Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T09:42:34+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.0
score
13 0x13e4…8b89 other 275 markets active 9h ago coverage 31d
BOTnot copyable ⚠ High turnover
✗ bot/MM pace (77 trades/day) — uncopyable
Total PnL +$6,277 (+14%) realized +$6,277 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +26% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -3% what you keep after slip
Net edge-3%after slip
Net WR46%break-even
Win rate72%197W / 78L
Whale WR73%big bets
Drawdown7%max
Avg bet$165per market
Trades / day77.3pace
Fees−$294est.
Kalshi-fit32%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$229
7 days+$1,081
14 days+$1,110
30 days+$5,467
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 74% +$3,006
sports 25% +$2,587
crypto 1% +$125
world 1% −$250
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (77 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +46%
net ROI/market (all)+13.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 65 +10.0% -0.5% 63% 45% -0.6%
≤30d 274 +25.6% +13.7% 72% 46% +2.3%
≤90d 275 +25.5% +13.6% 72% 46% +2.3%
all 275 +25.5% +13.6% 72% 46% +2.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover77.3 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to10%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal +13.6% 46% +2.3%
10% ← realistic here +2.7% 29% -7.5%
15% -7.2% 19% -16.4%
20% -16.3% 13% -24.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 16% · top 2 22% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +13% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
35% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +26% · $-wt +13% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 73% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +39% → late +12% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
4.1 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$40 vs −$32 · ×1.26 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×3.19 per $1 lost it wins $3.19
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

31d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$6,277
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)72%
Wins / losses197 / 78
Whale WR (big bets)73%
Est. fees paid−$294
Open positions0
Markets (closed)275 / 275
History coverage31d
Avg bet$165
Trades / day77.3
Drawdown7%
Kalshi-fit32%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 275 Trades
no open positions (23 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $1,515 −$39 -3%
Will América FC win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $17 −$1 -4%
Spread: Norway (-1.5) Jun 16 $665 −$42 -6%
Will Fortaleza EC win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $17 −$12 -70%
Spread: France (-1.5) Jun 16 $848 +$368 +43%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $714 −$46 -6%
UFC Freedom 250: Aiemann Zahabi vs. Sean O'Malley (Bantamweight, Main Jun 15 $10 $0 +4%
Spread: Sweden (-2.5) Jun 15 $73 −$2 -2%
UFC Freedom 250: Derrick Lewis vs. Josh Hokit (Heavyweight, Main Card) Jun 15 $50 +$11 +21%
UFC Freedom 250: Michael Chandler vs. Mauricio Ruffy (Lightweight, Mai Jun 15 $70 +$4 +6%
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $418 $0 -0%
Will CD Universidad Católica win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $420 +$94 +22%
Will Operário Ferroviário EC win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $95 +$34 +36%
Will Botafogo FC win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $706 −$145 -20%
Will Clube Náutico Capibaribe win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $251 +$50 +20%
Will Grêmio Novorizontino win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $10 +$4 +44%
Netherlands vs. Japan: O/U 4.5 Jun 14 $200 +$20 +10%
Netherlands vs. Japan: O/U 3.5 Jun 14 $61 +$14 +23%
Netherlands vs. Japan: O/U 1.5 Jun 14 $105 +$13 +12%
Will Goiás EC win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $12 +$1 +12%
Will CF Universidad de Chile win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $616 −$92 -15%
Will Athletic Club win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $3 −$1 -45%
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 8.5 Jun 14 $241 +$150 +62%
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 6.5 Jun 14 $253 +$1 +0%
Spread: Germany (-2.5) Jun 14 $501 +$50 +10%
Will CD Concepción win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $261 +$141 +54%
Will IR Tanger win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $267 +$149 +56%
Will US Yacoub El Mansour win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $0 $0 -100%
Will EC Juventude win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $2 $0 -3%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $250 $0 +0%
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 14 $546 +$4 +1%
CD Ñublense vs. CD Huachipato: O/U 3.5 Jun 14 $12 −$3 -22%
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $287 +$3 +1%
Will CD Ñublense win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $219 +$12 +5%
CSD Colo-Colo vs. CD Cobresal: O/U 3.5 Jun 13 $33 −$6 -19%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $401 +$10 +3%
Qatar vs. Switzerland: O/U 2.5 Jun 13 $701 −$149 -21%
Qatar vs. Switzerland: 1st Half O/U 0.5 Jun 13 $234 +$19 +8%
Will Vaasan Palloseura win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $48 +$40 +84%
Will HJK Helsinki win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $4 +$1 +16%
Tampereen Ilves vs. Turun Palloseura: O/U 0.5 Jun 13 $1 $0 +19%
Will FF Jaro win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $1 +$2 +208%
FC Inter Turku vs. AC Oulu: O/U 0.5 Jun 13 $6 +$17 +267%
Exact Score: Any Other Score? Jun 13 $296 +$71 +24%
United States vs. Paraguay: 1st Half O/U 2.5 Jun 13 $196 +$43 +22%
United States vs. Paraguay: 1st Half O/U 1.5 Jun 13 $100 +$83 +83%
Will Audax CS Italiano win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $22 +$6 +26%
Will CR Brasil win on 2026-06-12? Jun 12 $295 +$48 +16%
Saint Patrick´s Athletic FC vs. Drogheda United FC: O/U 1.5 Jun 12 $1 −$1 -89%
COD Meknès vs. RCA Zemamra: O/U 0.5 Jun 12 $1 −$1 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? SELL No 36¢ $183 8h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? SELL No 44¢ $6 8h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? SELL No 44¢ $261 8h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? SELL No 44¢ $4 8h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? SELL No 44¢ $166 8h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? BUY No 50¢ $254 8h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? BUY No 50¢ $39 8h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? BUY No 50¢ $10 8h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? BUY No 50¢ $10 8h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? BUY No 50¢ $186 8h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? BUY No 48¢ $250 8h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? BUY No 50¢ $5 8h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? SELL No 36¢ $529 8h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? BUY No 34¢ $250 8h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? BUY No 34¢ $255 8h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? SELL No 36¢ $327 8h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? BUY No 27¢ $256 8h
Will América FC win on 2026-06-16? SELL Yes 67¢ $4 9h
Will América FC win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 52¢ $3 9h
Spread: Norway (-1.5) SELL Norway 84¢ $32 10h
Spread: Norway (-1.5) BUY Norway 72¢ $3 10h
Spread: Norway (-1.5) BUY Norway 70¢ $8 10h
Spread: Norway (-1.5) BUY Norway 72¢ $9 10h
Spread: Norway (-1.5) BUY Norway 72¢ $8 10h
Will América FC win on 2026-06-16? SELL No 55¢ $11 10h
Will América FC win on 2026-06-16? SELL Yes 29¢ $3 10h
Will América FC win on 2026-06-16? BUY No 54¢ $12 10h
Will América FC win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 22¢ $2 10h
Will Fortaleza EC win on 2026-06-16? SELL Yes 46¢ $5 10h
Will Fortaleza EC win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 63¢ $17 10h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 2470 history records