Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T17:47:20+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.0
score
14 0x1402…4853 crypto 314 markets active 1h ago coverage 282d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$8,542 (-17%) realized −$8,617 · open +$75
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -14% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -22% what you keep after slip
Net edge-22%after slip
Net WR39%break-even
Win rate42%129W / 181L
Whale WR38%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$160per market
Trades / day2.0pace
Fees−$31est.
Kalshi-fit77%portable
Net worth$573now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$662
7 days−$1,785
14 days−$1,785
30 days−$1,588
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 43% −$3,825
crypto 39% −$1,538
sports 17% −$3,835
world 1% +$536
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +39%
net ROI/market (all)-21.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 25 -41.6% -47.2% 8% 8% -43.8%
≤30d 34 -27.7% -34.6% 15% 15% -33.1%
≤90d 104 -32.4% -38.9% 28% 25% -34.3%
all 310 -13.7% -21.9% 42% 39% -25.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.0 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -21.9% 39% -25.6%
10% -29.4% 38% -32.7%
15% -36.2% 37% -39.2%
20% -42.4% 30% -45.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 12% · top 2 19% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -28% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
5% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -14% · $-wt -18% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 38% (≥$500) big bets weaker
Persistence
early -1% → late -26% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$106 vs −$124 · ×0.86 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.61 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

282d coverage
Net worth$573
Realized−$8,617
Unrealized+$75
Win rate (resolved)42%
Wins / losses129 / 181
Whale WR (big bets)38%
Est. fees paid−$31
Open positions4
Markets (closed)310 / 314
History coverage282d
Avg bet$160
Trades / day2.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit77%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 4 History 310 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 18¢ 18¢ $200 $204 +$4 (+2%)
Exact Score: Portugal 2 - 0 DR Congo? Yes 17¢ 23¢ $110 $149 +$39 (+35%)
Exact Score: Portugal 3 - 0 DR Congo? Yes 13¢ 20¢ $88 $136 +$48 (+54%)
Will Kylian Mbappe be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 30¢ 26¢ $100 $85 −$15 (-15%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 46 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:15PM-6:20PM ET Jun 16 $5 −$5 -96%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $305 +$320 +105%
Exact Score: France 3 - 1 Senegal? Jun 16 $154 +$1,582 +1027%
Exact Score: France 2 - 0 Senegal? Jun 16 $170 −$166 -98%
Exact Score: France 3 - 0 Senegal? Jun 16 $308 −$300 -97%
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 16 $612 −$86 -14%
Exact Score: Saudi Arabia 0 - 1 Uruguay? Jun 15 $126 −$123 -98%
Exact Score: Saudi Arabia 0 - 2 Uruguay? Jun 15 $267 −$260 -98%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $103 −$100 -97%
Exact Score: Belgium 2 - 0 Egypt? Jun 15 $205 −$200 -98%
Exact Score: Spain 2 - 0 Cabo Verde? Jun 15 $143 −$140 -98%
Exact Score: Spain 3 - 0 Cabo Verde? Jun 15 $142 −$139 -98%
Exact Score: Any Other Score? Jun 15 $93 −$54 -57%
Exact Score: Netherlands 2 - 1 Japan? Jun 14 $286 −$279 -98%
Exact Score: Netherlands 2 - 0 Japan? Jun 14 $247 −$240 -97%
Exact Score: Netherlands 3 - 0 Japan? Jun 14 $76 −$74 -97%
Exact Score: Brazil 2 - 0 Morocco? Jun 13 $462 −$450 -98%
Exact Score: Brazil 2 - 1 Morocco? Jun 13 $257 −$250 -97%
Exact Score: Qatar 0 - 3 Switzerland? Jun 13 $267 −$260 -98%
Exact Score: Qatar 0 - 2 Switzerland? Jun 13 $133 −$130 -98%
Exact Score: Canada 3 - 0 Bosnia-Herzegovina? Jun 12 $40 −$40 -100%
Exact Score: Canada 2 - 0 Bosnia-Herzegovina? Jun 12 $82 −$82 -100%
Exact Score: United States 2 - 0 Paraguay? Jun 12 $103 −$100 -97%
Exact Score: United States 2 - 1 Paraguay? Jun 12 $133 −$130 -97%
Exact Score: Canada 2 - 1 Bosnia-Herzegovina? Jun 12 $82 −$80 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 6:00AM-6:05AM ET Jun 02 $5 +$1 +28%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 4:15AM-4:20AM ET Jun 01 $412 +$296 +72%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 4:10AM-4:15AM ET Jun 01 $231 −$25 -11%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 4:05AM-4:10AM ET Jun 01 $204 −$202 -99%
Exact Score: Paris Saint-Germain FC 1 - 1 Arsenal FC? Jun 01 $123 +$734 +596%
Exact Score: Paris Saint-Germain FC 2 - 1 Arsenal FC? May 30 $316 −$308 -97%
Exact Score: Paris Saint-Germain FC 2 - 0 Arsenal FC? May 30 $144 −$140 -97%
Exact Score: Paris Saint-Germain FC 3 - 2 Arsenal FC? May 30 $31 −$30 -97%
Exact Score: Paris Saint-Germain FC 2 - 2 Arsenal FC? May 30 $134 −$130 -97%
Exact Score: FC Bayern München 3 - 2 Paris Saint-Germain FC? May 06 $103 −$100 -97%
Exact Score: FC Bayern München 3 - 1 Paris Saint-Germain FC? May 06 $205 −$200 -97%
Exact Score: FC Bayern München 2 - 1 Paris Saint-Germain FC? May 06 $154 −$150 -97%
CA Osasuna vs. FC Barcelona: O/U 1.5 May 02 $10 −$2 -15%
Will Club Atlético de Madrid win on 2026-04-29? Apr 29 $491 −$480 -98%
Will FC Bayern München win on 2026-04-28? Apr 28 $598 −$587 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 10, 4:30AM-4:35AM ET Apr 10 $39 −$38 -96%
Exact Score: FC Barcelona 1 - 1 Club Atlético de Madrid? Apr 08 $40 −$39 -97%
Exact Score: FC Barcelona 2 - 2 Club Atlético de Madrid? Apr 08 $40 −$39 -97%
Exact Score: FC Barcelona 2 - 1 Club Atlético de Madrid? Apr 08 $30 −$29 -97%
Will Real Madrid CF vs. FC Bayern München end in a draw? Apr 07 $300 −$294 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 4, 5:10PM-5:15PM ET Apr 04 $1,101 +$44 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 4, 5:05PM-5:10PM ET Apr 04 $300 −$292 -97%
Exact Score: Club Atlético de Madrid 1 - 2 FC Barcelona? Apr 04 $30 +$109 +362%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 4, 4:55PM-5:00PM ET Apr 04 $400 +$114 +28%
Will Club Atlético de Madrid vs. FC Barcelona end in a draw? Apr 04 $562 −$56 -10%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Exact Score: Portugal 3 - 0 DR Congo? BUY Yes 13¢ $91 1h
Exact Score: Portugal 2 - 0 DR Congo? BUY Yes 17¢ $113 1h
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 18¢ $102 19h
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 18¢ $102 19h
Will Kylian Mbappe be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 30¢ $102 19h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:15PM-6:20PM ET BUY Down 40¢ $5 19h
Will France win on 2026-06-16? SELL Yes 100¢ $624 20h
Exact Score: France 3 - 1 Senegal? SELL Yes 95¢ $1,736 20h
Will France win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 48¢ $305 21h
Exact Score: France 3 - 1 Senegal? BUY Yes 9¢ $31 23h
Exact Score: France 2 - 0 Senegal? BUY Yes 13¢ $41 23h
Exact Score: France 2 - 0 Senegal? BUY Yes 13¢ $129 24h
Exact Score: France 3 - 0 Senegal? BUY Yes 9¢ $103 24h
Exact Score: France 3 - 1 Senegal? BUY Yes 8¢ $123 28h
Exact Score: France 3 - 0 Senegal? BUY Yes 9¢ $205 28h
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 14¢ $332 28h
Exact Score: Saudi Arabia 0 - 1 Uruguay? BUY Yes 17¢ $126 44h
Exact Score: Saudi Arabia 0 - 2 Uruguay? BUY Yes 16¢ $174 44h
Exact Score: Saudi Arabia 0 - 2 Uruguay? BUY Yes 16¢ $92 44h
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 10¢ $103 44h
Exact Score: Belgium 2 - 0 Egypt? BUY Yes 17¢ $205 46h
Exact Score: Spain 2 - 0 Cabo Verde? BUY Yes 21¢ $143 2d
Exact Score: Spain 3 - 0 Cabo Verde? BUY Yes 17¢ $102 2d
Exact Score: Spain 3 - 0 Cabo Verde? BUY Yes 18¢ $40 2d
Exact Score: Any Other Score? SELL Yes 20¢ $40 2d
Exact Score: Any Other Score? BUY Yes 45¢ $93 2d
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 16¢ $410 2d
Exact Score: Netherlands 2 - 1 Japan? BUY Yes 13¢ $30 3d
Exact Score: Netherlands 2 - 0 Japan? BUY Yes 10¢ $41 3d
Exact Score: Netherlands 3 - 0 Japan? BUY Yes 4¢ $31 3d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $573.46 · official $573.46 (match) · 770 history records