Wallet analysis

2026-06-24T05:36:33+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.0
score
13 0x13e2…e198 other 45 markets active 2h ago coverage 185d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$51 (+10%) realized +$52 · open −$1
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -10% what you keep after slip
Net edge-10%after slip
Net WR50%break-even
Win rate52%23W / 21L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$11per market
Trades / day0.4pace
Fees−$2est.
Kalshi-fit42%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$34
7 days+$12
14 days+$75
30 days+$60
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 70% +$39
sports 28% +$12
politics 2% −$2
tech 0% +$3
economics 0% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +50%
net ROI/market (all)-9.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 20 -14.2% -22.4% 50% 50% -6.0%
≤30d 39 +12.4% +1.7% 59% 56% +1.9%
≤90d 39 +12.4% +1.7% 59% 56% +1.9%
all 44 -0.4% -9.9% 52% 50% +0.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.4 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.9% 50% +0.8%
10% -18.5% 50% -8.8%
15% -26.4% 50% -17.6%
20% -33.6% 41% -25.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 11% · top 2 20% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +13% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
4% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -0% · $-wt +11% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +5% → late -5% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$10 vs −$8 · ×1.19 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×1.3 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

185d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$52
Unrealized−$1
Win rate (resolved)52%
Wins / losses23 / 21
Est. fees paid−$2
Open positions1
Markets (closed)44 / 45
History coverage185d
Avg bet$11
Trades / day0.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit42%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 44 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Another Canada election called by June 30? Yes 15¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-98%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 20 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-23? Jun 24 $20 +$9 +47%
Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-23? Jun 23 $5 −$5 -98%
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-22? Jun 23 $20 +$11 +55%
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? Jun 23 $10 +$14 +134%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? Jun 22 $55 +$25 +46%
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-23? Jun 22 $5 −$5 -97%
Will Uzbekistan win on 2026-06-23? Jun 22 $5 −$5 -97%
Will Jordan win on 2026-06-22? Jun 22 $5 −$5 -98%
Will Iraq win on 2026-06-22? Jun 22 $5 −$5 -97%
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-21? Jun 22 $20 +$12 +60%
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-21? Jun 22 $20 −$20 -100%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $30 −$30 -99%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $15 +$7 +48%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? Jun 19 $15 +$7 +46%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $15 +$9 +57%
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $15 −$15 -99%
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? Jun 18 $10 +$14 +135%
Will Uzbekistan win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $5 −$5 -97%
Will England win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $10 +$9 +90%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $10 −$10 -98%
Kansas City Royals vs. Washington Nationals Jun 17 $15 +$9 +61%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $20 +$21 +104%
Spread: Spain (-1.5) Jun 15 $10 −$10 -98%
Spread: Spain (-2.5) Jun 15 $10 −$10 -98%
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 14 $10 +$17 +165%
Will Haiti win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $26 −$5 -20%
New York Yankees vs. Toronto Blue Jays Jun 13 $15 +$14 +89%
Spread: Switzerland (-1.5) Jun 13 $15 −$15 -99%
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $10 +$12 +115%
Spread: Milwaukee Brewers (-1.5) Jun 13 $10 +$7 +71%
Elon Musk trillionaire before 2027? Jun 11 $2 +$1 +58%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $1.6T? Jun 11 $1 +$3 +312%
Will Karen Bass win the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election? Jun 11 $6 $0 +4%
St. Louis Cardinals vs. New York Mets: O/U 8.5 Jun 11 $10 +$10 +97%
Washington Nationals vs. San Francisco Giants: O/U 8.5 Jun 10 $5 +$6 +119%
Seattle Mariners vs. Baltimore Orioles Jun 10 $7 −$7 -99%
New York Yankees vs. Cleveland Guardians: O/U 7.5 Jun 10 $7 +$6 +90%
Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Miami Marlins: O/U 7.5 Jun 10 $5 +$4 +83%
Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Miami Marlins Jun 09 $15 −$15 -98%
Will Elon Musk post 100-119 tweets from December 19 to December 26, 20 Dec 21 $1 −$1 -100%
Fed decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after January 2026 meeting? Dec 21 $1 −$1 -100%
Will MrBeast's next video get less than 25 million views on day 1? Dec 20 $1 −$1 -100%
Andrew Tate vs. Chase Demoor Dec 20 $4 −$4 -96%
Will Trump release the Epstein files by December 19? Dec 20 $1 −$1 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-23? SELL Yes 95¢ $30 1h
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 64¢ $20 8h
Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 14¢ $5 8h
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 7¢ $5 31h
Will Uzbekistan win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 5¢ $5 31h
Will Jordan win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 16¢ $5 31h
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 64¢ $20 31h
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 42¢ $10 31h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 68¢ $24 37h
Will Iraq win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 3¢ $5 37h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 68¢ $30 37h
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 62¢ $20 2d
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 69¢ $20 2d
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 64¢ $15 2d
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 64¢ $15 2d
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 67¢ $15 3d
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? SELL Yes 72¢ $22 5d
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 48¢ $15 6d
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 63¢ $15 6d
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 53¢ $15 6d
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? SELL Yes 98¢ $24 6d
Will Uzbekistan win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 10¢ $5 6d
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 41¢ $10 6d
Will England win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 52¢ $10 6d
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 42¢ $10 6d
Kansas City Royals vs. Washington Nationals SELL Washington Nationals 93¢ $24 7d
Kansas City Royals vs. Washington Nationals BUY Washington Nationals 57¢ $15 7d
Will France win on 2026-06-16? SELL Yes 100¢ $41 7d
Will France win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 48¢ $10 7d
Will France win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 48¢ $10 7d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.02 · official $0.02 (match) · 78 history records