Wallet analysis

2026-06-14T16:29:38+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

13
0x13e1…f309
crypto · 106 markets active 1h ago
0.0score
−$78 -5%
TOTAL PnL · realized −$293 · open +$68
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP crypto specialistFading edge
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$297
Realized−$293
Unrealized+$68
Win rate (resolved)15%
Wins / losses15 / 86
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions5
Markets (closed)101 / 106
History coverage65d
Avg bet$16
Trades / day2.8
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit95%
Chart Positions 5 History 101 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$152
7 days−$199
14 days−$199
30 days−$199
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will SpaceX's market cap be between $1.5T and $2.0T at market close on last trading day of IPO month? Yes 30¢ 40¢ $170 $224 +$54 (+32%)
Will SpaceX's valuation hit (HIGH) $2.5T by June 30? No 51¢ 69¢ $40 $54 +$14 (+35%)
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? Yes 26¢ 26¢ $15 $15 −$0 (-2%)
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-14? Yes 2¢ 2¢ $2 $2 +$0 (+2%)
Will Germany vs. Curaçao end in a draw? Yes 4¢ 4¢ $2 $2 +$0 (+1%)
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 22°C on April 14? Yes 34¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 13, 1:00PM-1:15PM ET Up 22¢ 0¢ $85 $0 −$85 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 13, 4:55PM-5:00PM ET Down 13¢ 0¢ $6 $0 −$6 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 13, 3:55PM-4:00PM ET Up 8¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 10, 12:45PM-1:00PM ET Down 1¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 10, 1:10PM-1:15PM ET Up 19¢ 0¢ $7 $0 −$7 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 10, 11:50AM-11:55AM ET Up 35¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:00PM-8:05PM ET Up 9¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 13, 3:00PM-3:05PM ET Up 12¢ 0¢ $3 $0 −$3 (-100%)
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 11:00AM-11:15AM ET Down 2¢ 0¢ $9 $0 −$9 (-100%)
Will South Africa win on 2026-06-11? Yes 10¢ 0¢ $23 $0 −$23 (-100%)
Will Mexico vs. South Africa end in a draw? Yes 12¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 14, 7:25AM-7:30AM ET Up 4¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Solana Up or Down - June 12, 8:20PM-8:25PM ET Down 1¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 10, 1:15PM-1:30PM ET Down 4¢ 0¢ $6 $0 −$6 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 10, 1:00PM-1:05PM ET Up 11¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
XRP Up or Down - June 13, 9:15AM-9:20AM ET Up 3¢ 0¢ $4 $0 −$4 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 4:50PM-4:55PM ET Down 4¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 11:00AM-11:05AM ET Down 5¢ 0¢ $13 $0 −$13 (-100%)
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 11:30AM-11:35AM ET Up 12¢ 0¢ $30 $0 −$30 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 11:30AM-11:35AM ET Jun 14 $32 −$30 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:15AM-11:30AM ET Jun 14 $42 +$7 +16%
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:15AM-11:30AM ET Jun 14 $32 −$30 -95%
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:15AM-11:20AM ET Jun 14 $10 −$9 -94%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 11:00AM-11:15AM ET Jun 14 $10 −$9 -94%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 11:00AM-11:05AM ET Jun 14 $13 −$13 -94%
Solana Up or Down - June 14, 10:45AM-11:00AM ET Jun 14 $57 −$54 -94%
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? Jun 14 $197 −$127 -64%
XRP Up or Down - June 13, 2:15PM-2:20PM ET Jun 13 $4 −$4 -94%
XRP Up or Down - June 13, 1:30PM-1:45PM ET Jun 13 $11 −$10 -94%
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 13, 1:30PM-1:45PM ET Jun 13 $53 −$50 -95%
Solana Up or Down - June 13, 1:35PM-1:40PM ET Jun 13 $3 −$3 -100%
XRP Up or Down - June 13, 1:30PM-1:35PM ET Jun 13 $53 −$36 -68%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 1:15PM-1:30PM ET Jun 13 $100 −$100 -100%
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 13, 1:00PM-1:15PM ET Jun 13 $90 −$85 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 1:00PM-1:05PM ET Jun 13 $11 −$10 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 12:45PM-1:00PM ET Jun 13 $53 −$53 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 12:45PM-12:50PM ET Jun 13 $53 +$454 +853%
XRP Up or Down - June 13, 12:30PM-12:45PM ET Jun 13 $53 +$17 +31%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 12:25PM-12:30PM ET Jun 13 $21 −$21 -100%
XRP Up or Down - June 13, 12:15PM-12:30PM ET Jun 13 $26 −$24 -94%
XRP Up or Down - June 13, 9:15AM-9:30AM ET Jun 13 $11 −$11 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 9:15AM-9:30AM ET Jun 13 $21 +$50 +236%
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 13, 9:15AM-9:20AM ET Jun 13 $2 −$2 -94%
XRP Up or Down - June 13, 9:15AM-9:20AM ET Jun 13 $4 −$4 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 9:05AM-9:10AM ET Jun 13 $1 −$1 -94%
Solana Up or Down - June 12, 9:00PM-9:05PM ET Jun 13 $16 −$16 -100%
Solana Up or Down - June 12, 8:55PM-9:00PM ET Jun 13 $5 −$5 -100%
Solana Up or Down - June 12, 8:45PM-8:50PM ET Jun 13 $3 −$3 -95%
Solana Up or Down - June 12, 8:15PM-8:30PM ET Jun 13 $11 +$46 +434%
Solana Up or Down - June 12, 8:20PM-8:25PM ET Jun 13 $2 −$2 -94%
Solana Up or Down - June 12, 8:05PM-8:10PM ET Jun 13 $7 −$7 -94%
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:00PM-8:05PM ET Jun 13 $5 −$5 -94%
XRP Up or Down - June 12, 7:55PM-8:00PM ET Jun 12 $5 −$4 -82%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 7:45PM-8:00PM ET Jun 12 $11 −$8 -76%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:35PM-5:40PM ET Jun 12 $3 −$3 -94%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13? Jun 12 $5 −$5 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:05PM-4:10PM ET Jun 12 $4 +$25 +617%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 5:10PM-5:15PM ET Jun 12 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 5:05PM-5:10PM ET Jun 11 $16 −$15 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 4:50PM-4:55PM ET Jun 11 $5 −$5 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 4:45PM-4:50PM ET Jun 11 $10 +$11 +103%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 4:40PM-4:45PM ET Jun 11 $11 −$5 -47%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 4:30PM-4:35PM ET Jun 11 $5 −$5 -95%
Will Mexico vs. South Africa end in a draw? Jun 11 $5 −$5 -97%
Will South Africa win on 2026-06-11? Jun 11 $24 −$23 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 14, 7:25AM-7:30AM ET Apr 14 $2 −$1 -41%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 14, 7:20AM-7:25AM ET Apr 14 $10 −$9 -94%
Will the highest temperature in London be 16°C on April 15? Apr 14 $5 −$5 -97%
Will the highest temperature in London be 15°C on April 14? Apr 14 $1 −$1 -96%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
crypto 71% −$117
other 14% −$155
tech 13% +$68
weather 1% −$16
sports 0% −$5
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 26¢ $15 52m
Will Germany vs. Curaçao end in a draw? BUY Yes 4¢ $2 53m
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 2¢ $2 53m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 11:30AM-11:35AM ET BUY Up 12¢ $32 56m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:15AM-11:30AM ET BUY Up 5¢ $11 1h
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:15AM-11:30AM ET BUY Up 22¢ $32 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:15AM-11:30AM ET SELL Up 50¢ $45 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:15AM-11:30AM ET BUY Up 16¢ $32 1h
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:15AM-11:20AM ET BUY Up 6¢ $10 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 11:00AM-11:15AM ET BUY Down 2¢ $10 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 11:00AM-11:05AM ET BUY Down 4¢ $9 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 11:00AM-11:05AM ET BUY Down 8¢ $4 1h
Solana Up or Down - June 14, 10:45AM-11:00AM ET BUY Down 8¢ $4 1h
Solana Up or Down - June 14, 10:45AM-11:00AM ET BUY Down 18¢ $53 1h
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? SELL Yes 10¢ $71 1h
XRP Up or Down - June 13, 2:15PM-2:20PM ET BUY Down 9¢ $4 22h
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? BUY Yes 25¢ $197 22h
XRP Up or Down - June 13, 1:30PM-1:45PM ET BUY Up 7¢ $11 22h
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 13, 1:30PM-1:45PM ET BUY Down 22¢ $53 22h
Solana Up or Down - June 13, 1:35PM-1:40PM ET BUY Up 19¢ $2 22h
Solana Up or Down - June 13, 1:35PM-1:40PM ET BUY Up 19¢ $0 22h
XRP Up or Down - June 13, 1:30PM-1:35PM ET SELL Up 5¢ $17 22h
XRP Up or Down - June 13, 1:30PM-1:35PM ET BUY Up 14¢ $53 22h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 1:15PM-1:30PM ET BUY Down 11¢ $11 23h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 1:15PM-1:30PM ET BUY Down 19¢ $11 23h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 1:15PM-1:30PM ET BUY Down 23¢ $79 23h
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 13, 1:00PM-1:15PM ET BUY Up 10¢ $11 23h
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 13, 1:00PM-1:15PM ET BUY Up 26¢ $79 23h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 1:00PM-1:05PM ET BUY Up 7¢ $11 23h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 12:45PM-1:00PM ET BUY Up 7¢ $53 23h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +15%
net ROI/market (all)-20.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 46 -32.4% -38.8% 15% 15% -26.3%
≤30d 46 -32.4% -38.8% 15% 15% -26.3%
≤90d 101 -12.5% -20.9% 15% 15% -28.4%
all 101 -12.5% -20.9% 15% 15% -28.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover2.8 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -20.9% 15% -28.4%
10% -28.4% 15% -35.3%
15% -35.3% 13% -41.5%
20% -41.7% 13% -47.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $296.67 · official $296.58 (match) · 202 history records