Wallet analysis

2026-06-26T03:33:35+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.0
score
13 0x13e9…7cd4 crypto 1779 markets active 0h ago coverage 127d ⚠
UNRELIABLEdata unreliable crypto specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 126d onlyP/L from Polymarket (history capped)
✗ on-chain reconstruction ≠ official P&L (longshot/capped history)✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL −$4,112 (-13%) realized −$4,106 · open −$6
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +4% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -13% what you keep after slip
Net edge-13%after slip
Net WR54%break-even
Win rate54%917W / 775L
Whale WR40%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$17per market
Trades / day18.6pace
Fees−$8est.
Kalshi-fit99%portable
Net worth$789now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 127d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 70% +$1,968
other 15% −$798
sports 14% +$592
politics 1% +$42
world 0% +$457
finance 0% −$40
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +54%
net ROI/market (all)-6.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 256 +17.8% +6.6% 62% 62% +25.4%
≤30d 768 +6.5% -3.6% 56% 56% +14.0%
≤90d 1374 +4.3% -5.7% 55% 55% +7.0%
all 1692 +3.9% -6.0% 54% 54% -2.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover18.6 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -6.0% 54% -2.6%
10% -15.0% 54% -11.9%
15% -23.2% 54% -20.4%
20% -30.7% 53% -28.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 3% · top 2 7% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +18% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +4% · $-wt +8% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 40% (≥$500) big bets weaker
Persistence
early +1% → late +7% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$14 vs −$14 · ×1.02 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×1.2 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

127d coverage
Net worth$789
Realized−$4,106
Unrealized−$6
Win rate (resolved)54%
Wins / losses917 / 775
Whale WR (big bets)40%
Est. fees paid−$8
Open positions17
Markets (closed)1692 / 1779
History coverage127d ⚠
Avg bet$17
Trades / day18.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit99%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 17 History 1692 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Norway reach the Semifinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 83¢ 84¢ $300 $301 +$1 (+0%)
Will USA reach the Semifinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 84¢ 80¢ $245 $234 −$11 (-5%)
Will Germany reach the Semifinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 78¢ 81¢ $116 $120 +$4 (+4%)
Will Colombia reach the Semifinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 86¢ 89¢ $100 $103 +$3 (+3%)
Solana Up or Down - June 26, 3AM ET Down 50¢ 50¢ $3 $3 +$0 (+1%)
XRP Up or Down - June 26, 12PM ET Down 51¢ 50¢ $3 $3 −$0 (-1%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 4AM ET Down 51¢ 50¢ $3 $3 −$0 (-1%)
XRP Up or Down - June 26, 6:30AM-6:45AM ET Down 51¢ 50¢ $3 $3 −$0 (-1%)
Solana Up or Down - June 26, 1:00AM-1:15AM ET Up 51¢ 50¢ $3 $3 −$0 (-1%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 12:00AM-12:15AM ET Down 51¢ 50¢ $3 $3 −$0 (-1%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 11:15PM-11:30PM ET Up 51¢ 50¢ $3 $3 −$0 (-1%)
Ethereum Up or Down - June 26, 11:15PM-11:30PM ET Up 51¢ 50¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-1%)
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 26, 12:00AM-12:15AM ET Down 51¢ 50¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-1%)
Ethereum Up or Down - June 26, 1:00AM-1:15AM ET Up 51¢ 50¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-1%)
Ethereum Up or Down - June 26, 1AM ET Up 51¢ 50¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-1%)
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 26, 11:15PM-11:30PM ET Up 51¢ 50¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-2%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 7PM ET Up 51¢ 0¢ $3 $0 −$3 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 483 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 11:15PM-11:30PM ET Jun 26 $3 +$3 +90%
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 25, 10PM ET Jun 26 $8 +$7 +90%
XRP Up or Down - June 25, 10PM ET Jun 26 $6 +$4 +73%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 10PM ET Jun 26 $6 +$6 +90%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 10:00PM-10:15PM ET Jun 26 $3 +$3 +90%
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 25, 10:00PM-10:15PM ET Jun 26 $8 +$7 +84%
XRP Up or Down - June 25, 10:00PM-10:15PM ET Jun 26 $3 +$3 +87%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 25, 10:00PM-10:15PM ET Jun 26 $4 +$4 +92%
XRP Up or Down - June 25, 9:45PM-10:00PM ET Jun 26 $3 +$3 +90%
Solana Up or Down - June 25, 9:00PM-9:15PM ET Jun 26 $3 +$3 +90%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 9:00PM-9:15PM ET Jun 26 $6 +$6 +90%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 25, 4PM ET Jun 25 $2 +$2 +90%
Solana Up or Down - June 25, 4PM ET Jun 25 $3 +$3 +90%
Solana Up or Down - June 25, 2:30PM-2:45PM ET Jun 25 $6 +$6 +91%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 25, 12PM ET Jun 25 $2 +$2 +90%
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 25, 1PM ET Jun 25 $4 −$4 -96%
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 25, 9:15PM-9:30PM ET Jun 25 $4 −$4 -97%
Solana Up or Down - June 25, 6AM ET Jun 25 $3 +$3 +90%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 25, 6:30AM-6:45AM ET Jun 25 $2 +$2 +93%
Solana Up or Down - June 25, 6:30AM-6:45AM ET Jun 25 $6 +$6 +91%
Solana Up or Down - June 25, 9:45AM-10:00AM ET Jun 25 $3 −$3 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 4AM ET Jun 25 $3 +$3 +93%
XRP Up or Down - June 25, 4:30AM-4:45AM ET Jun 25 $3 +$3 +83%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 25, 4:15AM-4:30AM ET Jun 25 $2 +$2 +90%
XRP Up or Down - June 25, 3:45AM-4:00AM ET Jun 25 $6 +$6 +91%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 25, 1AM ET Jun 25 $2 +$2 +90%
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 25, 1:00AM-1:15AM ET Jun 25 $2 +$2 +86%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 12:00AM-12:15AM ET Jun 25 $6 +$6 +90%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 1:30AM-1:45AM ET Jun 25 $3 −$3 -97%
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 24, 11:30PM-11:45PM ET Jun 25 $2 +$2 +90%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 25, 11:15PM-11:30PM ET Jun 25 $2 −$2 -97%
XRP Up or Down - June 25, 11:15PM-11:30PM ET Jun 25 $3 −$3 -97%
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 24, 10PM ET Jun 25 $4 +$4 +90%
XRP Up or Down - June 24, 11:00PM-11:15PM ET Jun 25 $3 +$3 +93%
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 25, 10AM ET Jun 25 $2 −$2 -97%
XRP Up or Down - June 25, 8PM ET Jun 25 $3 −$3 -97%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 24, 10:00PM-10:15PM ET Jun 25 $8 +$7 +90%
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 24, 10:00PM-10:15PM ET Jun 25 $4 +$4 +89%
Solana Up or Down - June 24, 9:00PM-9:15PM ET Jun 25 $53 +$40 +76%
XRP Up or Down - June 24, 8PM ET Jun 25 $211 +$175 +83%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 7PM ET Jun 25 $12 +$11 +90%
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 24, 6PM ET Jun 24 $2 −$2 -96%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 24, 4PM ET Jun 24 $2 +$2 +90%
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 24, 4PM ET Jun 24 $2 +$2 +90%
Solana Up or Down - June 24, 4PM ET Jun 24 $3 +$3 +90%
XRP Up or Down - June 24, 3:15PM-3:30PM ET Jun 24 $3 +$3 +93%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 24, 12PM ET Jun 24 $4 +$4 +90%
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 24, 10AM ET Jun 24 $4 +$4 +90%
Solana Up or Down - June 24, 6AM ET Jun 24 $6 +$6 +90%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 24, 8:30PM-8:45PM ET Jun 24 $4 −$4 -97%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Ethereum Up or Down - June 26, 1:00AM-1:15AM ET BUY Up 51¢ $2 3m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 11:15PM-11:30PM ET BUY Up 51¢ $3 5m
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 26, 11:15PM-11:30PM ET BUY Up 51¢ $2 7m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 26, 11:15PM-11:30PM ET BUY Up 51¢ $2 8m
XRP Up or Down - June 26, 6:30AM-6:45AM ET BUY Down 51¢ $3 30m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 4AM ET BUY Down 51¢ $3 30m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 26, 1AM ET BUY Up 51¢ $2 30m
Solana Up or Down - June 26, 3AM ET BUY Down 50¢ $3 30m
Solana Up or Down - June 26, 1:00AM-1:15AM ET BUY Up 51¢ $3 30m
XRP Up or Down - June 26, 12PM ET BUY Down 51¢ $3 30m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 12:00AM-12:15AM ET BUY Down 51¢ $3 1h
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 26, 12:00AM-12:15AM ET BUY Down 51¢ $2 1h
XRP Up or Down - June 25, 10:00PM-10:15PM ET BUY Down 52¢ $3 1h
XRP Up or Down - June 25, 10PM ET BUY Down 56¢ $6 1h
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 25, 10:00PM-10:15PM ET BUY Down 53¢ $8 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 10:00PM-10:15PM ET BUY Down 51¢ $3 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 10PM ET BUY Down 51¢ $6 3h
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 25, 10PM ET BUY Down 51¢ $8 6h
Solana Up or Down - June 25, 9:00PM-9:15PM ET BUY Down 51¢ $3 8h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 25, 4PM ET BUY Up 51¢ $2 10h
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 25, 1PM ET BUY Down 48¢ $4 10h
Solana Up or Down - June 25, 2:30PM-2:45PM ET BUY Down 51¢ $6 13h
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 25, 9:15PM-9:30PM ET BUY Up 51¢ $4 14h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 25, 10:00PM-10:15PM ET BUY Down 50¢ $4 14h
Solana Up or Down - June 25, 4PM ET BUY Up 51¢ $3 16h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 25, 8:30AM-8:45AM ET BUY Down 51¢ $2 16h
Solana Up or Down - June 25, 9:45AM-10:00AM ET BUY Up 51¢ $3 16h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 7PM ET BUY Up 51¢ $3 18h
XRP Up or Down - June 25, 9:45PM-10:00PM ET BUY Up 51¢ $3 18h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 25, 6:30AM-6:45AM ET BUY Down 50¢ $2 19h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $789.15 · official $789.16 (match) · 3500 history records