Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T09:39:17+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
13 0x13de…fd91 weather 244 markets active 1h ago coverage 4d
BOTnot copyable weather specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover
✗ bot/MM pace (105 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$322 (-10%) realized −$219 · open −$103
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -8% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -29% what you keep after slip
Net edge-29%after slip
Net WR26%break-even
Win rate56%108W / 84L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$13per market
Trades / day104.9pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$793now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 4d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
weather 100% −$423
economics 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (105 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +26%
net ROI/market (all)-16.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 192 -8.1% -16.9% 56% 26% -25.0%
≤30d 192 -8.1% -16.9% 56% 26% -25.0%
≤90d 192 -8.1% -16.9% 56% 26% -25.0%
all 192 -8.1% -16.9% 56% 26% -25.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover104.9 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -16.9% 26% -25.0%
10% ← realistic here -24.8% 9% -32.2%
15% -32.1% 7% -38.8%
20% -38.7% 5% -44.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 28% · top 2 45% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -20% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
54% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -8% · $-wt -20% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +16% → late -32% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$3 vs −$8 · ×0.4 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.51 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

4d coverage
Net worth$793
Realized−$219
Unrealized−$103
Win rate (resolved)56%
Wins / losses108 / 84
Open positions52
Markets (closed)192 / 244
History coverage4d
Avg bet$13
Trades / day104.9
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 52 History 192 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 34°C on June 20? No 62¢ 62¢ $107 $106 −$1 (-1%)
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 33°C on June 20? No 80¢ 88¢ $86 $95 +$10 (+11%)
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 35°C on June 20? No 77¢ 60¢ $92 $72 −$20 (-22%)
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 33°C on June 20? No 72¢ 57¢ $84 $67 −$16 (-20%)
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 36°C on June 20? No 92¢ 90¢ $55 $54 −$1 (-2%)
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 26°C on June 20? No 61¢ 46¢ $50 $38 −$12 (-24%)
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 37°C on June 20? No 43¢ 68¢ $13 $21 +$8 (+57%)
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 36°C on June 20? No 67¢ 100¢ $10 $14 +$5 (+48%)
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 31°C on June 20? No 74¢ 100¢ $10 $13 +$4 (+35%)
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 25°C on June 20? No 73¢ 100¢ $9 $13 +$4 (+37%)
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 28°C on June 20? No 78¢ 100¢ $9 $12 +$3 (+28%)
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 16°C on June 20? No 82¢ 100¢ $10 $12 +$2 (+22%)
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 33°C on June 20? No 77¢ 100¢ $9 $12 +$3 (+30%)
Will the highest temperature in Busan be 26°C on June 20? No 83¢ 100¢ $10 $12 +$2 (+20%)
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 32°C on June 20? No 79¢ 100¢ $9 $12 +$2 (+26%)
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 18°C on June 20? No 83¢ 99¢ $10 $12 +$2 (+20%)
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 39°C on June 20? No 87¢ 100¢ $10 $11 +$1 (+15%)
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 25°C on June 20? No 76¢ 83¢ $10 $11 +$1 (+9%)
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 23°C on June 20? No 92¢ 100¢ $10 $11 +$1 (+9%)
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 30°C on June 20? No 71¢ 100¢ $8 $11 +$3 (+40%)
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 32°C on June 20? No 95¢ 100¢ $10 $10 +$1 (+5%)
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 35°C on June 20? No 64¢ 67¢ $10 $10 +$0 (+5%)
Will the highest temperature in London be 28°C on June 20? No 86¢ 89¢ $10 $10 +$0 (+3%)
Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 29°C on June 20? No 91¢ 100¢ $9 $10 +$1 (+10%)
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 31°C on June 20? No 90¢ 100¢ $9 $10 +$1 (+11%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 14 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 30°C on June 17? Jun 20 $6 −$6 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 27°C on June 17? Jun 20 $5 −$5 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 72-73°F on June 17? Jun 20 $19 −$19 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 88-89°F on June 17? Jun 20 $2 +$1 +75%
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 27°C on June 17? Jun 20 $7 −$6 -88%
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 94-95°F on June 19? Jun 20 $7 −$7 -100%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 74-75°F on Ju Jun 20 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 82-83°F on Ju Jun 20 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 34°C on June 17? Jun 20 $3 −$3 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 82-83°F on June 17? Jun 20 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 31°C on June 17? Jun 20 $10 −$4 -42%
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 76-77°F on June 17? Jun 20 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 27°C on June 17? Jun 20 $7 −$7 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 33°C on June 17? Jun 20 $4 −$4 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 66-67°F on June 17? Jun 20 $2 −$2 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 90-91°F on June 19? Jun 20 $81 −$33 -41%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 86-87°F on Ju Jun 20 $26 −$26 -100%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 88-89°F on Ju Jun 20 $10 −$10 -100%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 90-91°F on Ju Jun 20 $16 −$16 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 82-83°F on June 19? Jun 20 $52 −$52 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 90-91°F on June 19? Jun 20 $68 +$8 +12%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 30°C on June 20? Jun 20 $9 −$2 -22%
Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 30°C on June 20? Jun 20 $57 +$16 +28%
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 82-83°F on June 19? Jun 20 $66 +$59 +88%
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 78-79°F on June 19? Jun 19 $21 +$19 +92%
Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 88-89°F on June 19? Jun 19 $71 −$69 -97%
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 70-71°F on June Jun 19 $6 −$6 -95%
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 23°C on June 19? Jun 19 $1 +$1 +95%
Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 86-87°F on June 19? Jun 19 $19 +$25 +129%
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 84-85°F on June 19? Jun 19 $10 −$10 -95%
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 72-73°F on June Jun 19 $14 $0 -1%
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 86-87°F on June 19? Jun 19 $63 −$60 -96%
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 80-81°F on June 19? Jun 19 $66 −$65 -99%
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 88-89°F on June 19? Jun 19 $16 −$15 -95%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 30°C on June 19? Jun 19 $30 +$12 +39%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 28°C on June 19? Jun 19 $30 +$4 +14%
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 96-97°F on June 19? Jun 19 $2 −$2 -95%
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 92-93°F on June 19? Jun 19 $4 −$4 -95%
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 90-91°F on June 19? Jun 19 $23 −$22 -96%
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 32°C on June 18? Jun 19 $4 $0 +5%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 30°C on June 18? Jun 18 $5 $0 +9%
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 29°C on June 18? Jun 18 $4 +$2 +54%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 29°C on June 18? Jun 18 $5 +$2 +43%
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 36°C on June 18? Jun 18 $2 $0 +20%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 37°C on June 18? Jun 18 $4 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 78-79°F on June 17? Jun 18 $2 −$2 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 92-93°F on June 17? Jun 18 $2 −$2 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 33°C or higher on June 17 Jun 18 $5 −$5 -100%
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 64-65°F on Ju Jun 18 $2 −$2 -100%
Will the highest temperature in London be 22°C or below on June 17? Jun 18 $4 −$4 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 36°C on June 20? BUY No 92¢ $55 1h
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 33°C on June 20? SELL No 95¢ $28 1h
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 33°C on June 20? SELL No 95¢ $28 1h
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 33°C on June 20? SELL No 95¢ $8 1h
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 33°C on June 20? SELL No 95¢ $0 1h
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 33°C on June 20? SELL No 95¢ $11 1h
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 33°C on June 20? BUY No 85¢ $68 1h
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 34°C on June 20? BUY No 62¢ $70 2h
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 33°C on June 20? BUY No 82¢ $68 2h
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 33°C on June 20? BUY No 72¢ $69 2h
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 34°C on June 20? SELL No 68¢ $4 2h
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 34°C on June 20? SELL No 70¢ $12 2h
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 34°C on June 20? SELL No 68¢ $5 2h
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 34°C on June 20? SELL No 70¢ $4 2h
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 34°C on June 20? SELL No 71¢ $20 2h
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 34°C on June 20? SELL No 73¢ $1 2h
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 34°C on June 20? SELL No 73¢ $3 2h
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 34°C on June 20? SELL No 74¢ $6 2h
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 25°C on June 20? SELL No 97¢ $36 2h
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 35°C on June 20? BUY No 76¢ $68 2h
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 86-87°F on June 20? BUY Yes 1¢ $4 3h
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 36°C on June 20? SELL No 97¢ $16 3h
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 37°C on June 20? SELL No 99¢ $74 3h
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 36°C on June 20? SELL No 97¢ $16 3h
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 92-93°F on June 20? BUY Yes 6¢ $7 3h
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 92-93°F on June 20? BUY Yes 1¢ $4 3h
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 34°C on June 20? BUY No 94¢ $70 3h
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 37°C on June 20? BUY No 93¢ $70 4h
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 30°C on June 20? SELL No 70¢ $7 4h
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 29°C on June 20? SELL No 50¢ $8 4h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $793.35 · official $792.65 (match) · 559 history records