Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T01:59:21+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
14 0x140b…d0d9 sports 47 markets active 1h ago coverage 53d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$446 (-13%) realized −$462 · open +$16
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -5% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -14% what you keep after slip
Net edge-14%after slip
Net WR41%break-even
Win rate43%19W / 25L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$73per market
Trades / day1.8pace
Fees−$26est.
Kalshi-fit64%portable
Net worth$221now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$386
7 days−$427
14 days−$427
30 days−$427
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 48% +$45
other 44% −$362
world 6% −$196
crypto 3% +$49
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +41%
net ROI/market (all)-14.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 39 -12.8% -21.1% 41% 38% -23.1%
≤30d 39 -12.8% -21.1% 41% 38% -23.1%
≤90d 44 -5.1% -14.1% 43% 41% -23.2%
all 44 -5.1% -14.1% 43% 41% -23.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.8 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -14.1% 41% -23.2%
10% -22.3% 36% -30.5%
15% -29.8% 34% -37.2%
20% -36.7% 30% -43.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 15% · top 2 30% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -15% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
5% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -5% · $-wt -15% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +8% → late -18% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$44 vs −$52 · ×0.83 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.63 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

53d coverage
Net worth$221
Realized−$462
Unrealized+$16
Win rate (resolved)43%
Wins / losses19 / 25
Est. fees paid−$26
Open positions2
Markets (closed)44 / 47
History coverage53d
Avg bet$73
Trades / day1.8
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit64%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 44 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
New York Liberty vs. Chicago Sky New York Liberty 80¢ 86¢ $165 $179 +$14 (+9%)
Spread: Colombia (-1.5) Colombia 44¢ 46¢ $40 $42 +$2 (+6%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 2 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Chicago White Sox vs. New York Yankees: O/U 11.5 Jun 18 $41 +$37 +91%
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? Jun 18 $46 −$23 -50%
Will Panama win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $46 −$3 -7%
Harry Kane: 3+ goals Jun 17 $31 −$30 -98%
Harry Kane: 1+ goals Jun 17 $102 +$123 +121%
England vs. Croatia: O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $39 +$40 +105%
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? Jun 17 $196 −$196 -100%
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $30 −$30 -100%
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? Jun 17 $127 −$113 -90%
Julián Álvarez: 1+ goals Jun 17 $31 −$31 -100%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $101 −$101 -100%
Jeremy Doku: 1+ assists Jun 17 $61 −$61 -100%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? Jun 17 $201 −$201 -100%
Spread: Portugal (-1.5) Jun 17 $51 −$23 -46%
Bruno Fernandes: 1+ assists Jun 17 $20 −$20 -98%
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $30 +$26 +86%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $142 +$78 +55%
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $51 −$5 -10%
Minnesota Twins vs. Texas Rangers Jun 17 $26 −$23 -88%
Erling Haaland: 1+ goals Jun 16 $175 +$95 +54%
France vs. Senegal: O/U 2.5 Jun 16 $99 +$76 +76%
Will Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay end in a draw? Jun 15 $13 +$13 +100%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $126 −$5 -4%
Sweden vs. Tunisia: O/U 3.5 Jun 15 $50 +$15 +29%
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $61 +$23 +38%
Sweden vs. Tunisia: O/U 2.5 Jun 15 $102 +$123 +121%
Hurricanes vs. Golden Knights: O/U 4.5 Jun 15 $96 −$31 -33%
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: O/U 1.5 Jun 15 $49 −$42 -84%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $102 +$49 +48%
St. Louis Cardinals vs. Minnesota Twins Jun 14 $20 +$19 +93%
St. Louis Cardinals vs. Minnesota Twins: O/U 11.5 Jun 14 $20 −$2 -11%
Will Australia vs. Türkiye end in a draw? Jun 14 $165 +$5 +3%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $101 −$100 -98%
Will Tommy Fleetwood win the 2026 RBC Canadian Open? Jun 13 $41 −$6 -14%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $101 +$13 +12%
Colorado Rockies vs. Athletics Jun 13 $20 +$18 +90%
Nuggets vs. Timberwolves: O/U 224.5 Jun 13 $30 −$30 -100%
Lakers vs. Rockets Jun 13 $47 −$42 -89%
Cavaliers vs. Pistons Jun 13 $62 −$62 -100%
Timberwolves vs. Spurs May 07 $103 −$101 -98%
Lakers vs. Thunder May 06 $143 +$21 +14%
Will the Minnesota Timberwolves win the 2026 NBA Finals? May 01 $60 −$28 -46%
Cavaliers vs. Raptors Apr 26 $10 +$11 +114%
Nuggets vs. Timberwolves Apr 26 $15 +$44 +292%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Chicago White Sox vs. New York Yankees: O/U 11.5 SELL Over 99¢ $78 54m
New York Liberty vs. Chicago Sky BUY New York Liberty 80¢ $166 1h
Spread: Colombia (-1.5) BUY Colombia 44¢ $41 1h
Chicago White Sox vs. New York Yankees: O/U 11.5 BUY Over 51¢ $41 1h
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? SELL Yes 21¢ $23 1h
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 40¢ $46 2h
Will Panama win on 2026-06-17? SELL Yes 29¢ $43 2h
Will Panama win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 30¢ $15 3h
Will Panama win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 30¢ $31 4h
Harry Kane: 3+ goals BUY Yes 43¢ $10 4h
Harry Kane: 3+ goals BUY Yes 43¢ $20 4h
Harry Kane: 1+ goals SELL Yes 100¢ $224 4h
England vs. Croatia: O/U 2.5 SELL Over 100¢ $79 4h
England vs. Croatia: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 48¢ $39 6h
Harry Kane: 1+ goals BUY Yes 45¢ $102 6h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 64¢ $101 8h
Spread: Portugal (-1.5) SELL Portugal 29¢ $27 8h
Spread: Portugal (-1.5) BUY Portugal 52¢ $51 9h
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 55¢ $30 11h
Bruno Fernandes: 1+ assists BUY Yes 35¢ $20 11h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? SELL Yes 100¢ $219 23h
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 53¢ $30 23h
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 2.5 SELL Over 45¢ $46 24h
Minnesota Twins vs. Texas Rangers SELL Texas Rangers 3¢ $3 24h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 66¢ $40 24h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 63¢ $101 24h
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 47¢ $10 25h
Minnesota Twins vs. Texas Rangers BUY Texas Rangers 11¢ $5 25h
Minnesota Twins vs. Texas Rangers BUY Texas Rangers 36¢ $20 25h
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 49¢ $41 26h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $221.27 · official $221.27 (match) · 106 history records