Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T06:51:02+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
13 0x13ec…5fd2 crypto 44 markets active 1h ago coverage 140d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL +$870 (+13%) realized +$871 · open −$1
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +4% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -6% what you keep after slip
Net edge-6%after slip
Net WR8%break-even
Win rate92%37W / 3L
Drawdown0%max
Avg bet$153per market
Trades / day0.4pace
Kalshi-fit95%portable
Net worth$55now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$0
7 days−$3
14 days−$3
30 days+$831
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 51% −$5
crypto 25% +$844
culture 24% $0
tech 0% $0
sports 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +8%
net ROI/market (all)-5.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 11 +0.2% -9.4% 91% 0% -9.6%
≤30d 36 +2.8% -7.0% 97% 3% +5.4%
≤90d 37 +2.8% -7.0% 95% 3% +5.3%
all 40 +4.0% -5.9% 92% 8% +1.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.4 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -5.9% 8% +1.9%
10% -14.9% 5% -7.9%
15% -23.1% 5% -16.8%
20% -30.6% 2% -24.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 99% · top 2 100% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +16% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
92% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +4% · $-wt +13% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +8% → late +0% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$23 vs −$4 · ×6.06 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×224.1 per $1 lost it wins $224.1
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

140d coverage
Net worth$55
Realized+$871
Unrealized−$1
Win rate (resolved)92%
Wins / losses37 / 3
Open positions4
Markets (closed)40 / 44
History coverage140d
Avg bet$153
Trades / day0.4
Drawdown0%
Kalshi-fit95%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 4 History 40 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the price of Solana be above $80 on June 18? No 100¢ 100¢ $31 $31 −$0 (-0%)
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,500 on June 18? Yes 100¢ 100¢ $12 $12 −$0 (-0%)
Will the price of XRP be between $0.90 and $1.00 on June 18? No 100¢ 100¢ $10 $10 +$0 (+0%)
Will Austria win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 1¢ 0¢ $3 $2 −$1 (-25%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,600 on June 17? Jun 17 $12 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on June 17? Jun 17 $31 $0 +0%
Will the price of Solana be between $80 and $90 on June 16? Jun 16 $31 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 16? Jun 16 $10 $0 +0%
Will Algeria win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 15 $3,450 −$4 -0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,600 on June 13? Jun 13 $11 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on June 13? Jun 13 $30 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $58,000 on June 12? Jun 12 $11 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,500 on June 12? Jun 12 $30 $0 +0%
Will the price of Solana be above $80 on June 10? Jun 12 $13 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $56,000 on June 10? Jun 12 $30 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $58,000 on June 9? Jun 10 $10 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,400 on June 9? Jun 10 $30 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $56,000 on June 8? Jun 09 $11 $0 +0%
Will the price of Solana be above $80 on June 8? Jun 09 $31 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $58,000 on June 5? Jun 08 $10 $0 +1%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,500 on June 5? Jun 08 $30 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $68,000 and $70,000 on June 4? Jun 05 $11 $0 +1%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on June 4? Jun 05 $30 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $72,000 and $74,000 on June 3? Jun 04 $13 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $72,000 on June 3? Jun 04 $30 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,100 on June 2? Jun 03 $10 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 2? Jun 03 $30 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,900 on June 1? Jun 02 $10 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on June 1? Jun 02 $30 $0 +0%
Will the price of Solana be between $70 and $80 on May 26? Jun 01 $11 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,900 on May 29? Jun 01 $11 $0 +1%
Will Bitcoin reach $80,000 on May 29? Jun 01 $30 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be between $1,800 and $1,900 on May 28? May 29 $11 $0 +1%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on May 28? May 29 $30 $0 +0%
Will the price of Solana be between $80 and $90 on May 27? May 28 $11 $0 +1%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $72,000 on May 27? May 28 $30 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $72,000 on May 26? May 27 $30 $0 +0%
Solana Up or Down - May 25, 4:15AM-4:30AM ET May 25 $893 +$833 +93%
Will the price of Solana be above $80 on May 22? May 23 $11 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be between $2,300 and $2,400 on May 22? May 23 $31 $0 +0%
Will SpaceX's public ticker be $SPC? Mar 26 $15 $0 +0%
Kings vs. Celtics Mar 04 $2 $0 +19%
Will Vladimir Putin win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Mar 04 $1,580 $0 +0%
Will XRP dip to $1.40 in January? Jan 29 $23 +$9 +40%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the price of XRP be between $0.90 and $1.00 on June 18? BUY No 100¢ $10 1h
Will the price of Solana be above $80 on June 18? BUY No 100¢ $31 1h
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,500 on June 18? BUY Yes 100¢ $12 1h
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,600 on June 17? BUY Yes 100¢ $12 24h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on June 17? BUY Yes 100¢ $31 24h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 16? BUY Yes 100¢ $10 2d
Will the price of Solana be between $80 and $90 on June 16? BUY No 100¢ $31 2d
Will Algeria win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $3,446 2d
Will Algeria win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $3,450 2d
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,600 on June 13? BUY Yes 100¢ $11 4d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on June 13? BUY Yes 100¢ $30 4d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $58,000 on June 12? BUY Yes 100¢ $11 6d
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,500 on June 12? BUY Yes 100¢ $30 6d
Will the price of Solana be above $80 on June 10? BUY No 100¢ $13 8d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $56,000 on June 10? BUY Yes 100¢ $30 8d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $58,000 on June 9? BUY Yes 100¢ $10 9d
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,400 on June 9? BUY Yes 100¢ $30 9d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $56,000 on June 8? BUY Yes 100¢ $11 10d
Will the price of Solana be above $80 on June 8? BUY No 100¢ $31 10d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $58,000 on June 5? BUY Yes 99¢ $10 13d
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,500 on June 5? BUY Yes 100¢ $30 13d
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $68,000 and $70,000 on June 4? BUY No 99¢ $11 14d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on June 4? BUY No 100¢ $30 14d
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $72,000 and $74,000 on June 3? BUY No 100¢ $13 15d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $72,000 on June 3? BUY No 100¢ $30 15d
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,100 on June 2? BUY No 100¢ $10 15d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 2? BUY Yes 100¢ $30 15d
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,900 on June 1? BUY Yes 100¢ $10 17d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on June 1? BUY Yes 100¢ $30 17d
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,900 on May 29? BUY Yes 99¢ $11 20d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $55.12 · official $55.12 (match) · 89 history records