Wallet analysis

2026-06-26T05:36:50+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.0
score
13 0x13fb…f2fd sports 31 markets active 2h ago coverage 229d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$1,356 (-21%) realized −$1,358 · open +$2
Gross ROI / mkt -3% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -12% what you keep after slip
Net edge-12%after slip
Net WR38%break-even
Win rate45%13W / 16L
Whale WR60%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$210per market
Trades / day0.3pace
Fees−$11est.
Kalshi-fit65%portable
Net worth$58now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$1,043
7 days−$908
14 days−$362
30 days−$614
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 44% −$866
sports 24% +$676
economics 21% −$479
politics 11% −$704
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +38%
net ROI/market (all)-12.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 13 -55.4% -59.7% 23% 15% -40.5%
≤30d 23 +5.5% -4.5% 43% 39% -22.3%
≤90d 23 +5.5% -4.5% 43% 39% -22.3%
all 29 -3.0% -12.2% 45% 38% -28.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.3 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -12.2% 38% -28.8%
10% -20.6% 34% -35.6%
15% -28.3% 31% -41.9%
20% -35.3% 17% -47.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 31% · top 2 47% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -14% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
15% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -3% · $-wt -21% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 60% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +42% → late -45% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
2.3 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$89 vs −$159 · ×0.56 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.46 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

229d coverage
Net worth$58
Realized−$1,358
Unrealized+$2
Win rate (resolved)45%
Wins / losses13 / 16
Whale WR (big bets)60%
Est. fees paid−$11
Open positions2
Markets (closed)29 / 31
History coverage229d
Avg bet$210
Trades / day0.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit65%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 29 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will France reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final? Yes 28¢ 32¢ $28 $32 +$3 (+12%)
Will Spain reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final? Yes 28¢ 26¢ $28 $26 −$2 (-5%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 1 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Türkiye vs. United States end in a draw? Jun 26 $16 +$34 +219%
Exact Score: Türkiye 2 - 2 United States? Jun 26 $2 −$2 -100%
Will England vs. Croatia end in a draw? Jun 24 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? Jun 24 $144 −$144 -100%
Cristiano Ronaldo: 1+ goals Jun 24 $5 −$5 -100%
Will England win on 2026-06-23? Jun 24 $2 −$2 -100%
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: Both Teams to Score Jun 24 $4 −$4 -100%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-18? Jun 24 $4 −$4 -100%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? Jun 24 $900 −$900 -100%
Will Jordan vs. Algeria end in a draw? Jun 24 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? Jun 23 $1,543 +$134 +9%
Will Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire end in a draw? Jun 23 $5 −$5 -100%
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: Both Teams to Score Jun 20 $10 +$5 +52%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $113 +$37 +32%
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $110 +$19 +17%
Sweden vs. Tunisia: Sweden O/U 1.5 Jun 15 $10 +$4 +36%
Will the New York Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals? Jun 14 $971 +$356 +37%
Will Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals 4-1 be the exact series outcome? Jun 14 $17 +$33 +202%
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 14 $102 +$98 +96%
Spurs vs. Knicks Jun 11 $12 +$90 +728%
Spurs vs. Knicks Jun 11 $70 −$70 -100%
Will Trump nominate Kevin Hassett as the next Fed chair? Jun 09 $111 −$111 -100%
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the March 2026 me Jun 09 $160 −$160 -100%
No change in Fed interest rates after January 2026 meeting? Feb 06 $153 +$7 +5%
Fed decreases interest rates by 25 bps after January 2026 meeting? Feb 06 $350 −$350 -100%
Fed decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after January 2026 meeting? Feb 06 $60 −$60 -100%
Will Trump release more Epstein files by December 22? Jan 14 $704 −$704 -100%
Fed decreases interest rates by 25 bps after December 2025 meeting? Dec 18 $501 +$195 +39%
LoL: T1 vs KT Rolster (BO5) Nov 09 $350 +$150 +43%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Türkiye vs. United States end in a draw? SELL Yes 99¢ $35 1h
Will Türkiye vs. United States end in a draw? SELL Yes 61¢ $15 1h
Exact Score: Türkiye 2 - 2 United States? BUY Yes 18¢ $2 2h
Will Türkiye vs. United States end in a draw? BUY Yes 26¢ $16 2h
Will England win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 23¢ $2 2d
Will Jordan vs. Algeria end in a draw? BUY Yes 21¢ $5 3d
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 92¢ $1,543 3d
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 65¢ $10 5d
Will Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire end in a draw? BUY Yes 30¢ $5 5d
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 38¢ $4 7d
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 20¢ $4 7d
Will England vs. Croatia end in a draw? BUY Yes 14¢ $5 8d
Will England vs. Croatia end in a draw? BUY Yes 14¢ $5 8d
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 66¢ $67 8d
Cristiano Ronaldo: 1+ goals BUY Yes 51¢ $5 8d
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 77¢ $78 8d
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 81¢ $81 9d
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 64¢ $32 9d
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 90¢ $900 10d
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 91¢ $100 11d
Sweden vs. Tunisia: Sweden O/U 1.5 BUY Over 73¢ $10 11d
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 51¢ $10 11d
Knicks vs. Spurs BUY Knicks 84¢ $68 12d
Knicks vs. Spurs BUY Knicks 84¢ $6 12d
Knicks vs. Spurs BUY Knicks 84¢ $10 12d
Will the New York Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals? BUY Yes 72¢ $55 12d
Knicks vs. Spurs BUY Knicks 18¢ $18 12d
Will the New York Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals? BUY Yes 74¢ $371 12d
Will Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals 4-1 be the exact series outcome? BUY Yes 32¢ $17 12d
Will the New York Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals? BUY Yes 77¢ $8 12d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $58.00 · official $58.00 (match) · 103 history records