Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T11:01:17+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.5

score

13 0x13e6…18ab other 8 markets active 1h ago coverage 1d

RISKYcopy with care ⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample

✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ only 1d of captured history — unreliable! high turnover

Total PnL +$1,334 (+94%) realized +$1,345 · open −$11

Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗

Gross ROI / mkt +216% what the leader earns

→−copy tax

Net edge / mkt +153% what you keep after slip

Net edge+153%after slip

Net WR100%break-even

Win rate100%1W / 0L

Drawdown0%max

Avg bet$177per market

Trades / day10.0pace

Fees−$3est.

Kalshi-fit25%portable

Net worth$777now

Equity curve

realized PnL

Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 1d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net

insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge

break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even

chance a trade nets +100%

net ROI/market (all)+185.6%

timeframe	markets	gross ROI	NET ROI	gross WR	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
≤7d	1	+215.7%	+185.6%	100%	100%	+185.6%
≤30d	1	+215.7%	+185.6%	100%	100%	+185.6%
≤90d	1	+215.7%	+185.6%	100%	100%	+185.6%
all	1	+215.7%	+185.6%	100%	100%	+185.6%

gross = as the leader traded. net = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip

turnover10.0 tr/day

realistic slip~11%

edge survives to20%

copier slippage	NET ROI	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
5% ideal	+185.6%	100%	+185.6%
10% ← realistic here	+158.3%	100%	+158.3%
15%	+133.3%	100%	+133.3%
20%	+110.4%	100%	+110.4%

Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a trap: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill

Profit concentration

top 100% · top 2 100% thin sample

Edge freshness (90d)

90d ROI +216% too few recent

Fragile wins

0% wins margin < slip thin sample

Flat-copyable

equal-wt +216% · $-wt +216% works when copied flat

Big bets

big-bet WR —% no data

Persistence

early —% → late —% no data

Add-ons / DCA

1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries

Win / loss size

+$1,324 vs — no data

Profit factor

— no data

Copy size

≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

1d coverage

Net worth$777

Realized+$1,345

Unrealized−$11

Win rate (resolved)100%

Wins / losses1 / 0

Est. fees paid−$3

Open positions7

Markets (closed)1 / 8

History coverage1d

Avg bet$177

Trades / day10.0

Drawdown0%

Kalshi-fit25%

Ledger

positions · history · trades

Positions 7 History 1 Trades

Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket

Market	outcome	entry	now	invested	value	unrealized PnL
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22?	Yes	43¢	42¢	$200	$198	−$2 (-1%)
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-22?	Yes	62¢	62¢	$138	$137	−$1 (-1%)
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: O/U 2.5	Over	72¢	72¢	$100	$101	+$1 (+1%)
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21?	Yes	68¢	68¢	$100	$99	−$1 (-1%)
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22?	Yes	64¢	64¢	$100	$99	−$1 (-1%)
Will Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw?	Yes	23¢	22¢	$100	$98	−$2 (-2%)
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-21?	Yes	17¢	16¢	$50	$46	−$4 (-9%)

Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).

Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first

Market	when	invested	PnL	ROI
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20?	Jun 21	$614	+$1,324	+216%

Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.

Latest trades by this wallet

Market	side	price	size	when
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-22?	BUY Yes	62¢	$140	1h
Will Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw?	BUY Yes	23¢	$102	1h
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: O/U 2.5	BUY Over	72¢	$101	1h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22?	BUY Yes	64¢	$101	1h
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-21?	BUY Yes	17¢	$51	1h
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21?	BUY Yes	68¢	$101	1h
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22?	BUY Yes	43¢	$203	1h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20?	BUY Yes	18¢	$202	13h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20?	BUY Yes	36¢	$192	14h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20?	BUY Yes	68¢	$220	16h

From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.

✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $777.43 · official $777.43 (match) · 11 history records