Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T16:12:00+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
14 0x1410…7146 other 38 markets active 2h ago coverage 55d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$126 (-5%) realized −$123 · open −$3
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -3% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -12% what you keep after slip
Net edge-12%after slip
Net WR73%break-even
Win rate76%28W / 9L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$71per market
Trades / day0.8pace
Fees−$2est.
Kalshi-fit13%portable
Net worth$93now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$24
7 days−$202
14 days−$170
30 days−$170
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 90% +$19
sports 10% −$166
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +73%
net ROI/market (all)-12.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 18 -25.1% -32.3% 61% 61% -22.8%
≤30d 21 -19.6% -27.2% 67% 67% -19.1%
≤90d 37 -3.1% -12.3% 76% 73% -14.6%
all 37 -3.1% -12.3% 76% 73% -14.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.8 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -12.3% 73% -14.6%
10% -20.7% 38% -22.7%
15% -28.4% 19% -30.2%
20% -35.4% 5% -37.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 9% · top 2 15% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -6% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
4% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -3% · $-wt -6% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +18% → late -23% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$16 vs −$67 · ×0.24 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.76 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

55d coverage
Net worth$93
Realized−$123
Unrealized−$3
Win rate (resolved)76%
Wins / losses28 / 9
Est. fees paid−$2
Open positions1
Markets (closed)37 / 38
History coverage55d
Avg bet$71
Trades / day0.8
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit13%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 37 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Spain leading at halftime? Yes 75¢ 72¢ $96 $93 −$3 (-3%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 2 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-19? Jun 19 $87 +$10 +11%
Will Australia win on 2026-06-19? Jun 19 $71 +$14 +20%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-18? Jun 19 $57 +$16 +29%
Canada vs. Qatar: O/U 5.5 Jun 18 $73 −$72 -99%
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $112 +$18 +16%
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? Jun 18 $82 +$29 +36%
Will Panama win on 2026-06-17? Jun 18 $59 +$23 +40%
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $50 +$9 +18%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $112 −$111 -99%
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $143 +$19 +13%
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $126 +$17 +13%
UFC 328: Sean Strickland vs. Khamzat Chimaev (Middleweight, Main Card) Jun 16 $14 −$14 -100%
Will UD Las Palmas win on 2026-05-16? Jun 16 $18 −$18 -100%
Will Australia win on 2026-06-14? Jun 16 $20 −$20 -100%
Will Málaga CF win on 2026-06-07? Jun 16 $68 −$68 -100%
SC Braga vs. SC Freiburg: O/U 2.5 Jun 16 $99 −$99 -100%
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $108 +$18 +17%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $80 +$27 +34%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $85 +$16 +18%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $75 +$9 +13%
Will South Africa win on 2026-06-11? Jun 11 $68 +$7 +11%
Internationaux de Strasbourg, Qualification: McCartney Kessler vs Rena May 16 $12 +$7 +60%
Will Aston Villa FC win on 2026-05-17? May 15 $130 −$119 -91%
Will Real Madrid CF win on 2026-05-14? May 14 $119 +$11 +9%
Will CA Osasuna win on 2026-05-12? May 12 $97 +$22 +23%
Will Girona FC win on 2026-05-11? May 12 $72 +$25 +34%
Will FC Barcelona win on 2026-05-10? May 11 $53 +$19 +36%
Will Real Betis Balompié win on 2026-05-09? May 09 $97 −$82 -85%
Will CA Osasuna win on 2026-05-08? May 08 $74 +$23 +31%
SC Freiburg vs. SC Braga: O/U 4.5 May 07 $61 +$13 +21%
Will SC Braga win on 2026-05-07? May 07 $51 +$10 +20%
Will Club Atlético de Madrid win on 2026-05-05? May 05 $42 +$8 +20%
Will Real Sociedad de Fútbol win on 2026-05-04? May 05 $29 +$13 +44%
Will RCD Espanyol de Barcelona win on 2026-05-03? May 03 $23 +$6 +26%
Will Arsenal FC win on 2026-04-29? Apr 29 $59 +$41 +70%
Will FC Bayern München win on 2026-04-28? Apr 28 $39 +$20 +50%
Will Brentford FC win on 2026-04-27? Apr 28 $30 +$9 +31%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Spain leading at halftime? BUY Yes 75¢ $97 1h
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-19? SELL No 95¢ $97 41h
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-19? BUY No 85¢ $87 42h
Will Australia win on 2026-06-19? BUY No 83¢ $10 45h
Will Australia win on 2026-06-19? BUY No 83¢ $61 45h
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-18? BUY No 77¢ $57 2d
Canada vs. Qatar: O/U 5.5 BUY Under 68¢ $73 2d
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-18? BUY No 86¢ $112 2d
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 73¢ $82 3d
Will Panama win on 2026-06-17? BUY No 71¢ $59 3d
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-17? BUY No 84¢ $50 3d
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 78¢ $112 3d
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-16? BUY No 88¢ $143 4d
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-16? BUY No 88¢ $126 4d
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-15? BUY No 85¢ $108 6d
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? BUY No 74¢ $80 7d
Will Australia win on 2026-06-14? BUY No 47¢ $20 7d
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13? BUY No 84¢ $85 7d
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? SELL Yes 93¢ $85 7d
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 82¢ $75 7d
Will South Africa win on 2026-06-11? BUY No 90¢ $68 9d
Will Málaga CF win on 2026-06-07? BUY No 74¢ $68 14d
Will UD Las Palmas win on 2026-05-16? BUY No 82¢ $18 35d
Internationaux de Strasbourg, Qualification: McCartney Kessler vs Rena BUY McCartney Kessler 62¢ $12 36d
Will Aston Villa FC win on 2026-05-17? SELL No 6¢ $11 36d
Will Aston Villa FC win on 2026-05-17? BUY No 66¢ $130 36d
Will Real Madrid CF win on 2026-05-14? SELL Yes 86¢ $130 37d
Will Real Madrid CF win on 2026-05-14? BUY Yes 78¢ $119 37d
Will CA Osasuna win on 2026-05-12? BUY No 81¢ $97 39d
Will Girona FC win on 2026-05-11? BUY No 74¢ $72 40d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $92.81 · official $92.81 (match) · 74 history records