trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?
| timeframe | markets | gross ROI | NET ROI | gross WR | NET WR | net PnL (wtd) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ≤7d | 12 | -1.8% | -11.2% | 58% | 42% | -10.4% |
| ≤30d | 12 | -1.8% | -11.2% | 58% | 42% | -10.4% |
| ≤90d | 12 | -1.8% | -11.2% | 58% | 42% | -10.4% |
| all | 18 | -0.9% | -10.4% | 61% | 28% | -9.2% |
| copier slippage | NET ROI | NET WR | net PnL (wtd) |
|---|---|---|---|
| 5% ideal ← realistic here | -10.4% | 28% | -9.2% |
| 10% | -19.0% | 22% | -17.9% |
| 15% | -26.8% | 0% | -25.8% |
| 20% | -34.0% | 0% | -33.1% |
| Market | outcome | entry | now | invested | value | unrealized PnL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? | Yes | 43¢ | 44¢ | $60 | $62 | +$2 (+3%) |
| US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 30, 2026? | No | 50¢ | 39¢ | $67 | $53 | −$14 (-21%) |
| Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | Yes | 11¢ | 12¢ | $8 | $9 | +$1 (+11%) |
| Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | Yes | 7¢ | 7¢ | $7 | $7 | −$0 (-1%) |
| Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? | No | 15¢ | 14¢ | $6 | $6 | −$0 (-7%) |
| Market | when | invested | PnL | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will "Toy Story 5" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 171m and 184m | Jun 19 | $20 | +$7 | +35% |
| Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? | Jun 18 | $24 | −$1 | -6% |
| Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | Jun 17 | $5 | −$1 | -28% |
| Will Trump physically sign US x Iran deal? | Jun 17 | $15 | +$2 | +16% |
| Will Trump agree to withdraw troops from the Iranian region by June 30 | Jun 17 | $36 | +$10 | +29% |
| EdgeX FDV above $700M one day after launch? | Jun 17 | $34 | −$34 | -100% |
| Will Mexico win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | Jun 17 | $5 | −$1 | -12% |
| Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? | Jun 17 | $16 | −$3 | -20% |
| Will Iran close its airspace by June 30? | Jun 17 | $56 | +$4 | +8% |
| Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 17? | Jun 17 | $21 | +$5 | +26% |
| Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 16? | Jun 17 | $21 | +$6 | +30% |
| Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the June 2026 me | Jun 16 | $179 | $0 | +0% |
| Fed increases interest rates by 25+ bps after December 2025 meeting? | Nov 28 | $200 | $0 | -0% |
| Will the Sacramento Kings win the 2026 NBA Finals? | Nov 28 | $200 | $0 | -0% |
| Fed decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after December 2025 meeting? | Nov 14 | $210 | +$1 | +0% |
| Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from October 31 to November 7, 2025 | Nov 10 | $208 | +$5 | +2% |
| Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from October 21 to October 28, 2025 | Nov 05 | $205 | +$2 | +1% |
| Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2025 NYC mayoral election? | Oct 27 | $406 | +$2 | +0% |