Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T16:53:30+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
13 0x13ee…01ae sports 183 markets active 0h ago coverage 55d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover
✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$7,152 (-18%) realized −$6,696 · open −$456
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +47% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +23% what you keep after slip
Net edge+23%after slip
Net WR38%break-even
Win rate50%90W / 91L
Whale WR86%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$221per market
Trades / day16.1pace
Fees−$653est.
Kalshi-fit95%portable
Net worth$135now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$30
7 days−$541
14 days−$1,034
30 days−$3,740
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 93% −$7,614
other 7% −$369
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
borderline — thin edge, slippage-sensitive
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +38%
net ROI/market (all)+33.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 28 -2.8% -12.0% 43% 43% -15.5%
≤30d 99 +64.3% +48.7% 41% 39% -26.2%
≤90d 181 +47.2% +33.2% 50% 38% -28.4%
all 181 +47.2% +33.2% 50% 38% -28.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover16.1 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to15%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +33.2% 38% -28.4%
10% +20.4% 30% -35.2%
15% +8.8% 27% -41.5%
20% -1.9% 23% -47.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 6% · top 2 11% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -20% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
21% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +47% · $-wt -20% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 86% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +40% → late +54% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
3.0 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$107 vs −$191 · ×0.56 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.56 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

55d coverage
Net worth$135
Realized−$6,696
Unrealized−$456
Win rate (resolved)50%
Wins / losses90 / 91
Whale WR (big bets)86%
Est. fees paid−$653
Open positions2
Markets (closed)181 / 183
History coverage55d
Avg bet$221
Trades / day16.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit95%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 181 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Dota 2: Power Rangers vs 4ikibamboni - Game 3 Winner 4ikibamboni 39¢ 33¢ $160 $135 −$25 (-15%)
Dota 2: Power Rangers vs 4ikibamboni - Game 2 Winner Power Rangers 53¢ 0¢ $431 $0 −$431 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 87 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Dota 2: Rune Eaters vs MODUS (BO3) - The International Europe Closed Q Jun 23 $293 +$404 +138%
Dota 2: Rune Eaters vs MODUS - Game 1 Winner Jun 23 $200 −$200 -100%
Dota 2: Rune Eaters vs MODUS - Game 2 Winner Jun 23 $325 −$322 -99%
Dota 2: Power Rangers vs L1ga Team (BO3) - The International Europe Cl Jun 22 $228 +$128 +56%
Dota 2: Power Rangers vs L1ga Team - Game 2 Winner Jun 22 $169 −$167 -99%
Dota 2: Virtus.pro vs Inner Circle (BO3) - The International Europe Cl Jun 22 $299 +$168 +56%
Dota 2: Virtus.pro vs Inner Circle - Game 2 Winner Jun 22 $154 −$151 -98%
Dota 2: Virtus.pro vs Inner Circle - Game 1 Winner Jun 22 $94 +$342 +365%
Valorant: Paper Rex vs Leviatán Esports (BO5) - VCT Masters London Pla Jun 21 $314 −$172 -55%
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs Team Falcons - Map 1 Winner Jun 21 $394 +$288 +73%
LoL: Dplus KIA Challengers vs T1 Academy - Game 4 Winner Jun 21 $425 −$418 -98%
LoL: Dplus KIA Challengers vs T1 Academy - Game 2 Winner Jun 21 $215 −$211 -98%
LoL: Dplus KIA Challengers vs T1 Academy - Game 1 Winner Jun 21 $382 +$319 +84%
Dota 2: Hive vs Flame Team (BO3) - European Pro League Playoffs Jun 20 $170 +$208 +122%
Valorant: EDward Gaming vs Leviatán Esports (BO5) - VCT Masters London Jun 20 $326 −$320 -98%
LoL: T1 Academy vs KT Rolster Challengers - Game 3 Winner Jun 19 $534 −$230 -43%
LoL: T1 Academy vs KT Rolster Challengers - Game 2 Winner Jun 19 $669 +$138 +21%
LoL: T1 Academy vs KT Rolster Challengers - Game 1 Winner Jun 19 $344 −$327 -95%
LoL: KT Rolster Challengers vs Nongshim Esports Academy - Game 4 Winne Jun 18 $378 −$376 -99%
LoL: KT Rolster Challengers vs Nongshim Esports Academy - Game 3 Winne Jun 18 $235 +$325 +138%
LoL: KT Rolster Challengers vs Nongshim Esports Academy - Game 2 Winne Jun 18 $565 +$562 +100%
LoL: Dplus KIA Challengers vs T1 Academy (BO5) - Asia Masters Playoffs Jun 18 $184 −$180 -98%
LoL: Dplus KIA Challengers vs T1 Academy - Game 3 Winner Jun 18 $207 −$207 -100%
LoL: Dplus KIA Challengers vs T1 Academy - Game 2 Winner Jun 18 $137 +$319 +233%
Game Handicap: T1.A (-1.5) vs Nongshim Esports Academy (+1.5) Jun 17 $380 −$245 -64%
LoL: KT Rolster Challengers vs Dplus KIA Challengers - Game 3 Winner Jun 17 $423 +$463 +110%
LoL: KT Rolster Challengers vs Dplus KIA Challengers - Game 1 Winner Jun 17 $451 −$444 -98%
Dota 2: Team Refuser vs Game Master - Game 2 Winner Jun 17 $239 −$234 -98%
Valorant: XLG Gaming vs Leviatán Esports (BO3) - VCT Masters London Pl Jun 16 $99 +$51 +51%
LoL: Solary vs Galions - Game 3 Winner Jun 15 $168 −$76 -46%
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs FUT Esports - Map 2 Winner Jun 15 $79 −$78 -98%
LoL: Saigon Warriors vs Top Esports Challenger (BO3) - Asia Masters La Jun 15 $308 −$303 -98%
LoL: Saigon Warriors vs Top Esports Challenger - Game 2 Winner Jun 15 $50 −$50 -100%
LoL: Saigon Warriors vs Top Esports Challenger - Game 1 Winner Jun 15 $166 +$394 +237%
Games Total: O/U 2.5 Jun 15 $262 +$93 +35%
LoL: LYON vs Team Liquid - Game 1 Winner Jun 14 $167 −$166 -100%
LoL: Galions vs Eintracht Spandau (BO5) - EMEA Masters Playoffs Jun 14 $119 −$118 -99%
Game Handicap: GEN (-1.5) vs KT Rolster (+1.5) Jun 13 $118 −$115 -98%
Counter-Strike: Wanted Goons vs Overtake (BO3) - NSTLGA League Playoff Jun 12 $123 −$123 -100%
LoL: FlyQuest vs Team Liquid - Game 4 Winner Jun 06 $207 −$192 -93%
LoL: FlyQuest vs Team Liquid - Game 3 Winner Jun 06 $204 $0 +0%
LoL: FlyQuest vs Team Liquid - Game 2 Winner Jun 06 $200 +$104 +52%
LoL: FlyQuest vs Team Liquid - Game 1 Winner Jun 06 $216 −$195 -90%
LoL: FURIA Esports vs LOS - Game 4 Winner Jun 06 $191 −$191 -100%
LoL: JD Gaming vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 3 Winner Jun 06 $51 +$24 +48%
LoL: Deep Cross Gaming vs GAM Esports - Game 4 Winner Jun 06 $254 −$254 -100%
LoL: Deep Cross Gaming vs GAM Esports - Game 3 Winner Jun 06 $365 −$362 -99%
LoL: Conviction vs CCG Esports - Game 2 Winner Jun 05 $211 −$211 -100%
LoL: Conviction vs CCG Esports - Game 1 Winner Jun 05 $141 −$138 -98%
Games Total: O/U 3.5 Jun 05 $263 +$299 +114%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Dota 2: Power Rangers vs 4ikibamboni - Game 3 Winner BUY 4ikibamboni 39¢ $162 22m
Dota 2: Power Rangers vs 4ikibamboni - Game 2 Winner BUY Power Rangers 50¢ $174 1h
Dota 2: Power Rangers vs 4ikibamboni - Game 2 Winner BUY Power Rangers 56¢ $264 1h
Dota 2: Rune Eaters vs MODUS (BO3) - The International Europe Closed Q SELL MODUS 100¢ $697 2h
Dota 2: Rune Eaters vs MODUS (BO3) - The International Europe Closed Q BUY MODUS 42¢ $288 3h
Dota 2: Rune Eaters vs MODUS (BO3) - The International Europe Closed Q BUY MODUS 42¢ $6 3h
Dota 2: Rune Eaters vs MODUS - Game 2 Winner BUY Rune Eaters 66¢ $58 4h
Dota 2: Rune Eaters vs MODUS - Game 2 Winner BUY Rune Eaters 66¢ $267 4h
Dota 2: Rune Eaters vs MODUS - Game 1 Winner BUY MODUS 29¢ $200 5h
Dota 2: Power Rangers vs L1ga Team (BO3) - The International Europe Cl SELL Power Rangers 100¢ $357 22h
Dota 2: Power Rangers vs L1ga Team (BO3) - The International Europe Cl BUY Power Rangers 64¢ $17 23h
Dota 2: Power Rangers vs L1ga Team (BO3) - The International Europe Cl BUY Power Rangers 64¢ $5 23h
Dota 2: Power Rangers vs L1ga Team (BO3) - The International Europe Cl BUY Power Rangers 63¢ $207 23h
Dota 2: Power Rangers vs L1ga Team - Game 2 Winner BUY Power Rangers 30¢ $6 25h
Dota 2: Power Rangers vs L1ga Team - Game 2 Winner BUY Power Rangers 30¢ $8 25h
Dota 2: Power Rangers vs L1ga Team - Game 2 Winner BUY Power Rangers 30¢ $36 25h
Dota 2: Power Rangers vs L1ga Team - Game 2 Winner BUY Power Rangers 30¢ $20 25h
Dota 2: Power Rangers vs L1ga Team - Game 2 Winner BUY Power Rangers 30¢ $2 25h
Dota 2: Power Rangers vs L1ga Team - Game 2 Winner BUY Power Rangers 28¢ $88 25h
Dota 2: Power Rangers vs L1ga Team - Game 2 Winner BUY Power Rangers 30¢ $2 25h
Dota 2: Power Rangers vs L1ga Team - Game 2 Winner BUY Power Rangers 30¢ $7 25h
Dota 2: Virtus.pro vs Inner Circle (BO3) - The International Europe Cl SELL Virtus.pro 100¢ $467 27h
Dota 2: Virtus.pro vs Inner Circle (BO3) - The International Europe Cl BUY Virtus.pro 64¢ $143 27h
Dota 2: Virtus.pro vs Inner Circle (BO3) - The International Europe Cl BUY Virtus.pro 64¢ $156 27h
Dota 2: Virtus.pro vs Inner Circle - Game 2 Winner BUY Inner Circle 28¢ $154 29h
Dota 2: Virtus.pro vs Inner Circle - Game 1 Winner SELL Inner Circle 100¢ $436 29h
Dota 2: Virtus.pro vs Inner Circle - Game 1 Winner BUY Inner Circle 21¢ $94 30h
Valorant: Paper Rex vs Leviatán Esports (BO5) - VCT Masters London Pla SELL Leviatán Esports 100¢ $400 45h
Valorant: Paper Rex vs Leviatán Esports (BO5) - VCT Masters London Pla BUY Paper Rex 43¢ $169 46h
Valorant: Paper Rex vs Leviatán Esports (BO5) - VCT Masters London Pla BUY Paper Rex 43¢ $3 46h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $135.37 · official $135.37 (match) · 914 history records