Wallet analysis

2026-06-28T16:02:45+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
14 0x1403…6c62 sports 55 markets active 2h ago coverage 105d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$443 (-14%) realized −$502 · open +$59
Gross ROI / mkt -32% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -39% what you keep after slip
Net edge-39%after slip
Net WR17%break-even
Win rate56%30W / 24L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$56per market
Trades / day0.6pace
Fees−$12est.
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$95now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$5
7 days+$9
14 days−$31
30 days−$99
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 93% −$460
crypto 7% +$76
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +17%
net ROI/market (all)-38.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 2 +4.7% -5.3% 100% 0% -5.2%
≤30d 15 -36.9% -42.9% 60% 0% -20.9%
≤90d 38 -33.0% -39.4% 61% 5% -17.7%
all 54 -32.1% -38.6% 56% 17% -22.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.6 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -38.6% 17% -22.7%
10% -44.5% 13% -30.1%
15% -49.8% 11% -36.8%
20% -54.8% 9% -43.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 25% · top 2 44% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -9% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
70% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -32% · $-wt -14% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -31% → late -33% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$14 vs −$36 · ×0.4 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.49 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

105d coverage
Net worth$95
Realized−$502
Unrealized+$59
Win rate (resolved)56%
Wins / losses30 / 24
Est. fees paid−$12
Open positions1
Markets (closed)54 / 55
History coverage105d
Avg bet$56
Trades / day0.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 54 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
WTT - Women's Singles: Yingsha Sun vs Yangzi Liu Liu 11¢ $36 $95 +$59 (+164%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 24 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
MLP New York: Carolina Hogs vs Brooklyn Pickleball Team Jun 27 $97 +$5 +5%
ITF Rzeszow: Alan Wazny vs Oliwier Sterniczuk Jun 25 $93 +$4 +4%
Nottingham Open (Doubles): Sutjiadi/Tjen vs Maleckova/Skoch Jun 18 $22 −$22 -97%
Overwatch: VARREL vs Lazuli (BO3) - OCS Japan Stage 2 Group Stage Jun 16 $9 −$9 -97%
Overwatch: Twisted Minds vs Telacy (BO3) - OCS EMEA Stage 2 Group Stag Jun 14 $10 −$10 -97%
MLP Austin: New Jersey 5s vs Atlanta Bouncers Jun 13 $35 +$1 +4%
Overwatch: Please Not Hero Ban vs 99DIVINE (BO3) - OCS Japan Stage 2 G Jun 08 $33 +$2 +5%
WTT - Men's Singles: Kanak Jha vs Darko Jorgic Jun 07 $72 −$72 -100%
WTT - Men's Singles: Anton Kaellberg vs Darko Jorgic Jun 06 $74 +$3 +4%
Rainbow Six Siege: Leviatán Esports vs One Coin (BO3) - CN League Stag Jun 06 $8 −$8 -97%
Roland Garros Juniors, Girls (Doubles): Sun/Zhang vs Dorofeeva-Rybas/P Jun 04 $13 −$13 -97%
Roland Garros Juniors, Boys (Doubles): Miguel/Sesko vs Pantaratorn/Pap Jun 03 $91 +$4 +4%
Dota 2: Estar Backs vs TeamDk (BO3) - Esports World Cup South America Jun 02 $73 +$7 +10%
MLP Columbus: Las Vegas Night Owls vs Atlanta Bouncers Jun 01 $82 +$4 +5%
MLP Columbus: Columbus Sliders vs New Jersey 5s May 31 $81 +$3 +4%
ITF Oliva: Elena Molla Pons vs Carolina Kuhl May 27 $69 +$3 +4%
ITF Kutaisi: Matisse Bobichon vs Raghav Jaisinghani May 25 $7 −$7 -97%
WTT - Women's Singles: Hitomi Sato vs Diya Parag Chitale May 23 $76 +$4 +5%
Counter-Strike: SHISHKA vs CSGOPOSITIVE (BO3) - Exort Series Contender May 22 $99 +$4 +4%
WTT - Women's Singles: Hitomi Sato vs Fatimo Bello May 22 $95 +$4 +4%
LoL: Barcząca Esports vs devils.one (BO3) - Rift Legends Regular Seaso May 21 $91 +$4 +4%
LoL: TITANS vs Aeterna Esports (BO5) - LIT Playoffs Apr 30 $19 −$19 -97%
LoL: DN SOOPers Challengers vs Gen.G Global Academy (BO3) - LCK Challe Apr 27 $17 +$2 +14%
Counter-Strike: STATE vs Sashi Academy (BO3) - Gamebox Festival Playof Apr 27 $15 +$1 +8%
Counter-Strike: METANOIA WOLVES vs Vasco Esports (BO3) - BetBoom RUSH Apr 25 $29 −$28 -98%
Counter-Strike: Sharks vs BIG (BO3) - CCT Global Finals Playoffs Apr 25 $24 −$23 -97%
LoL: Colossal Gaming vs EKO Esports (BO5) - LIT Playoffs Apr 25 $63 +$4 +6%
LoL: Hanwha Life Esports Challengers vs Dplus KIA Challengers (BO3) - Apr 23 $59 +$4 +6%
Valorant: eSports Cologne vs Eintracht Frankfurt (BO3) - VCL DACH: Evo Apr 21 $16 −$16 -97%
Shymkent: Ergi Kirkin vs Gilles Arnaud Bailly Apr 21 $132 −$129 -98%
Dota 2: Team Yandex vs Natus Vincere (BO3) - PGL Wallachia Group Stage Apr 21 $148 +$15 +10%
LoL: Team Vitality vs GIANTX (BO3) - LEC Regular Season Apr 19 $17 −$16 -97%
LoL: ROSSMANN Centaurs vs Team Orange Gaming (BO1) - Prime League 1st Apr 17 $147 +$6 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 8, 10AM ET Apr 09 $95 +$108 +113%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 31, 8:00AM-12:00PM ET Mar 31 $7 −$7 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - March 31, 4:00AM-8:00AM ET Mar 31 $96 +$6 +6%
XRP Up or Down - March 30, 8:00PM-12:00AM ET Mar 31 $31 −$31 -100%
Counter-Strike: Monte vs HAVU (BO3) - DraculaN Playoffs Mar 31 $86 +$9 +10%
Counter-Strike: STATE vs OlyBet SB (BO3) - European Pro League Series Mar 30 $73 +$46 +63%
Honor of Kings: Hong Kong Attitude vs Flash Wolves (BO5) - Garena Chal Mar 29 $36 +$36 +100%
Counter-Strike: BOSS vs Wanted Goons (BO3) - Fragadelphia York Playoff Mar 29 $25 −$25 -100%
Counter-Strike: Heroic vs CYBERSHOKE Esports (BO1) - Roman Imperium Cu Mar 28 $132 −$132 -100%
Honor of Kings: BOX Gaming vs Saigon Phantom (BO5) - Arena of Glory Gr Mar 28 $77 +$80 +104%
Mobile Legends Bang Bang: Team Falcons PH vs Team Liquid PH (BO3) - MP Mar 28 $32 +$18 +54%
KHL: Severstal Cherepovets vs. Torpedo Mar 23 $24 −$24 -100%
Overwatch: Please Not Hero Ban vs Lazuli (BO3) - OCS Japan Stage 1 Reg Mar 23 $86 −$86 -100%
Dota 2: AVULUS vs VP.Prodigy (BO3) - PREMIER SERIES Play-In Group A Mar 19 $28 −$28 -100%
Raptors vs. Bulls Mar 19 $24 +$4 +16%
Counter-Strike: Alliance vs Favbet (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #18 Playo Mar 18 $78 −$78 -100%
Dota 2: Yangon Galacticos vs Cloud Dawning (BO3) - EPL World Series So Mar 18 $78 +$24 +32%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
WTT - Women's Singles: Yingsha Sun vs Yangzi Liu BUY Liu $37 1h
MLP New York: Carolina Hogs vs Brooklyn Pickleball Team BUY Brooklyn Pickleball Team 95¢ $97 2d
ITF Rzeszow: Alan Wazny vs Oliwier Sterniczuk BUY Alan Wazny 96¢ $93 3d
Nottingham Open (Doubles): Sutjiadi/Tjen vs Maleckova/Skoch BUY Maleckova/Skoch $22 10d
Overwatch: VARREL vs Lazuli (BO3) - OCS Japan Stage 2 Group Stage BUY Lazuli $9 12d
Overwatch: Twisted Minds vs Telacy (BO3) - OCS EMEA Stage 2 Group Stag BUY Telacy $10 13d
MLP Austin: New Jersey 5s vs Atlanta Bouncers BUY New Jersey 5s 96¢ $35 15d
Overwatch: Please Not Hero Ban vs 99DIVINE (BO3) - OCS Japan Stage 2 G BUY Please Not Hero Ban 95¢ $33 20d
WTT - Men's Singles: Kanak Jha vs Darko Jorgic BUY Jha 95¢ $72 21d
WTT - Men's Singles: Anton Kaellberg vs Darko Jorgic BUY Jorgic 96¢ $74 21d
Rainbow Six Siege: Leviatán Esports vs One Coin (BO3) - CN League Stag BUY One Coin $8 22d
Roland Garros Juniors, Girls (Doubles): Sun/Zhang vs Dorofeeva-Rybas/P BUY Dorofeeva-Rybas/Pushkareva $13 24d
Roland Garros Juniors, Boys (Doubles): Miguel/Sesko vs Pantaratorn/Pap BUY Miguel/Sesko 96¢ $91 26d
Dota 2: Estar Backs vs TeamDk (BO3) - Esports World Cup South America BUY Estar Backs 91¢ $73 26d
MLP Columbus: Las Vegas Night Owls vs Atlanta Bouncers BUY Las Vegas Night Owls 95¢ $82 28d
MLP Columbus: Columbus Sliders vs New Jersey 5s BUY New Jersey 5s 96¢ $81 28d
ITF Oliva: Elena Molla Pons vs Carolina Kuhl BUY Carolina Kuhl 96¢ $69 32d
ITF Kutaisi: Matisse Bobichon vs Raghav Jaisinghani BUY Raghav Jaisinghani $7 34d
WTT - Women's Singles: Hitomi Sato vs Diya Parag Chitale BUY Sato 95¢ $76 36d
Counter-Strike: SHISHKA vs CSGOPOSITIVE (BO3) - Exort Series Contender BUY SHISHKA 96¢ $99 36d
WTT - Women's Singles: Hitomi Sato vs Fatimo Bello BUY Sato 96¢ $95 37d
LoL: Barcząca Esports vs devils.one (BO3) - Rift Legends Regular Seaso BUY Barcząca Esports 96¢ $14 37d
LoL: Barcząca Esports vs devils.one (BO3) - Rift Legends Regular Seaso BUY Barcząca Esports 96¢ $38 37d
LoL: Barcząca Esports vs devils.one (BO3) - Rift Legends Regular Seaso BUY Barcząca Esports 96¢ $38 37d
LoL: TITANS vs Aeterna Esports (BO5) - LIT Playoffs BUY TITANS 10¢ $19 58d
LoL: DN SOOPers Challengers vs Gen.G Global Academy (BO3) - LCK Challe BUY DN SOOPers Challengers 88¢ $17 62d
Counter-Strike: STATE vs Sashi Academy (BO3) - Gamebox Festival Playof BUY STATE 93¢ $15 63d
Counter-Strike: METANOIA WOLVES vs Vasco Esports (BO3) - BetBoom RUSH BUY METANOIA WOLVES $4 63d
Counter-Strike: METANOIA WOLVES vs Vasco Esports (BO3) - BetBoom RUSH BUY METANOIA WOLVES $0 63d
Counter-Strike: METANOIA WOLVES vs Vasco Esports (BO3) - BetBoom RUSH BUY METANOIA WOLVES $24 63d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $94.63 · official $94.63 (match) · 98 history records