Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T12:36:52+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
13 0x13e7…afc0 other 67 markets active 1h ago coverage 154d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL +$121 (+1%) realized +$110 · open +$11
Gross ROI / mkt +0% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -9% what you keep after slip
Net edge-9%after slip
Net WR12%break-even
Win rate60%39W / 26L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$123per market
Trades / day1.1pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit66%portable
Net worth$235now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$137
7 days−$21
14 days−$92
30 days−$78
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 34% +$109
finance 16% +$130
economics 14% +$18
world 10% −$80
crypto 9% −$104
tech 8% +$30
sports 5% +$4
politics 3% −$2
culture 2% +$3
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +12%
net ROI/market (all)-9.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 9 +11.2% +0.6% 56% 44% -12.1%
≤30d 17 +4.8% -5.1% 59% 24% -13.2%
≤90d 31 +0.6% -9.0% 65% 16% -9.8%
all 65 +0.3% -9.2% 60% 12% -8.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.1 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.2% 12% -8.4%
10% -17.9% 11% -17.2%
15% -25.8% 8% -25.2%
20% -33.1% 5% -32.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 25% · top 2 43% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
79% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +0% · $-wt +1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -0% → late +1% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.9 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$19 vs −$25 · ×0.77 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.15 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

154d coverage
Net worth$235
Realized+$110
Unrealized+$11
Win rate (resolved)60%
Wins / losses39 / 26
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions2
Markets (closed)65 / 67
History coverage154d
Avg bet$123
Trades / day1.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit66%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 65 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? Yes 88¢ 96¢ $130 $142 +$11 (+9%)
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: Spain O/U 0.5 Over 96¢ 95¢ $93 $93 −$1 (-1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 3 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? Jun 21 $61 +$137 +225%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $42 +$16 +39%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $28 +$13 +47%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $47 −$46 -98%
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $76 +$67 +89%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $110 −$109 -99%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by July 31? Jun 15 $55 +$1 +2%
Exact Score: Any Other Score? Jun 14 $200 $0 -0%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $101 −$99 -98%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $1T? Jun 14 $101 $0 +0%
Will a Claude Mythos model be released by July 31, 2026? Jun 10 $112 +$1 +1%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $56,000 on June 9? Jun 10 $128 $0 -0%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 08 $345 −$74 -22%
Will Microstrategy announce a Bitcoin purchase June 2-8? Jun 08 $168 +$4 +2%
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the June 2026 meet Jun 08 $153 +$2 +1%
Will Harvey Weinstein be sentenced to no prison time? Jun 08 $39 −$4 -10%
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on May 3 Jun 01 $170 +$14 +8%
Will US crude oil reserves fall to 375M by June 5? May 21 $36 +$1 +2%
Will Putin visit China by May 31? May 18 $47 $0 -1%
Will Kevin Warsh be confirmed as Fed Chair? May 15 $150 +$1 +1%
Will Barcelona win the 2025–26 La Liga? May 11 $155 +$6 +4%
Will the next Prime Minister of Hungary be Péter Magyar? May 10 $101 $0 +0%
Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of April 2026? Apr 30 $50 +$3 +5%
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the April 2026 mee Apr 30 $392 +$5 +1%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $110 by end of March? Apr 14 $89 −$89 -100%
Will Shai Gilgeous-Alexander win the 2025–2026 NBA MVP? Apr 14 $133 −$1 -0%
Will "The Super Mario Galaxy Movie" Opening Weekend Box Office be betw Apr 07 $132 +$3 +2%
EdgeX FDV above $300M one day after launch? Apr 02 $491 −$1 -0%
Based FDV above $75M one day after launch? Apr 01 $210 +$1 +0%
Based FDV above $50M one day after launch? Apr 01 $110 $0 +0%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $100 by end of March? Mar 31 $627 +$136 +22%
Will MicroStrategy announce holding 800k+ BTC by December 31, 2026? Mar 20 $46 −$1 -3%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $90 by end of March? Mar 13 $68 +$4 +6%
Will Iran close the Strait of Hormuz by March 31? Mar 12 $29 $0 -0%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $95 by end of March? Mar 12 $61 $0 -0%
Will Gold have the best performance in 2026? Mar 12 $103 −$4 -4%
Will Iran close the Strait of Hormuz before 2027? Mar 12 $106 +$3 +2%
Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by June 30th? Mar 12 $63 +$1 +1%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $105 by end of March? Mar 12 $68 −$1 -2%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $80 by end of March? Mar 11 $91 −$6 -6%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $85 by end of March? Mar 11 $279 +$85 +31%
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the March 2026 mee Mar 10 $238 +$7 +3%
Will gas hit (High) $3.50 by March 31? Mar 10 $159 +$3 +2%
Will Trump nominate Kevin Warsh as the next Fed chair? Mar 04 $121 +$2 +2%
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on Febru Mar 04 $21 $0 +2%
Will MrBeast's next video get less than 60 million views on week 1? Mar 02 $26 $0 +1%
Will Anutin Charnvirakul be the next prime minister of Thailand? Feb 27 $26 $0 -0%
Will the next Dutch government be VVD + CDA + D66? Feb 23 $46 +$1 +1%
Will Norway win the most gold medals in the 2026 Winter Olympics? Feb 23 $15 $0 +1%
Will the US next strike Iran on January 31, 2026 (ET)? Feb 17 $49 −$2 -4%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: Spain O/U 0.5 BUY Over 96¢ $94 1h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 30¢ $61 15h
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 62¢ $47 6d
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 71¢ $42 6d
Will France win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 67¢ $28 6d
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 92¢ $37 6d
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 92¢ $31 6d
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 92¢ $42 6d
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by July 31? BUY Yes 98¢ $55 6d
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 52¢ $76 6d
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 42¢ $101 6d
Exact Score: Any Other Score? BUY Yes 100¢ $200 6d
Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? BUY Yes 90¢ $56 12d
Will a Claude Mythos model be released by July 31, 2026? BUY Yes 98¢ $112 12d
Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? BUY Yes 87¢ $76 12d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $56,000 on June 9? BUY Yes 100¢ $128 12d
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the June 2026 meet SELL Yes 99¢ $155 12d
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $1T? BUY Yes 99¢ $101 12d
Will Harvey Weinstein be sentenced to no prison time? SELL Yes 77¢ $35 13d
Will Microstrategy announce a Bitcoin purchase June 2-8? BUY Yes 97¢ $168 13d
Will Harvey Weinstein be sentenced to no prison time? BUY Yes 83¢ $39 34d
Will Putin visit China by May 31? SELL Yes 100¢ $47 34d
Will US crude oil reserves fall to 375M by June 5? BUY Yes 98¢ $36 34d
Will Putin visit China by May 31? BUY Yes 100¢ $47 34d
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the June 2026 meet BUY Yes 98¢ $63 37d
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on May 3 BUY Yes 92¢ $102 40d
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on May 3 BUY Yes 92¢ $68 40d
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the June 2026 meet BUY Yes 97¢ $91 40d
Will the next Prime Minister of Hungary be Péter Magyar? BUY Yes 100¢ $101 51d
Will Kevin Warsh be confirmed as Fed Chair? BUY Yes 99¢ $150 51d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $234.60 · official $234.75 (match) · 219 history records