Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T05:16:29+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
13 0x13fe…58de other 11 markets active 1h ago coverage 3d
RISKYcopy with care ⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge
Total PnL +$5 (+2%) realized +$5 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +26% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +9% what you keep after slip
Net edge+9%after slip
Net WR36%break-even
Win rate55%6W / 5L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$27per market
Trades / day4.0pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit18%portable
Net worth$87now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 3d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
other 96% −$9
sports 4% −$2
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +36%
net ROI/market (all)+13.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 11 +25.8% +13.8% 55% 36% -12.8%
≤30d 11 +25.8% +13.8% 55% 36% -12.8%
≤90d 11 +25.8% +13.8% 55% 36% -12.8%
all 11 +25.8% +13.8% 55% 36% -12.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover4.0 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to10%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +13.8% 36% -12.8%
10% +2.9% 27% -21.1%
15% -7.0% 27% -28.7%
20% -16.1% 27% -35.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 44% · top 2 69% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -4% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
33% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +26% · $-wt -4% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$10 vs −$14 · ×0.7 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.85 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

3d coverage
Net worth$87
Realized+$5
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)55%
Wins / losses6 / 5
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions0
Markets (closed)11 / 11
History coverage3d
Avg bet$27
Trades / day4.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit18%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 11 Trades
no open positions (1 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? Jun 18 $81 +$7 +9%
Exact Score: Uzbekistan 1 - 2 Colombia? Jun 18 $21 −$20 -98%
Will England win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $88 +$15 +16%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $34 −$34 -100%
Exact Score: France 3 - 1 Senegal? Jun 16 $30 +$2 +7%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $25 +$26 +104%
Exact Score: France 3 - 0 Senegal? Jun 16 $6 −$6 -100%
Will Justin Gaethje win by KO or TKO? Jun 16 $1 +$6 +593%
Will the fight be won by KO or TKO? Jun 15 $6 +$3 +54%
UFC Freedom 250: Ciryl Gane vs. Alex Pereira (Heavyweight, Main Card) Jun 15 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Alex Pereira win by KO or TKO? Jun 15 $5 −$5 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 92¢ $81 1h
Exact Score: Uzbekistan 1 - 2 Colombia? BUY Yes 40¢ $21 1h
Will England win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 85¢ $88 7h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 64¢ $34 11h
Exact Score: France 3 - 1 Senegal? BUY Yes 93¢ $30 32h
Exact Score: France 3 - 0 Senegal? SELL Yes 0¢ $0 32h
Exact Score: France 3 - 0 Senegal? BUY Yes 20¢ $6 32h
Will France win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 48¢ $25 33h
Will Justin Gaethje win by KO or TKO? BUY Yes 14¢ $1 3d
Will Alex Pereira win by KO or TKO? BUY Yes 43¢ $5 3d
UFC Freedom 250: Ciryl Gane vs. Alex Pereira (Heavyweight, Main Card) BUY Alex Pereira 51¢ $5 3d
Will the fight be won by KO or TKO? BUY Yes 64¢ $6 3d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $87.10 · official $87.10 (match) · 20 history records