Wallet analysis

2026-06-27T06:45:37+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.5
score
14 0x140c…4395 crypto 82 markets active 1h ago coverage 133d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$125 (-1%) realized −$125 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -10% what you keep after slip
Net edge-10%after slip
Net WR5%break-even
Win rate93%75W / 6L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$244per market
Trades / day0.8pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit87%portable
Net worth$310now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$52
7 days−$41
14 days−$40
30 days−$144
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 90% −$42
other 6% +$11
tech 2% −$113
sports 2% +$8
weather 0% $0
world 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +5%
net ROI/market (all)-10.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 13 -2.3% -11.6% 85% 0% -10.9%
≤30d 35 -1.5% -10.9% 89% 3% -10.9%
≤90d 73 +0.2% -9.4% 93% 4% -10.1%
all 81 -0.6% -10.1% 93% 5% -10.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.8 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -10.1% 5% -10.2%
10% -18.7% 2% -18.8%
15% -26.6% 1% -26.6%
20% -33.8% 0% -33.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 16% · top 2 27% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
93% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -1% · $-wt -1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -0% → late -1% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$35 · ×0.03 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.35 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

133d coverage
Net worth$310
Realized−$125
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)93%
Wins / losses75 / 6
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions1
Markets (closed)81 / 82
History coverage133d
Avg bet$244
Trades / day0.8
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit87%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 81 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 27? No 100¢ 100¢ $310 $310 +$0 (+0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Cap FDV above $150M one day after launch? Jun 27 $25 +$3 +10%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 26? Jun 26 $284 +$1 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 25? Jun 25 $26 $0 +1%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $58,000 on June 25? Jun 25 $116 −$48 -42%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $56,000 on June 25? Jun 25 $200 −$8 -4%
Czechia vs. Mexico: Both Teams to Score Jun 25 $357 +$8 +2%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 24? Jun 24 $358 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on June 23? Jun 23 $349 +$1 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on June 22? Jun 22 $349 +$1 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on June 22? Jun 22 $7 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on June 21? Jun 21 $200 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 21? Jun 21 $5 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 20? Jun 20 $356 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 19? Jun 19 $356 $0 +0%
o1 FDV above $100M one day after launch? Jun 18 $352 +$2 +1%
o1 FDV above $1B one day after launch? Jun 18 $50 −$3 -6%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on June 17? Jun 17 $5 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $58,000 on June 17? Jun 17 $300 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $58,000 on June 15? Jun 15 $355 +$1 +0%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $1.8T? Jun 12 $90 +$12 +13%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2.2T? Jun 12 $366 −$126 -34%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 11? Jun 11 $399 +$1 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on June 8? Jun 08 $466 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on June 7? Jun 07 $466 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 6? Jun 06 $442 +$1 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $82,000 on June 6? Jun 06 $22 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 5? Jun 05 $441 +$1 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on June 5? Jun 05 $440 +$1 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on June 4? Jun 04 $63 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on June 4? Jun 04 $400 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $72,000 on June 3? Jun 03 $462 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on June 1? Jun 01 $460 +$1 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $76,000 on May 29? May 29 $298 +$2 +1%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on May 29? May 29 $161 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $78,000 on May 28? May 28 $458 +$1 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $74,000 on May 26? May 26 $447 +$2 +1%
Will Solstice launch a token by June 30 2026? May 25 $455 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $80,000 on May 24? May 24 $449 +$1 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $78,000 on May 23? May 23 $449 +$1 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $82,000 on May 22? May 22 $452 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $82,000 on May 21? May 21 $450 +$1 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $80,000 on May 19? May 19 $451 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $82,000 on May 18? May 18 $446 +$4 +1%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $82,000 on May 16? May 16 $445 +$1 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $84,000 on May 15? May 15 $444 +$1 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $84,000 on May 14? May 14 $444 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $76,000 on May 13? May 13 $444 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $86,000 on May 12? May 12 $429 +$1 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $78,000 on May 12? May 12 $436 +$2 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $86,000 on May 11? May 11 $439 +$1 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 27? BUY No 100¢ $310 1h
Cap FDV above $150M one day after launch? SELL Yes 99¢ $28 1h
Cap FDV above $150M one day after launch? BUY Yes 89¢ $25 21h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 26? BUY No 100¢ $50 40h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 26? BUY No 100¢ $199 40h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 26? BUY No 100¢ $35 40h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $58,000 on June 25? SELL Yes 70¢ $21 40h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $56,000 on June 25? SELL Yes 96¢ $192 40h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $58,000 on June 25? SELL Yes 56¢ $46 40h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 25? BUY No 99¢ $26 41h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $56,000 on June 25? BUY Yes 100¢ $200 45h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $58,000 on June 25? BUY Yes 99¢ $116 45h
Czechia vs. Mexico: Both Teams to Score BUY No 97¢ $63 2d
Czechia vs. Mexico: Both Teams to Score BUY No 98¢ $49 2d
Czechia vs. Mexico: Both Teams to Score BUY No 98¢ $49 2d
Czechia vs. Mexico: Both Teams to Score BUY No 98¢ $17 2d
Czechia vs. Mexico: Both Teams to Score BUY No 98¢ $49 2d
Czechia vs. Mexico: Both Teams to Score BUY No 98¢ $49 2d
Czechia vs. Mexico: Both Teams to Score BUY No 98¢ $55 2d
Czechia vs. Mexico: Both Teams to Score BUY No 98¢ $26 2d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 24? BUY No 100¢ $358 2d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on June 23? BUY No 100¢ $349 4d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on June 22? BUY No 100¢ $39 5d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on June 22? BUY No 100¢ $310 5d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on June 22? BUY Yes 100¢ $7 5d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 21? SELL Yes 100¢ $5 5d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on June 21? BUY Yes 100¢ $200 5d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 21? BUY Yes 100¢ $5 5d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 20? BUY No 100¢ $356 6d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 19? BUY No 100¢ $356 7d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $309.85 · official $309.85 (match) · 183 history records