Wallet analysis

2026-06-25T20:16:08+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
14 0x1405…9882 sports 76 markets active 0h ago coverage 2d
BOTnot copyable sports specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover
✗ bot/MM pace (545 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ only 2d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$566 (-10%) realized −$517 · open −$49
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -10% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -30% what you keep after slip
Net edge-30%after slip
Net WR43%break-even
Win rate44%24W / 30L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$76per market
Trades / day544.9pace
Fees−$69est.
Kalshi-fit93%portable
Net worth$1,521now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 2d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 85% −$708
other 15% +$8
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (545 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +43%
net ROI/market (all)-18.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 54 -9.8% -18.4% 44% 43% -23.6%
≤30d 54 -9.8% -18.4% 44% 43% -23.6%
≤90d 54 -9.8% -18.4% 44% 43% -23.6%
all 54 -9.8% -18.4% 44% 43% -23.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover544.9 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -18.4% 43% -23.6%
10% ← realistic here -26.2% 41% -30.9%
15% -33.3% 35% -37.5%
20% -39.9% 33% -43.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 15% · top 2 29% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -16% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
4% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -10% · $-wt -16% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +30% → late -50% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
12.0 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$63 vs −$72 · ×0.87 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.7 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

2d coverage
Net worth$1,521
Realized−$517
Unrealized−$49
Win rate (resolved)44%
Wins / losses24 / 30
Est. fees paid−$69
Open positions22
Markets (closed)54 / 76
History coverage2d
Avg bet$76
Trades / day544.9
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit93%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 22 History 54 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Counter-Strike: Clutchain Female vs MIBR fe (BO3) - Rainhas do Clutch FERJEE Playoffs Clutchain Female 67¢ 66¢ $213 $210 −$4 (-2%)
Will Germany win on 2026-06-25? No 39¢ 44¢ $176 $202 +$27 (+15%)
Philadelphia Phillies vs. Washington Nationals Philadelphia Phillies 60¢ 62¢ $194 $198 +$5 (+2%)
Will Belgium win Group G in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 30¢ 31¢ $175 $178 +$4 (+2%)
Chicago Cubs vs. New York Mets Chicago Cubs 51¢ 50¢ $179 $177 −$2 (-1%)
Will Japan win on 2026-06-25? Yes 48¢ 48¢ $174 $174 −$1 (-1%)
Houston Astros vs. Detroit Tigers Houston Astros 49¢ 48¢ $118 $117 −$1 (-1%)
Athletics vs. San Francisco Giants: O/U 8.5 Under 48¢ 66¢ $47 $65 +$18 (+37%)
Counter-Strike: Entropy vs Donstu Esports (BO3) - European Pro League Series 8 Closed Qualifier Group C Donstu Esports 72¢ 71¢ $54 $53 −$1 (-2%)
Counter-Strike: Sashi Esport vs Inner Circle Esports (BO3) - Super DraculaN Group A Inner Circle Esports 63¢ 66¢ $48 $49 +$2 (+4%)
Map Handicap: ISG (-1.5) vs Vasco Esports (+1.5) Isurus 45¢ 50¢ $20 $22 +$2 (+10%)
Counter-Strike: Yawara Esports vs Game Hunters (BO3) - Thunderpick World Championship South American Series #1 Group B Game Hunters 33¢ 30¢ $18 $16 −$1 (-7%)
Map Handicap: YAW (-1.5) vs Game Hunters (+1.5) Game Hunters 59¢ 58¢ $14 $14 −$0 (-2%)
Counter-Strike: Vasco Esports vs Isurus - Map 2 Winner Isurus 64¢ 50¢ $14 $11 −$3 (-21%)
Counter-Strike: The Huns Esports vs CYBERSHOKE Prospects (BO3) - LG UltraGear Tournament Playoffs CYBERSHOKE Prospects 62¢ 48¢ $11 $9 −$3 (-23%)
Counter-Strike: Entropy vs Donstu Esports - Map 1 Winner Donstu Esports 67¢ 50¢ $11 $8 −$3 (-25%)
Counter-Strike: PCIFIC vs Rune Eaters (BO3) - LG UltraGear Tournament Playoffs Rune Eaters 62¢ 57¢ $8 $7 −$1 (-8%)
Counter-Strike: Infinite vs Betclic Apogee Esports (BO3) - Super DraculaN Group B Infinite 54¢ 84¢ $3 $5 +$2 (+56%)
Map 1 Rounds Handicap: Isurus (-3.5) vs Vasco Esports (+3.5) Isurus 47¢ 50¢ $3 $3 +$0 (+6%)
Games Total: O/U 2.5 Under 57¢ 50¢ $3 $2 −$0 (-12%)
Counter-Strike: Acend vs Sharks (BO3) - Super DraculaN Group A Acend 40¢ 0¢ $88 $0 −$88 (-100%)
Games Total: O/U 2.5 Under 47¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Map Handicap: WAL (-1.5) vs ECHO (+1.5) Jun 25 $7 −$7 -100%
Counter-Strike: ECHO vs Walczaki (BO3) - Super DraculaN Group B Jun 25 $91 −$91 -100%
Counter-Strike: Keyd vs UNO MILLE (BO3) - Thunderpick World Championsh Jun 25 $237 −$237 -100%
Counter-Strike: Inner Circle Esports vs 9INE (BO3) - Super DraculaN Gr Jun 25 $119 −$119 -100%
Counter-Strike: largadosypelados vs MIBR Academy - Map 1 Winner Jun 25 $59 −$59 -100%
Wimbledon, Qualification WTA: Katie Volynets vs Leolia Jeanjean Jun 25 $226 −$226 -100%
Counter-Strike: largadosypelados vs MIBR Academy (BO3) - Thunderpick W Jun 25 $218 +$76 +35%
Counter-Strike: largadosypelados vs MIBR Academy - Map 2 Winner Jun 25 $10 +$3 +35%
Map Handicap: ICE (-1.5) vs 9INE (+1.5) Jun 25 $18 +$9 +50%
Counter-Strike: Sashi Esport vs AM Gaming (BO3) - Super DraculaN Group Jun 25 $63 −$63 -100%
Map Handicap: FOKUS (-1.5) vs Infinite (+1.5) Jun 25 $16 −$16 -100%
Counter-Strike: Infinite vs FOKUS (BO3) - Super DraculaN Group B Jun 25 $26 −$26 -100%
Counter-Strike: ENJOY vs Julie&cie (BO3) - European Pro League Series Jun 25 $1 −$1 -100%
Map Handicap: ENJOY (-1.5) vs Julie&cie (+1.5) Jun 25 $2 −$2 -100%
Map Handicap: SASHI (-1.5) vs AM Gaming (+1.5) Jun 25 $12 +$5 +41%
Counter-Strike: Team Novaq vs Rune Eaters (BO3) - LG UltraGear Tournam Jun 25 $268 −$268 -100%
Games Total: O/U 2.5 Jun 25 $8 +$9 +105%
Atlanta Braves vs. San Diego Padres Jun 25 $28 +$32 +114%
Map Handicap: UNO (-1.5) vs Game Hunters (+1.5) Jun 25 $19 −$19 -100%
Counter-Strike: UNO MILLE vs Game Hunters (BO3) - Thunderpick World Ch Jun 25 $20 −$20 -100%
Seattle Mariners vs. Pittsburgh Pirates Jun 25 $124 −$124 -100%
Kansas City Royals vs. Tampa Bay Rays Jun 25 $134 −$134 -100%
Map 1 Rounds Handicap: UNO MILLE (-3.5) vs Game Hunters (+3.5) Jun 25 $14 −$14 -100%
Counter-Strike: Betclic Apogee Esports vs OG (BO3) - Super DraculaN Gr Jun 25 $21 +$17 +82%
Scotland vs. Brazil: O/U 2.5 Jun 25 $197 −$197 -100%
Morocco vs. Haiti: Morocco O/U 6.5 Corners Jun 25 $236 +$213 +90%
Baltimore Orioles vs. Los Angeles Angels Jun 24 $95 −$95 -100%
Will Haiti win on 2026-06-24? Jun 24 $261 −$27 -10%
Games Total: O/U 2.5 Jun 24 $4 −$4 -100%
Boston Red Sox vs. Colorado Rockies Jun 24 $253 +$189 +74%
Map 1 Rounds Handicap: GamerLegion (-3.5) vs 9INE (+3.5) Jun 24 $11 +$8 +75%
Switzerland vs. Canada: Canada O/U 4.5 Corners Jun 24 $111 −$111 -100%
Counter-Strike: Keyd vs Yawara Esports - Map 2 Winner Jun 24 $5 +$5 +93%
Counter-Strike: Keyd vs Yawara Esports (BO3) - Thunderpick World Champ Jun 24 $224 +$220 +98%
Counter-Strike: 9INE vs GamerLegion (BO3) - Super DraculaN Group A Jun 24 $74 +$214 +287%
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: England vs West Indies Jun 24 $18 +$3 +17%
Map Handicap: YAW (-1.5) vs Keyd (+1.5) Jun 24 $16 +$5 +31%
Map Handicap: ICE (-1.5) vs Sharks (+1.5) Jun 24 $8 −$8 -100%
Counter-Strike: Inner Circle Esports vs Sharks (BO3) - Super DraculaN Jun 24 $209 −$209 -100%
Map Handicap: GL (-1.5) vs 9INE (+1.5) Jun 24 $167 +$149 +89%
Map Handicap: LDP (-1.5) vs Vasco Esports (+1.5) Jun 24 $16 −$4 -28%
Games Total: O/U 2.5 Jun 24 $22 −$6 -29%
Counter-Strike: Isurus vs MIBR Academy (BO3) - Thunderpick World Champ Jun 24 $49 +$70 +144%
Games Total: O/U 2.5 Jun 24 $3 +$2 +93%
Counter-Strike: ECHO vs FOKUS (BO3) - Super DraculaN Group B Jun 24 $4 +$7 +167%
Map Handicap: ISG (-1.5) vs MIBR Academy (+1.5) Jun 24 $63 +$33 +52%
Counter-Strike: Sashi Esport vs Acend (BO3) - Super DraculaN Group A Jun 24 $13 −$13 -100%
Map 2 Rounds Handicap: Eternal Fire (-3.5) vs AM Gaming (+3.5) Jun 24 $23 −$23 -100%
Counter-Strike: largadosypelados vs Vasco Esports - Map 2 Winner Jun 24 $16 −$6 -35%
Counter-Strike: largadosypelados vs Vasco Esports (BO3) - Thunderpick Jun 24 $75 −$24 -32%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Houston Astros vs. Detroit Tigers BUY Houston Astros 49¢ $3 0m
Counter-Strike: Yawara Esports vs Game Hunters (BO3) - Thunderpick Wor BUY Game Hunters 33¢ $2 1m
Counter-Strike: PCIFIC vs Rune Eaters (BO3) - LG UltraGear Tournament BUY Rune Eaters 62¢ $8 2m
Counter-Strike: The Huns Esports vs CYBERSHOKE Prospects (BO3) - LG Ul BUY CYBERSHOKE Prospects 62¢ $11 2m
Counter-Strike: Entropy vs Donstu Esports (BO3) - European Pro League BUY Donstu Esports 73¢ $10 2m
Counter-Strike: Entropy vs Donstu Esports - Map 1 Winner BUY Donstu Esports 67¢ $4 2m
Houston Astros vs. Detroit Tigers BUY Houston Astros 49¢ $3 2m
Houston Astros vs. Detroit Tigers BUY Houston Astros 49¢ $3 4m
Houston Astros vs. Detroit Tigers BUY Houston Astros 49¢ $3 6m
Houston Astros vs. Detroit Tigers BUY Houston Astros 49¢ $3 8m
Houston Astros vs. Detroit Tigers BUY Houston Astros 49¢ $3 10m
Houston Astros vs. Detroit Tigers BUY Houston Astros 49¢ $3 12m
Houston Astros vs. Detroit Tigers BUY Houston Astros 49¢ $3 12m
Houston Astros vs. Detroit Tigers BUY Houston Astros 49¢ $5 12m
Houston Astros vs. Detroit Tigers BUY Houston Astros 49¢ $3 12m
Houston Astros vs. Detroit Tigers BUY Houston Astros 49¢ $3 14m
Map Handicap: YAW (-1.5) vs Game Hunters (+1.5) BUY Game Hunters 61¢ $3 16m
Counter-Strike: Entropy vs Donstu Esports (BO3) - European Pro League BUY Donstu Esports 73¢ $4 16m
Houston Astros vs. Detroit Tigers BUY Houston Astros 49¢ $3 16m
Houston Astros vs. Detroit Tigers BUY Houston Astros 49¢ $3 17m
Houston Astros vs. Detroit Tigers BUY Houston Astros 49¢ $3 19m
Houston Astros vs. Detroit Tigers BUY Houston Astros 49¢ $3 21m
Houston Astros vs. Detroit Tigers BUY Houston Astros 49¢ $3 23m
Houston Astros vs. Detroit Tigers BUY Houston Astros 49¢ $3 25m
Houston Astros vs. Detroit Tigers BUY Houston Astros 49¢ $3 27m
Houston Astros vs. Detroit Tigers BUY Houston Astros 49¢ $3 30m
Houston Astros vs. Detroit Tigers BUY Houston Astros 49¢ $3 31m
Houston Astros vs. Detroit Tigers BUY Houston Astros 49¢ $3 33m
Houston Astros vs. Detroit Tigers BUY Houston Astros 49¢ $3 35m
Houston Astros vs. Detroit Tigers BUY Houston Astros 49¢ $3 41m
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1,520.62 · official $1,520.62 (match) · 974 history records