Wallet analysis

2026-06-24T01:43:00+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
14 0x1405…64bd other 76 markets active 22h ago coverage 558d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL +$114 (+1%) realized +$114 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +8% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -3% what you keep after slip
Net edge-3%after slip
Net WR15%break-even
Win rate26%19W / 55L
Drawdown20%max
Avg bet$285per market
Trades / day0.4pace
Fees−$2est.
Kalshi-fit71%portable
Net worth$165now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$0
7 days−$6
14 days−$6
30 days−$6
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
economics 65% −$14
politics 15% −$7
other 14% +$15
crypto 3% +$1
sports 1% +$119
world 1% $0
culture 1% $0
tech 1% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +15%
net ROI/market (all)-2.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 5 -20.1% -27.7% 0% 0% -11.0%
≤30d 19 -5.4% -14.4% 11% 0% -10.2%
≤90d 63 +7.5% -2.8% 24% 16% -7.8%
all 74 +7.6% -2.7% 26% 15% -9.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.4 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -2.7% 15% -9.0%
10% -12.0% 15% -17.7%
15% -20.5% 14% -25.7%
20% -28.3% 14% -33.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 33% · top 2 48% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
42% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +8% · $-wt +0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +17% → late -2% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.6 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$11 vs −$2 · ×6.56 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×2.27 per $1 lost it wins $2.27
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

558d coverage
Net worth$165
Realized+$114
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)26%
Wins / losses19 / 55
Est. fees paid−$2
Open positions2
Markets (closed)74 / 76
History coverage558d
Avg bet$285
Trades / day0.4
Drawdown20%
Kalshi-fit71%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 74 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Solana reach $130 in June? No 100¢ 100¢ $112 $112 +$0 (+0%)
Will Egypt win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 100¢ 100¢ $54 $54 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will François Ruffin win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 23 $40 $0 -0%
Will Manuel Bompard win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 19 $39 $0 -0%
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? Jun 19 $5 −$5 -100%
Will François Asselineau win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 18 $221 $0 -0%
Will Valtteri Bottas be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 17 $37 $0 -0%
Will Marine Tondelier win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 16 $23 $0 -0%
Will Beto O’Rourke win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 12 $27 $0 -0%
Will Mathilde Panot win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 11 $35 $0 -0%
Will Erika Kirk win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 10 $23 $0 -0%
Will Carole Delga win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 09 $26 $0 -0%
Will Jasmine Crockett win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 05 $23 $0 -0%
Will Israel Katz be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 04 $24 $0 -0%
Will Oprah Winfrey win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 03 $31 $0 -0%
Will Michel Barnier win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 02 $33 $0 -0%
Will Ethereum reach $3,000 in May? Jun 02 $50 $0 +0%
Will XRP dip to $0.80 in May? Jun 02 $87 $0 +0%
Will BetBoom win IEM Cologne Major 2026? May 31 $26 $0 -0%
Will Liam Lawson be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 30 $27 $0 -0%
Will Betty Yee win the California Governor Election in 2026? May 29 $25 $0 -0%
Will Arvid Lindblad be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 24 $39 $0 -0%
Will Williams be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? May 23 $35 $0 -0%
Will Benjamin Netanyahu win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? May 22 $30 $0 -0%
Will Gabriel Bortoleto be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 18 $367 $0 -0%
Philadelphia Phillies vs. Pittsburgh Pirates May 18 $6 −$6 -100%
Will Paraguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 13 $205 $0 -0%
Will Franco Colapinto be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 11 $206 $0 -0%
Will Athletic Club win on 2026-05-10? May 11 $7 +$8 +129%
Will 11 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? May 08 $197 $0 -0%
Will Uzbekistan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 06 $185 $0 -0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,200 on May 3? May 06 $88 $0 +0%
Will Wuthering Heights be the top grossing movie of 2026? Apr 30 $183 $0 -0%
Will Eduardo Leite win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Apr 26 $190 $0 -0%
Will Latvia win Eurovision 2026? Apr 25 $196 $0 -0%
Will Kang Hoon-sik win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election Apr 25 $179 $0 -0%
Will Ghana win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 25 $379 $0 -0%
Will François Bayrou win the 2027 French presidential election? Apr 24 $186 $0 -0%
Will Iran win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 23 $190 $0 -0%
Will Tesla be the largest company in the world by market cap on June 3 Apr 23 $179 $0 -0%
Will the Chicago White Sox win the 2026 World Series? Apr 22 $184 $0 -0%
Will Park Yong-jin win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election Apr 22 $179 $0 -0%
Will Algeria win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 18 $184 $0 -0%
Will the Washington Nationals win the 2026 World Series? Apr 17 $193 $0 -0%
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the April 2026 m Apr 16 $199 $0 -0%
Will Michelle Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Apr 16 $183 $0 -0%
Will Aldo Rebelo win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Apr 15 $187 $0 -0%
Will Luxembourg win Eurovision 2026? Apr 15 $186 $0 -0%
Will Na Kyung-won win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election Apr 14 $190 $0 -0%
Will Curaçao win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 13 $200 $0 -0%
MegaETH market cap (FDV) >$3B one day after launch? Apr 11 $21 +$1 +3%
Sabres vs. Rangers Apr 11 $8 −$8 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will François Ruffin win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $40 21h
Will François Ruffin win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $40 23h
Will Egypt win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $54 4d
Will Manuel Bompard win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $39 4d
Will Manuel Bompard win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $39 4d
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 52¢ $5 5d
Will François Asselineau win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $25 5d
Will François Asselineau win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $25 5d
Will Solana reach $130 in June? BUY No 100¢ $112 6d
Will Valtteri Bottas be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $37 6d
Will Valtteri Bottas be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $37 6d
Will Marine Tondelier win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $23 7d
Will Marine Tondelier win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $23 7d
Will Beto O’Rourke win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $27 11d
Will Beto O’Rourke win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $27 11d
Will Mathilde Panot win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $35 12d
Will Mathilde Panot win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $35 12d
Will Erika Kirk win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $23 13d
Will Erika Kirk win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $23 13d
Will Carole Delga win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $25 14d
Will Carole Delga win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $26 14d
Will Jasmine Crockett win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $23 18d
Will Jasmine Crockett win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $23 18d
Will Israel Katz be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 100¢ $24 19d
Will Israel Katz be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 100¢ $24 19d
Will Oprah Winfrey win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $31 20d
Will Oprah Winfrey win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $31 20d
Will Michel Barnier win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $33 21d
Will Michel Barnier win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $33 21d
Will BetBoom win IEM Cologne Major 2026? SELL No 99¢ $26 23d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $165.13 · official $165.13 (match) · 246 history records