Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T02:24:12+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
13 0x13f7…13ad sports 137 markets active 0h ago coverage 67d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$272 (+3%) realized +$277 · open −$5
Gross ROI / mkt -5% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -18% what you keep after slip
Net edge-18%after slip
Net WR39%break-even
Win rate44%60W / 76L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$59per market
Trades / day5.0pace
Fees−$96est.
Kalshi-fit72%portable
Net worth$12now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$54
7 days−$37
14 days−$37
30 days−$49
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 59% +$201
other 41% −$302
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +39%
net ROI/market (all)-14.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 48 -5.7% -14.7% 50% 48% -10.7%
≤30d 51 -7.5% -16.3% 49% 45% -11.0%
≤90d 136 -5.0% -14.1% 44% 39% -10.6%
all 136 -5.0% -14.1% 44% 39% -10.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover5.0 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -14.1% 39% -10.6%
10% -22.3% 32% -19.1%
15% -29.8% 26% -27.0%
20% -36.7% 14% -34.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 6% · top 2 12% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
12% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -5% · $-wt -1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -4% → late -7% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$28 vs −$24 · ×1.2 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.95 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

67d coverage
Net worth$12
Realized+$277
Unrealized−$5
Win rate (resolved)44%
Wins / losses60 / 76
Est. fees paid−$96
Open positions1
Markets (closed)136 / 137
History coverage67d
Avg bet$59
Trades / day5.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit72%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 136 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Spread: Colombia (-2.5) Colombia 33¢ 22¢ $17 $12 −$5 (-32%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Spread: Toronto Blue Jays (-1.5) Jun 18 $26 −$9 -33%
Washington Mystics vs. Connecticut Sun Jun 18 $20 +$6 +29%
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? Jun 18 $146 −$126 -86%
England vs. Croatia: 1st Half O/U 1.5 Jun 17 $174 −$66 -38%
England vs. Croatia: England 1st Half O/U 0.5 Jun 17 $126 +$53 +42%
Spread: Austria (-2.5) Jun 17 $108 +$14 +13%
Spread: Norway (-2.5) Jun 16 $97 −$24 -25%
Spread: France (-1.5) Jun 16 $45 +$52 +115%
Valorant: Team Vitality vs FUT Esports - Map 2 Winner Jun 16 $51 +$25 +50%
Valorant: Team Vitality vs FUT Esports - Map 1 Winner Jun 16 $41 +$20 +48%
Spread: Uruguay (-1.5) Jun 15 $73 −$31 -42%
Will Ilia Topuria win by KO or TKO? Jun 15 $67 −$67 -100%
UFC Freedom 250: Ciryl Gane vs. Alex Pereira (Heavyweight, Main Card) Jun 15 $51 −$51 -100%
Will Derrick Lewis win by KO or TKO? Jun 15 $28 −$28 -100%
Will Sean O'Malley win by KO or TKO? Jun 15 $47 +$74 +157%
Sweden vs. Tunisia: Sweden O/U 2.5 Jun 15 $31 −$10 -32%
Will Mauricio Ruffy win by KO or TKO? Jun 15 $106 +$17 +16%
UFC Freedom 250: Kyle Daukaus vs. Bo Nickal (Middleweight, Main Card) Jun 15 $59 +$16 +27%
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: Ecuador O/U 0.5 Jun 15 $111 −$72 -65%
UFC Freedom 250: Steve Garcia vs. Diego Lopes (Featherweight, Main Car Jun 15 $88 +$19 +22%
Miami Marlins vs. Pittsburgh Pirates Jun 14 $45 +$25 +54%
Exact Score: Haiti 0 - 3 Scotland? Jun 14 $2 −$2 -100%
Haiti vs. Scotland: Draw at halftime? Jun 14 $28 −$13 -45%
LoL: Team WE vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 4 Winner Jun 14 $5 −$5 -100%
Counter-Strike: B8 vs FUT Esports - Map 2 Winner Jun 13 $114 +$52 +45%
Spread: Athletics (-1.5) Jun 13 $31 −$14 -47%
Chicago Cubs vs. San Francisco Giants Jun 13 $128 +$72 +56%
Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Cincinnati Reds Jun 13 $69 +$61 +89%
Call of Duty: Los Angeles Thieves vs Boston Breach (BO5) - Call of Dut Jun 13 $7 −$7 -100%
Detroit Tigers vs. Cleveland Guardians Jun 13 $30 +$6 +18%
Dota 2: Estar Backs vs Gior Dota Team (BO3) - The International South Jun 12 $9 −$5 -51%
Call of Duty: Paris Gentle Mates vs FaZe Vegas (BO5) - Call of Duty Le Jun 12 $99 −$15 -15%
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs BetBoom Team - Map 2 Winner Jun 12 $14 −$14 -100%
HSBC Championships: Iva Jovic vs Amanda Anisimova Jun 12 $115 −$101 -88%
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs BetBoom Team - Map 1 Winner Jun 12 $86 +$32 +37%
Valorant: Paper Rex vs Leviatán Esports - Map 1 Winner Jun 12 $13 +$5 +38%
Counter-Strike: FUT Esports vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 12 $47 −$35 -74%
Counter-Strike: FUT Esports vs G2 - Map 2 Winner Jun 12 $34 +$14 +42%
Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs Monte - Map 2 Winner Jun 12 $60 −$26 -43%
LoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs T1 - Game 4 Winner Jun 12 $43 +$20 +46%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? Jun 12 $58 +$68 +118%
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-11? Jun 12 $31 −$4 -12%
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Pittsburgh Pirates Jun 11 $62 +$27 +43%
Texas Rangers vs. Kansas City Royals Jun 11 $107 +$8 +8%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Spirit - Map 2 Winner Jun 11 $47 +$11 +24%
LoL: Team Heretics Academy vs Forsaken - Game 2 Winner Jun 11 $60 −$12 -21%
Libema Open: Ajla Tomljanovic vs Dayana Yastremska Jun 11 $66 −$5 -7%
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 11 $60 +$7 +12%
Cleveland Guardians vs. New York Yankees Jun 03 $10 $0 +3%
Game Handicap: TOR (-1.5) vs Carolina Royal Ravens (+1.5) May 29 $10 −$10 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Spread: Colombia (-2.5) BUY Colombia 33¢ $18 19m
Spread: Toronto Blue Jays (-1.5) SELL Toronto Blue Jays 59¢ $18 1h
Spread: Toronto Blue Jays (-1.5) BUY Toronto Blue Jays 85¢ $26 1h
Washington Mystics vs. Connecticut Sun SELL Washington Mystics 98¢ $26 1h
Washington Mystics vs. Connecticut Sun BUY Washington Mystics 70¢ $12 1h
Washington Mystics vs. Connecticut Sun BUY Washington Mystics 80¢ $8 1h
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? SELL Yes $4 1h
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? SELL Yes $16 1h
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 32¢ $146 3h
England vs. Croatia: 1st Half O/U 1.5 SELL Over 38¢ $108 5h
England vs. Croatia: 1st Half O/U 1.5 BUY Over 58¢ $174 6h
England vs. Croatia: England 1st Half O/U 0.5 SELL Over 99¢ $180 6h
England vs. Croatia: England 1st Half O/U 0.5 BUY Over 68¢ $126 6h
Spread: Austria (-2.5) SELL Austria 24¢ $26 21h
Spread: Austria (-2.5) SELL Austria 29¢ $96 21h
Spread: Austria (-2.5) BUY Austria 23¢ $108 22h
Spread: Norway (-2.5) SELL Norway 28¢ $73 28h
Spread: Norway (-2.5) BUY Norway 35¢ $97 28h
Spread: France (-1.5) SELL France 90¢ $97 29h
Spread: France (-1.5) BUY France 40¢ $37 32h
Valorant: Team Vitality vs FUT Esports - Map 2 Winner SELL Team Vitality 84¢ $77 33h
Spread: France (-1.5) BUY France 41¢ $8 33h
Valorant: Team Vitality vs FUT Esports - Map 2 Winner BUY Team Vitality 54¢ $51 33h
Valorant: Team Vitality vs FUT Esports - Map 1 Winner SELL Team Vitality 100¢ $61 33h
Valorant: Team Vitality vs FUT Esports - Map 1 Winner BUY Team Vitality 65¢ $41 33h
Spread: Uruguay (-1.5) SELL Uruguay 22¢ $42 2d
Spread: Uruguay (-1.5) BUY Uruguay 30¢ $22 2d
Spread: Uruguay (-1.5) BUY Uruguay 39¢ $51 2d
Will Ilia Topuria win by KO or TKO? BUY Yes 66¢ $67 2d
UFC Freedom 250: Ciryl Gane vs. Alex Pereira (Heavyweight, Main Card) BUY Alex Pereira 52¢ $51 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $11.59 · official $11.59 (match) · 356 history records