Wallet analysis

2026-06-29T17:31:53+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
13 0x13e1…0b66 crypto 66 markets active 1h ago coverage 82d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$307 (-7%) realized −$306 · open −$1
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -10% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -18% what you keep after slip
Net edge-18%after slip
Net WR15%break-even
Win rate37%22W / 38L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$67per market
Trades / day1.8pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit86%portable
Net worth$219now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$6
7 days−$8
14 days−$20
30 days−$27
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 37% −$39
crypto 36% −$195
other 18% −$22
finance 5% −$4
politics 5% −$3
sports 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +15%
net ROI/market (all)-18.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 5 -13.8% -22.0% 20% 20% -11.8%
≤30d 20 +8.9% -1.5% 25% 25% -11.2%
≤90d 60 -9.6% -18.2% 37% 15% -15.3%
all 60 -9.6% -18.2% 37% 15% -15.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.8 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -18.2% 15% -15.3%
10% -26.0% 10% -23.4%
15% -33.2% 8% -30.8%
20% -39.7% 7% -37.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 27% · top 2 37% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -6% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
59% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -10% · $-wt -6% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -25% → late +6% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.5 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$3 vs −$9 · ×0.33 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.19 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

82d coverage
Net worth$219
Realized−$306
Unrealized−$1
Win rate (resolved)37%
Wins / losses22 / 38
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions6
Markets (closed)60 / 66
History coverage82d
Avg bet$67
Trades / day1.8
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit86%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 6 History 60 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 77¢ 76¢ $77 $77 −$0 (-0%)
Will the US announce a blockade on Iran by December 31? No 69¢ 68¢ $69 $68 −$0 (-1%)
Will the US announce a blockade on Iran by December 31? Yes 32¢ 32¢ $32 $32 −$0 (-2%)
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 23¢ 24¢ $24 $24 +$0 (+0%)
Brazil vs. Japan: Team to Advance Brazil 72¢ 70¢ $10 $10 −$0 (-2%)
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-29? Yes 54¢ 50¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-8%)
Will Brazil vs. Japan end in a draw? Yes 28¢ 32¢ $2 $2 +$0 (+16%)
Brazil to score first vs. Japan? Yes 62¢ 64¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+2%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 8 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
US-Iran Final Nuclear Deal by August 31, 2026? Jun 29 $101 −$2 -2%
Will Lionel Messi be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 29 $102 −$4 -4%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $58,000 on June 25? Jun 25 $22 +$2 +11%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on June 25? Jun 25 $4 −$3 -73%
Will Mohamed bin Zayed Al Nahyan sign a U.S. x Iran deal by July 31? Jun 25 $101 −$2 -2%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 22? Jun 22 $5 +$4 +70%
Starmer out by August 31, 2026? Jun 22 $100 $0 -0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 21? Jun 21 $5 +$1 +22%
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by December 31, 20 Jun 21 $202 −$4 -2%
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? Jun 19 $102 −$4 -4%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? Jun 18 $101 −$3 -3%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 16? Jun 16 $2 −$2 -95%
Will Spencer Pratt win the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election? Jun 16 $101 −$3 -3%
Will a Claude Mythos model be released by July 31, 2026? Jun 09 $102 $0 -0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on June 2? Jun 02 $2 +$6 +264%
US x China tariff agreement by December 31? Jun 02 $102 −$8 -8%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? Jun 02 $101 −$2 -2%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $72,000 on June 1? Jun 01 $10 +$2 +16%
Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by December 31? Jun 01 $101 −$2 -2%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 7? Jun 01 $101 −$2 -2%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $78,000 on May 25? May 25 $11 $0 -3%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 30, 2026? May 25 $204 −$9 -4%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $76,000 on May 20? May 20 $100 +$2 +2%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by December 31, 2026? May 20 $202 −$4 -2%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $76,000 on May 19? May 19 $100 +$6 +6%
Will Trump agree to unfreeze Iranian assets by May 31? May 19 $101 −$4 -4%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $78,000 on May 18? May 18 $10 +$1 +8%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $76,000 on May 18? May 18 $12 −$1 -11%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $80,000 on May 15? May 15 $20 +$1 +5%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May? May 15 $101 −$2 -2%
Will Trump visit China by May 31? May 12 $100 $0 -0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $80,000 on May 12? May 12 $1 −$1 -94%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? May 12 $101 −$2 -2%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra May 12 $101 −$2 -2%
Netanyahu out by June 30? May 08 $101 −$2 -2%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $80,000 on May 8? May 08 $10 −$10 -98%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $76,000 on May 6? May 06 $100 +$1 +1%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $82,000 on May 5? May 05 $1 −$1 -94%
Iran closes its airspace by May 31? May 05 $102 −$4 -4%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $80,000 on May 4? May 04 $51 +$17 +33%
Miguel Díaz-Canel out as leader of Cuba by December 31? May 04 $101 −$3 -3%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $78,000 on May 3? May 03 $100 +$1 +1%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $80,000 on May 3? May 03 $1 −$1 -93%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $78,000 on May 2? May 02 $50 +$1 +3%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $74,000 on April 28? Apr 27 $1 −$1 -93%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $76,000 on April 28? Apr 27 $6 −$6 -95%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $78,000 on April 24? Apr 24 $306 −$202 -66%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $76,000 on April 23? Apr 23 $100 +$2 +2%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $78,000 on April 23? Apr 23 $2 +$4 +207%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $78,000 on April 22? Apr 22 $5 +$2 +39%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the US announce a blockade on Iran by December 31? BUY No 69¢ $69 58m
Will the US announce a blockade on Iran by December 31? BUY Yes 32¢ $32 58m
Brazil to score first vs. Japan? BUY Yes 62¢ $1 59m
Will Brazil vs. Japan end in a draw? BUY Yes 28¢ $2 1h
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-29? BUY Yes 54¢ $5 1h
Brazil vs. Japan: Team to Advance BUY Brazil 72¢ $10 1h
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 77¢ $78 1h
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 23¢ $25 1h
US-Iran Final Nuclear Deal by August 31, 2026? SELL Yes 23¢ $23 1h
US-Iran Final Nuclear Deal by August 31, 2026? SELL No 76¢ $76 1h
Will Lionel Messi be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 46¢ $46 1h
Will Lionel Messi be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 53¢ $53 1h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on June 25? SELL Yes 13¢ $1 4d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $58,000 on June 25? BUY Yes 89¢ $22 4d
Will Lionel Messi be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 64¢ $66 4d
Will Lionel Messi be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 36¢ $37 4d
US-Iran Final Nuclear Deal by August 31, 2026? BUY No 77¢ $77 4d
US-Iran Final Nuclear Deal by August 31, 2026? BUY Yes 24¢ $24 4d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on June 25? BUY Yes 43¢ $4 4d
Will Mohamed bin Zayed Al Nahyan sign a U.S. x Iran deal by July 31? SELL No 95¢ $95 4d
Will Mohamed bin Zayed Al Nahyan sign a U.S. x Iran deal by July 31? SELL Yes 4¢ $4 4d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 22? BUY Yes 57¢ $5 8d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 21? BUY Yes 81¢ $5 8d
Will Mohamed bin Zayed Al Nahyan sign a U.S. x Iran deal by July 31? BUY No 89¢ $89 8d
Will Mohamed bin Zayed Al Nahyan sign a U.S. x Iran deal by July 31? BUY Yes 12¢ $12 8d
Starmer out by August 31, 2026? BUY No 3¢ $3 8d
Starmer out by August 31, 2026? BUY Yes 97¢ $97 8d
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by December 31, 20 SELL Yes 21¢ $21 8d
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by December 31, 20 SELL No 78¢ $78 8d
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? BUY No 56¢ $56 11d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $218.62 · official $218.94 (match) · 182 history records