Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T02:55:42+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.5

score

13 0x13e0…a97e other 7 markets active 1h ago coverage 18d

RISKYcopy with care ⚠ Small sampleP/L from Polymarket (history capped)

✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ on-chain reconstruction ≠ official P&L (longshot/capped history)✗ profits on perfect fills only — loses on real

Total PnL +$2,649 (+35%) realized +$4,017 · open −$1,368

Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗

Gross ROI / mkt +16% what the leader earns

→−copy tax

Net edge / mkt +1% what you keep after slip

Net edge+1%after slip

Net WR67%break-even

Win rate67%2W / 1L

Drawdown54%max

Avg bet$1,079per market

Trades / day0.5pace

Fees−$54est.

Kalshi-fit43%portable

Net worth$1,045now

Equity curve

realized PnL

Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 18d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net

insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge

break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even

chance a trade nets +67%

net ROI/market (all)+5.4%

timeframe	markets	gross ROI	NET ROI	gross WR	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
≤7d	3	+16.5%	+5.4%	67%	67%	+12.1%
≤30d	3	+16.5%	+5.4%	67%	67%	+12.1%
≤90d	3	+16.5%	+5.4%	67%	67%	+12.1%
all	3	+16.5%	+5.4%	67%	67%	+12.1%

gross = as the leader traded. net = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip

turnover0.5 tr/day

realistic slip~7%

edge survives to5%

copier slippage	NET ROI	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here	+5.4%	67%	+12.1%
10%	-4.7%	67%	+1.3%
15%	-13.9%	67%	-8.4%
20%	-22.3%	67%	-17.4%

Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a trap: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill

Profit concentration

top 61% · top 2 100% thin sample

Edge freshness (90d)

90d ROI +24% too few recent

Fragile wins

0% wins margin < slip thin sample

Flat-copyable

equal-wt +16% · $-wt +24% works when copied flat

Big bets

big-bet WR —% no data

Persistence

early —% → late —% no data

Add-ons / DCA

1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries

Win / loss size

+$1,325 vs −$1,444 · ×0.92 wins small, loses big

Profit factor

×1.84 per $1 lost it wins $1.84

Copy size

≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

18d coverage

Net worth$1,045

Realized+$4,017

Unrealized−$1,368

Win rate (resolved)67%

Wins / losses2 / 1

Est. fees paid−$54

Open positions4

Markets (closed)3 / 7

History coverage18d

Avg bet$1,079

Trades / day0.5

Drawdown54%

Kalshi-fit43%

Ledger

positions · history · trades

Positions 4 History 3 Trades

Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket

Market	outcome	entry	now	invested	value	unrealized PnL
Will Uzbekistan vs. Colombia end in a draw?	Yes	20¢	8¢	$1,330	$565	−$765 (-57%)
Spread: Colombia (-1.5)	Uzbekistan	53¢	38¢	$314	$223	−$92 (-29%)
Will Uzbekistan win Group K in the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Yes	4¢	2¢	$300	$171	−$129 (-43%)
Will Uzbekistan win on 2026-06-17?	Yes	10¢	2¢	$469	$87	−$382 (-82%)

Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 1 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.

Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first

Market	when	invested	PnL	ROI
Will Panama win on 2026-06-17?	Jun 17	$1,474	−$1,444	-98%
Will England win on 2026-06-17?	Jun 17	$2,317	+$1,624	+70%
Will PSG win the 2025–26 Champions League?	Jun 17	$1,293	+$1,026	+79%

Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.

Latest trades by this wallet

Market	side	price	size	when
Spread: Colombia (-1.5)	BUY Uzbekistan	53¢	$319	1h
Will Uzbekistan win Group K in the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	BUY Yes	4¢	$103	1h
Will Uzbekistan win Group K in the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	BUY Yes	4¢	$103	1h
Will Uzbekistan win Group K in the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	BUY Yes	4¢	$103	1h
Will Uzbekistan vs. Colombia end in a draw?	BUY Yes	20¢	$1,362	1h
Will Uzbekistan win on 2026-06-17?	BUY Yes	10¢	$482	4h
Will Panama win on 2026-06-17?	BUY Yes	30¢	$1,474	4h
Will England win on 2026-06-17?	SELL Yes	100¢	$3,941	4h
Will England win on 2026-06-17?	BUY Yes	58¢	$2,317	13h
Will PSG win the 2025–26 Champions League?	BUY Yes	55¢	$1,293	18d

From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.

≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1,045.45 · official $1,131.95 · 11 history records