worth$28
Realized−$19
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)13%
Wins / losses17 / 118
Whale WR (big bets)0%
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions1
Markets (closed)135 / 136
History coverage130d
Avg bet$196
Trades / day2.8
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit62%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 135 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Chris Murphy win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? No 99¢ 99¢ $28 $28 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 5 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Cadillac be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? Jun 21 $24 $0 -0%
Will Phil Murphy win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 19 $25 $0 -0%
Will Roy Cooper win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 06 $19 $0 -0%
Will François Asselineau win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 01 $270 $0 -0%
Will Brian Kemp win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 26 $176 $0 -0%
Will George Clooney win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 20 $185 $0 -0%
Will Moonshot have the best AI model at the end of May 2026? May 15 $160 $0 -0%
Will United Kingdom win Eurovision 2026? May 15 $142 $0 +0%
Will Ron DeSantis win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 07 $539 −$1 -0%
Will Rand Paul win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 06 $169 $0 -0%
Will Franco Colapinto be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 06 $486 −$1 -0%
Will Latvia win Eurovision 2026? May 05 $182 $0 -0%
MegaETH market cap (FDV) >$6B one day after launch? May 05 $9 $0 +1%
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 05 $442 −$1 -0%
Will Xavier Bertrand win the 2027 French presidential election? May 04 $138 $0 -0%
Will Kyle Langford win the California Governor Election in 2026? May 04 $135 $0 -0%
Will Olivier Faure win the 2027 French presidential election? May 03 $155 $0 -0%
Will Albania win Eurovision 2026? May 03 $288 $0 -0%
Will South Africa win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 02 $479 −$1 -0%
Will 11 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? May 02 $177 $0 -0%
Will Robert F. Kennedy Jr. win the 2028 Republican presidential nomina May 02 $161 $0 -0%
Will Fernando Alonso be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 02 $653 −$1 -0%
Will Nikki Haley win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 01 $289 $0 -0%
Will Hillary Clinton win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 01 $309 $0 -0%
Will the Los Angeles Angels win the 2026 World Series? May 01 $158 $0 -0%
Will the Miami Dolphins win the 2027 NFL league championship? Apr 30 $140 $0 -0%
Will Serbia win Eurovision 2026? Apr 30 $311 $0 -0%
Will Norway win Eurovision 2026? Apr 29 $290 $0 -0%
Will Juan Branco win the 2027 French presidential election? Apr 29 $132 $0 -0%
Will Ecuador win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 27 $179 $0 -0%
Will Tom Brady win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Apr 27 $180 $0 -0%
Will Cory Booker win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 26 $171 $0 -0%
Will Hong Ihk-pyo win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election Apr 26 $139 $0 -0%
Will Azerbaijan win Eurovision 2026? Apr 26 $167 $0 -0%
Will Gina Raimondo win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 26 $170 $0 -0%
Will Oprah Winfrey win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 24 $315 $0 -0%
Will Ethereum reach $3,800 in April? Apr 22 $178 $0 -0%
Will Stephen Cloobeck win the California Governor Election in 2026? Apr 22 $130 $0 -0%
Will Switzerland win Eurovision 2026? Apr 21 $174 $0 -0%
Will Montenegro win Eurovision 2026? Apr 20 $168 $0 -0%
Will Pierre Gasly be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 19 $516 −$1 -0%
Will Tim Walz win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Apr 19 $299 $0 -0%
Will Carole Delga win the 2027 French presidential election? Apr 19 $149 $0 -0%
Will Ivanka Trump win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Apr 18 $177 $0 -0%
Will Ahn Cheol-soo win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election Apr 17 $149 $0 -0%
Will Jared Polis win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 17 $167 $0 -0%
Will Seo Young-kyo win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election Apr 17 $322 $0 -0%
Will Australia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 16 $284 $0 -0%
Will Kristi Noem win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Apr 16 $176 $0 -0%
Will Croatia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 16 $342 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Chris Murphy win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $28 1h
Will Cadillac be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $24 1h
Will Cadillac be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $24 38h
Will Phil Murphy win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $25 2d
Will Phil Murphy win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $25 14d
Will Roy Cooper win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $19 14d
Will Roy Cooper win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $19 19d
Will François Asselineau win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $142 19d
Will François Asselineau win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $142 24d
Will Brian Kemp win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $176 25d
Will Brian Kemp win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $176 29d
Will George Clooney win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $185 32d
Will George Clooney win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $185 34d
Will Moonshot have the best AI model at the end of May 2026? SELL No 100¢ $160 36d
Will Moonshot have the best AI model at the end of May 2026? BUY No 100¢ $160 36d
Will United Kingdom win Eurovision 2026? SELL No 100¢ $142 36d
Will United Kingdom win Eurovision 2026? BUY No 100¢ $142 39d
Will François Asselineau win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $128 44d
Will François Asselineau win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $128 45d
Will Ron DeSantis win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 98¢ $182 45d
Will Ron DeSantis win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 98¢ $182 45d
Will Rand Paul win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $169 45d
Will Rand Paul win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $169 45d
Will Franco Colapinto be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $145 45d
Will Franco Colapinto be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $145 46d
Will Latvia win Eurovision 2026? SELL No 100¢ $182 46d
Will Latvia win Eurovision 2026? BUY No 100¢ $182 46d
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 98¢ $126 47d
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 98¢ $126 47d
Will Xavier Bertrand win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $138 48d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $27.99 · official $27.99 (match) · 447 history records