Wallet analysis

2026-06-29T18:41:29+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.0
score
13 0x13f4…23e4 sports 45 markets active 0h ago coverage 10d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$178 (+6%) realized +$185 · open −$7
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -15% what you keep after slip
Net edge-15%after slip
Net WR43%break-even
Win rate45%20W / 24L
Drawdown91%max
Avg bet$62per market
Trades / day7.7pace
Fees−$31est.
Kalshi-fit62%portable
Net worth$28now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$113
7 days+$23
14 days+$160
30 days+$160
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 64% +$232
other 36% −$78
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +43%
net ROI/market (all)-11.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 36 -9.1% -17.7% 42% 39% -8.6%
≤30d 44 -2.3% -11.6% 45% 43% -4.3%
≤90d 44 -2.3% -11.6% 45% 43% -4.3%
all 44 -2.3% -11.6% 45% 43% -4.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover7.7 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -11.6% 43% -4.3%
10% -20.0% 41% -13.4%
15% -27.8% 39% -21.8%
20% -34.8% 34% -29.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 14% · top 2 22% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +6% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
5% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -2% · $-wt +6% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +10% → late -15% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$43 vs −$29 · ×1.48 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×1.23 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

10d coverage
Net worth$28
Realized+$185
Unrealized−$7
Win rate (resolved)45%
Wins / losses20 / 24
Est. fees paid−$31
Open positions1
Markets (closed)44 / 45
History coverage10d
Avg bet$62
Trades / day7.7
Drawdown91%
Kalshi-fit62%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 44 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Brazil vs. Japan: O/U 2.5 Over 56¢ 46¢ $35 $28 −$7 (-19%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Brazil vs. Japan: Both Teams to Score Jun 29 $51 +$44 +86%
Brazil vs. Japan: 1st Half O/U 0.5 Jun 29 $51 +$31 +61%
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-26? Jun 29 $26 −$26 -100%
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-26? Jun 29 $26 −$26 -100%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-28? Jun 28 $67 +$54 +81%
Jordan vs. Argentina: O/U 5.5 Jun 28 $194 +$12 +6%
Algeria vs. Austria: Both Teams to Score Jun 28 $51 +$48 +94%
Colombia vs. Portugal: O/U 0.5 Jun 28 $26 −$18 -69%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-27? Jun 28 $51 −$30 -58%
Colombia vs. Portugal: Both Teams to Score Jun 28 $51 −$22 -43%
Panama vs. England: O/U 3.5 Jun 27 $51 +$45 +88%
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-27? Jun 27 $51 −$3 -6%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-25? Jun 27 $51 −$51 -100%
Norway vs. France: Both Teams to Score Jun 26 $198 +$27 +14%
Will United States win on 2026-06-25? Jun 26 $142 −$28 -20%
Spread: Netherlands (-2.5) Jun 26 $51 −$2 -3%
Will Ecuador vs. Germany end in a draw? Jun 26 $10 −$10 -100%
Czechia vs. Mexico: Both Teams to Score Jun 26 $61 −$61 -100%
Scotland vs. Brazil: Both Teams to Score Jun 26 $26 −$26 -100%
Spread: Côte d'Ivoire (-1.5) Jun 25 $51 −$2 -4%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-24? Jun 25 $51 +$46 +89%
South Africa vs. Korea Republic: Both Teams to Score Jun 25 $51 −$21 -40%
South Africa vs. Korea Republic: O/U 2.5 Jun 25 $51 −$34 -66%
Scotland vs. Brazil: O/U 2.5 Jun 25 $51 +$40 +79%
Spread: Morocco (-2.5) Jun 24 $51 −$31 -61%
Switzerland vs. Canada: Both Teams to Score Jun 24 $51 +$41 +81%
Switzerland vs. Canada: O/U 2.5 Jun 24 $51 −$6 -12%
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-23? Jun 24 $72 +$48 +67%
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-23? Jun 24 $51 +$25 +48%
England leading at halftime? Jun 24 $102 −$102 -100%
Spread: Portugal (-2.5) Jun 23 $103 +$36 +35%
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? Jun 23 $51 +$72 +140%
Belgium vs. IR Iran: 1st Half O/U 0.5 Jun 23 $51 −$51 -100%
United States vs. Australia: Both Teams to Score Jun 23 $61 −$61 -100%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? Jun 23 $51 −$51 -100%
Spread: Argentina (-1.5) Jun 22 $134 +$117 +87%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? Jun 22 $102 −$5 -5%
Spread: Spain (-2.5) Jun 21 $51 +$34 +67%
Tunisia vs. Japan: 1st Half O/U 1.5 Jun 21 $51 +$27 +52%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? Jun 21 $51 +$25 +48%
Netherlands vs. Sweden: Both Teams to Score Jun 21 $71 +$41 +58%
Exact Score: Türkiye 2 - 1 Paraguay? Jun 20 $10 −$3 -28%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $51 −$22 -44%
Spread: Brazil (-2.5) Jun 20 $51 +$41 +79%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Brazil vs. Japan: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 56¢ $36 11m
Brazil vs. Japan: Both Teams to Score SELL Yes 98¢ $95 23m
Brazil vs. Japan: 1st Half O/U 0.5 SELL Over 100¢ $82 49m
Brazil vs. Japan: 1st Half O/U 0.5 BUY Over 60¢ $51 1h
Brazil vs. Japan: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 51¢ $51 1h
Will Canada win on 2026-06-28? BUY Yes 54¢ $67 25h
Jordan vs. Argentina: O/U 5.5 SELL Under 100¢ $207 38h
Jordan vs. Argentina: O/U 5.5 BUY Under 92¢ $194 39h
Algeria vs. Austria: Both Teams to Score SELL Yes 97¢ $99 39h
Algeria vs. Austria: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 48¢ $51 40h
Colombia vs. Portugal: O/U 0.5 SELL Under 17¢ $8 41h
Colombia vs. Portugal: O/U 0.5 BUY Under 52¢ $26 41h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-27? SELL Yes 24¢ $21 41h
Colombia vs. Portugal: Both Teams to Score SELL Yes 37¢ $29 42h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-27? BUY Yes 54¢ $51 43h
Colombia vs. Portugal: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 62¢ $51 43h
Panama vs. England: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 52¢ $51 2d
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-27? SELL Yes 54¢ $48 2d
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-27? BUY Yes 55¢ $51 2d
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-26? BUY Yes 38¢ $26 2d
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-26? BUY Yes 24¢ $26 2d
Norway vs. France: Both Teams to Score SELL Yes 57¢ $98 2d
Norway vs. France: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 64¢ $198 3d
Will United States win on 2026-06-25? SELL Yes 44¢ $114 3d
Will United States win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 51¢ $71 3d
Spread: Netherlands (-2.5) SELL Netherlands 42¢ $50 3d
Spread: Netherlands (-2.5) BUY Netherlands 41¢ $51 3d
Will Ecuador vs. Germany end in a draw? BUY Yes 20¢ $10 4d
Spread: Côte d'Ivoire (-1.5) SELL Côte dIvoire 66¢ $49 4d
Spread: Côte d'Ivoire (-1.5) BUY Côte dIvoire 66¢ $51 4d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $28.44 · official $30.94 · 96 history records