Wallet analysis

2026-06-16T09:20:01+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
13 0x13fe…01fa crypto 22 markets active 0h ago coverage 1d
UNRELIABLEdata unreliable crypto specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
✗ only 1d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)! high turnover! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL +$5 (+8%) realized +$5 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -16% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -35% what you keep after slip
Net edge-35%after slip
Net WR43%break-even
Win rate62%13W / 8L
Drawdown50%max
Avg bet$3per market
Trades / day49.0pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit91%portable
Net worth$5now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 1d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 49% −$1
sports 48% +$8
other 3% −$2
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +43%
net ROI/market (all)-23.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 21 -15.5% -23.6% 62% 43% -0.1%
≤30d 21 -15.5% -23.6% 62% 43% -0.1%
≤90d 21 -15.5% -23.6% 62% 43% -0.1%
all 21 -15.5% -23.6% 62% 43% -0.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover49.0 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -23.6% 43% -0.1%
10% ← realistic here -30.9% 19% -9.6%
15% -37.6% 19% -18.4%
20% -43.7% 10% -26.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 63% · top 2 72% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +9% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
23% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -16% · $-wt +9% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -23% → late -9% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.6 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$1 · ×1.04 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×1.69 per $1 lost it wins $1.69
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

1d coverage
Net worth$5
Realized+$5
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)62%
Wins / losses13 / 8
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions1
Markets (closed)21 / 22
History coverage1d
Avg bet$3
Trades / day49.0
Drawdown50%
Kalshi-fit91%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 21 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:15AM-5:20AM ET Down 88¢ 96¢ $5 $5 +$0 (+10%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 5 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:10AM-5:15AM ET Jun 16 $5 +$1 +20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:05AM-5:10AM ET Jun 16 $1 −$1 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:00AM-5:05AM ET Jun 16 $1 $0 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:55AM-5:00AM ET Jun 16 $1 $0 +20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:50AM-4:55AM ET Jun 16 $1 $0 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:45AM-4:50AM ET Jun 16 $1 $0 +13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:40AM-4:45AM ET Jun 16 $1 $0 +36%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:35AM-4:40AM ET Jun 16 $1 −$1 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:30AM-4:35AM ET Jun 16 $1 $0 +42%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:25AM-4:30AM ET Jun 16 $1 +$1 +51%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:20AM-4:25AM ET Jun 16 $1 −$1 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:15AM-4:20AM ET Jun 16 $2 $0 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:10AM-4:15AM ET Jun 16 $1 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:05AM-4:10AM ET Jun 16 $1 $0 +22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:00AM-4:05AM ET Jun 16 $2 −$1 -33%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:50AM-3:55AM ET Jun 16 $1 $0 -14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:45AM-3:50AM ET Jun 16 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Belgium vs. Egypt end in a draw? Jun 16 $20 +$1 +4%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $1 −$1 -90%
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $1 −$1 -95%
Will Spain vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? Jun 15 $9 +$7 +79%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:15AM-5:20AM ET BUY Down 88¢ $5 3m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:15AM-5:20AM ET SELL Down 78¢ $1 4m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:15AM-5:20AM ET BUY Down 75¢ $1 4m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:10AM-5:15AM ET BUY Down 97¢ $2 5m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:10AM-5:15AM ET BUY Down 95¢ $1 6m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:10AM-5:15AM ET BUY Down 93¢ $1 6m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:10AM-5:15AM ET BUY Down 53¢ $1 9m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:05AM-5:10AM ET BUY Up 57¢ $1 14m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:00AM-5:05AM ET SELL Down 96¢ $1 16m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:00AM-5:05AM ET BUY Down 88¢ $1 18m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:55AM-5:00AM ET SELL Down 86¢ $1 22m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:55AM-5:00AM ET BUY Down 69¢ $1 24m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:50AM-4:55AM ET BUY Up 90¢ $1 29m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:45AM-4:50AM ET SELL Down 77¢ $1 33m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:45AM-4:50AM ET BUY Down 65¢ $1 34m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:40AM-4:45AM ET SELL Up 95¢ $1 37m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:40AM-4:45AM ET BUY Up 68¢ $1 39m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:35AM-4:40AM ET BUY Up 64¢ $1 44m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:30AM-4:35AM ET SELL Up 93¢ $1 47m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:30AM-4:35AM ET BUY Up 63¢ $1 48m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:25AM-4:30AM ET SELL Up 94¢ $2 51m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:25AM-4:30AM ET BUY Up 60¢ $1 54m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:20AM-4:25AM ET BUY Down 88¢ $1 57m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:15AM-4:20AM ET BUY Up 96¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:15AM-4:20AM ET SELL Up 75¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:15AM-4:20AM ET BUY Up 58¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:10AM-4:15AM ET BUY Up 99¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:05AM-4:10AM ET SELL Up 72¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:05AM-4:10AM ET BUY Up 56¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:00AM-4:05AM ET BUY Up 32¢ $1 1h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $5.49 · official $4.97 (match) · 56 history records