Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T09:34:59+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.0
score
13 0x13f4…7366 crypto 63 markets active 6d ago coverage 31d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$26 (+13%) realized +$26 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -15% what you keep after slip
Net edge-15%after slip
Net WR40%break-even
Win rate46%29W / 34L
Drawdown80%max
Avg bet$3per market
Trades / day3.7pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit98%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days−$10
14 days+$14
30 days+$13
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 90% +$14
sports 6% −$7
culture 1% −$1
politics 1% $0
world 1% $0
other 1% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +40%
net ROI/market (all)-11.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 12 -31.7% -38.2% 42% 42% -33.5%
≤30d 57 +1.9% -7.8% 51% 44% -2.7%
≤90d 63 -2.4% -11.7% 46% 40% -7.2%
all 63 -2.4% -11.7% 46% 40% -7.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover3.7 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -11.7% 40% -7.2%
10% -20.1% 37% -16.1%
15% -27.8% 37% -24.2%
20% -34.9% 32% -31.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 17% · top 2 29% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +3% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
10% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -2% · $-wt +3% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -10% → late +5% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$3 vs −$3 · ×1.24 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×1.06 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

31d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$26
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)46%
Wins / losses29 / 34
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions0
Markets (closed)63 / 63
History coverage31d
Avg bet$3
Trades / day3.7
Drawdown80%
Kalshi-fit98%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 63 Trades
no open positions (23 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 11:00PM-11:15PM ET Jun 11 $2 −$1 -48%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 10:45PM-11:00PM ET Jun 11 $4 −$2 -48%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 8:30PM-8:45PM ET Jun 11 $2 −$2 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 8:15PM-8:30PM ET Jun 11 $5 −$5 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 8:00PM-8:15PM ET Jun 11 $6 −$6 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 7:45PM-8:00PM ET Jun 10 $5 +$3 +58%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 7:30PM-7:45PM ET Jun 10 $4 +$2 +47%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 4:45PM-5:00PM ET Jun 10 $2 −$2 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 4:30PM-4:45PM ET Jun 10 $2 +$1 +44%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 4:15PM-4:30PM ET Jun 10 $2 +$2 +107%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 4:00PM-4:15PM ET Jun 10 $4 −$3 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 3:45PM-4:00PM ET Jun 10 $4 +$3 +64%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 7:30PM-7:45PM ET Jun 09 $5 −$5 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 7:15PM-7:30PM ET Jun 09 $5 +$5 +98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 7:00PM-7:15PM ET Jun 09 $5 −$5 -90%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 6:45PM-7:00PM ET Jun 09 $5 −$5 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 5:30PM-5:45PM ET Jun 09 $5 +$10 +190%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 4:45PM-5:00PM ET Jun 09 $5 +$16 +295%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 4:30PM-4:45PM ET Jun 09 $4 +$11 +258%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 4:15PM-4:30PM ET Jun 09 $12 −$11 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 4:00PM-4:15PM ET Jun 09 $8 +$7 +83%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 3:45PM-4:00PM ET Jun 09 $11 −$5 -47%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 1:15PM-1:30PM ET Jun 09 $2 +$2 +86%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 3:15PM-3:30PM ET Jun 09 $2 $0 +19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 3:30PM-3:45PM ET Jun 09 $5 +$5 +96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 3:00PM-3:15PM ET Jun 09 $5 $0 -0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 2:45PM-3:00PM ET Jun 09 $7 −$7 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 2:30PM-2:45PM ET Jun 09 $3 +$4 +129%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 1:30PM-1:45PM ET Jun 09 $5 +$4 +70%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 1:00PM-1:15PM ET Jun 09 $2 $0 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 1:05PM-1:10PM ET Jun 09 $2 −$2 -95%
Houston Astros vs. Chicago Cubs May 23 $2 −$2 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 23, 3:30PM-3:45PM ET May 23 $1 −$1 -71%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 23, 3:15PM-3:30PM ET May 23 $1 −$1 -89%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 23, 11:00AM-11:15AM ET May 23 $2 +$1 +68%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 23, 10:45AM-11:00AM ET May 23 $1 +$2 +211%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 23, 10:30AM-10:45AM ET May 23 $2 −$1 -51%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 23, 10:35AM-10:40AM ET May 23 $1 +$2 +197%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 23, 10:15AM-10:30AM ET May 23 $1 −$1 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 23, 10:20AM-10:25AM ET May 23 $1 −$1 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 23, 10:15AM-10:20AM ET May 23 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 23, 10:10AM-10:15AM ET May 23 $2 +$4 +181%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 21, 10:35PM-10:40PM ET May 22 $2 −$2 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 21, 10:20PM-10:25PM ET May 22 $1 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 21, 10:30PM-10:35PM ET May 22 $2 +$2 +96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 21, 10:25PM-10:30PM ET May 22 $1 +$1 +133%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 21, 10:10PM-10:15PM ET May 22 $1 $0 +46%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 21, 10:15PM-10:20PM ET May 22 $1 −$1 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 21, 10:05PM-10:10PM ET May 22 $1 −$1 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 21, 10:00PM-10:05PM ET May 22 $2 $0 +14%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 11:00PM-11:15PM ET BUY Up 22¢ $1 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 11:00PM-11:15PM ET SELL Down 70¢ $2 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 11:00PM-11:15PM ET BUY Down 38¢ $1 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 10:45PM-11:00PM ET BUY Down 35¢ $2 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 10:45PM-11:00PM ET SELL Up 56¢ $3 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 10:45PM-11:00PM ET BUY Up 36¢ $2 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 8:30PM-8:45PM ET BUY Up 38¢ $2 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 8:15PM-8:30PM ET BUY Down 22¢ $5 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 8:00PM-8:15PM ET BUY Down 26¢ $6 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 7:45PM-8:00PM ET SELL Up 50¢ $8 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 7:45PM-8:00PM ET BUY Up 29¢ $5 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 7:30PM-7:45PM ET SELL Up 51¢ $6 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 7:30PM-7:45PM ET BUY Up 32¢ $4 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 4:45PM-5:00PM ET BUY Up 39¢ $2 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 4:30PM-4:45PM ET SELL Up 50¢ $3 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 4:30PM-4:45PM ET BUY Up 32¢ $2 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 4:15PM-4:30PM ET SELL Up 77¢ $4 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 4:15PM-4:30PM ET BUY Up 35¢ $2 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 4:00PM-4:15PM ET BUY Up 11¢ $1 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 4:00PM-4:15PM ET BUY Up 29¢ $2 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 3:45PM-4:00PM ET SELL Up 50¢ $4 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 3:45PM-4:00PM ET BUY Up 24¢ $2 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 3:45PM-4:00PM ET SELL Up 42¢ $3 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 3:45PM-4:00PM ET BUY Up 28¢ $2 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 7:30PM-7:45PM ET BUY Up 16¢ $5 7d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 7:15PM-7:30PM ET SELL Down 52¢ $10 7d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 7:15PM-7:30PM ET BUY Down 24¢ $5 7d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 7:00PM-7:15PM ET SELL Down 4¢ $1 7d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 7:00PM-7:15PM ET BUY Down 36¢ $5 7d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 6:45PM-7:00PM ET BUY Up 9¢ $5 7d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 134 history records