Wallet analysis

2026-06-29T20:34:33+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.5
score
14 0x1413…4bdd sports 921 markets active 1h ago coverage 645d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$617 (+1%) realized +$621 · open −$4
Gross ROI / mkt -2% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -11% what you keep after slip
Net edge-11%after slip
Net WR61%break-even
Win rate62%567W / 352L
Whale WR86%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$50per market
Trades / day1.7pace
Fees−$159est.
Kalshi-fit66%portable
Net worth$1,130now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$62
7 days+$328
14 days+$492
30 days+$458
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 62% −$1,345
other 37% +$1,717
politics 1% −$368
world 0% +$4
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +61%
net ROI/market (all)-11.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 28 -13.1% -21.4% 46% 43% -1.6%
≤30d 84 -7.5% -16.3% 58% 52% -6.1%
≤90d 175 -3.3% -12.5% 60% 57% -5.5%
all 919 -2.0% -11.3% 62% 61% -9.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.7 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -11.3% 61% -9.5%
10% -19.8% 59% -18.2%
15% -27.5% 50% -26.1%
20% -34.6% 29% -33.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 4% · top 2 6% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +4% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
1% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -2% · $-wt +0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 86% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +2% → late -6% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$26 vs −$41 · ×0.62 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.0 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

645d coverage
Net worth$1,130
Realized+$621
Unrealized−$4
Win rate (resolved)62%
Wins / losses567 / 352
Whale WR (big bets)86%
Est. fees paid−$159
Open positions2
Markets (closed)919 / 921
History coverage645d
Avg bet$50
Trades / day1.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit66%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 919 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Germany win on 2026-06-29? Yes 74¢ 74¢ $1,000 $993 −$7 (-1%)
Will France win on 2026-06-30? Yes 76¢ 78¢ $134 $136 +$3 (+2%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 160 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Brazil vs. Japan end in a draw? Jun 29 $137 −$136 -99%
Brazil vs. Japan: Team to Advance Jun 29 $54 −$53 -98%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-28? Jun 28 $102 +$90 +88%
Spread: Argentina (-3.5) Jun 28 $44 −$44 -100%
Jordan vs. Argentina: Jordan O/U 0.5 Jun 28 $158 −$157 -99%
Colombia vs. Portugal: Neither team to score first? Jun 28 $78 +$317 +408%
DR Congo vs. Uzbekistan: Neither team to score first? Jun 27 $24 −$24 -100%
Panama vs. England: Both Teams to Score Jun 27 $107 +$70 +65%
Panama vs. England: Neither team to score first? Jun 27 $33 −$32 -97%
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-26? Jun 27 $73 −$72 -98%
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-26? Jun 27 $51 −$50 -97%
Cabo Verde vs. Saudi Arabia: O/U 0.5 Jun 27 $102 +$197 +193%
Uruguay vs. Spain: O/U 0.5 Jun 27 $103 −$100 -98%
Spread: France (-2.5) Jun 26 $74 +$22 +29%
Will Japan vs. Sweden end in a draw? Jun 26 $102 +$22 +22%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-24? Jun 25 $1,471 +$260 +18%
Morocco vs. Haiti: Neither team to score first? Jun 24 $3 −$3 -100%
Bosnia and Herzegovina vs. Qatar: O/U 3.5 Jun 24 $101 −$100 -99%
Bosnia-Herzegovina vs. Qatar: Neither team to score first? Jun 24 $15 −$15 -100%
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-23? Jun 24 $162 +$79 +49%
Panama vs. Croatia: Neither team to score first? Jun 23 $15 −$15 -97%
Spread: England (-1.5) Jun 23 $101 −$100 -99%
Portugal vs. Uzbekistan: Both Teams to Score Jun 23 $124 +$76 +61%
Jordan vs. Algeria: O/U 1.5 Jun 23 $100 +$49 +49%
Jordan vs. Algeria: Both Teams to Score Jun 23 $116 +$24 +21%
Norway to score first vs. Senegal? Jun 23 $90 +$110 +122%
France vs. Iraq: O/U 2.5 Jun 23 $102 −$100 -98%
Spread: France (-2.5) Jun 22 $142 +$14 +10%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? Jun 22 $1,197 +$121 +10%
Argentina vs. Austria: Austria O/U 0.5 Jun 22 $75 +$15 +20%
New Zealand vs. Egypt: Egypt O/U 1.5 Jun 22 $112 −$112 -100%
Will Belgium vs. IR Iran end in a draw? Jun 21 $1,102 +$68 +6%
Spread: Belgium (-1.5) Jun 21 $102 −$100 -98%
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: Saudi Arabia O/U 0.5 Jun 21 $151 +$72 +48%
Spread: Japan (-1.5) Jun 21 $165 +$90 +54%
Tunisia vs. Japan: Tunisia O/U 0.5 Jun 21 $20 +$2 +12%
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: Germany O/U 0.5 Jun 20 $115 +$25 +22%
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: Neither team to score first? Jun 20 $20 −$20 -100%
Netherlands vs. Sweden: Sweden O/U 1.5 Jun 20 $251 +$19 +8%
Netherlands vs. Sweden: Both Teams to Score Jun 20 $844 −$232 -28%
Türkiye vs. Paraguay: Both Teams to Score Jun 20 $54 +$155 +285%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $82 +$58 +70%
Brazil vs. Haiti: Neither team to score first? Jun 20 $20 −$20 -100%
Scotland vs. Morocco: Morocco O/U 1.5 Jun 19 $75 −$75 -100%
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? Jun 19 $84 +$48 +57%
Canada vs. Qatar: Both Teams to Score Jun 19 $1,105 +$97 +9%
Spread: Switzerland (-1.5) Jun 18 $86 −$85 -99%
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $114 −$113 -99%
Spread: Czechia (-1.5) Jun 18 $53 +$12 +23%
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: Both Teams to Score Jun 18 $113 −$112 -99%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Germany win on 2026-06-29? BUY Yes 74¢ $1,008 1h
Will Brazil vs. Japan end in a draw? BUY Yes 67¢ $137 1h
Brazil vs. Japan: Team to Advance BUY Japan 27¢ $54 4h
Will Canada win on 2026-06-28? SELL Yes 99¢ $192 23h
Will Canada win on 2026-06-28? BUY Yes 52¢ $102 25h
Spread: Argentina (-3.5) BUY Argentina 44¢ $44 41h
Jordan vs. Argentina: Jordan O/U 0.5 BUY Under 75¢ $158 42h
Colombia vs. Portugal: Neither team to score first? SELL Yes 92¢ $130 43h
Colombia vs. Portugal: Neither team to score first? SELL Yes 80¢ $27 43h
Colombia vs. Portugal: Neither team to score first? SELL Yes 66¢ $66 43h
Colombia vs. Portugal: Neither team to score first? SELL Yes 60¢ $60 43h
Colombia vs. Portugal: Neither team to score first? SELL Yes 40¢ $9 43h
Colombia vs. Portugal: Neither team to score first? SELL Yes 40¢ $13 43h
Colombia vs. Portugal: Neither team to score first? SELL Yes 40¢ $23 43h
Colombia vs. Portugal: Neither team to score first? SELL Yes 33¢ $33 43h
Colombia vs. Portugal: Neither team to score first? BUY Yes 18¢ $51 43h
Colombia vs. Portugal: Neither team to score first? BUY Yes $7 44h
Colombia vs. Portugal: Neither team to score first? BUY Yes $17 44h
Colombia vs. Portugal: Neither team to score first? BUY Yes $1 44h
Colombia vs. Portugal: Neither team to score first? BUY Yes $2 44h
DR Congo vs. Uzbekistan: Neither team to score first? BUY Yes $24 44h
Panama vs. England: Both Teams to Score BUY No 60¢ $107 2d
Will France win on 2026-06-30? BUY Yes 76¢ $135 2d
Panama vs. England: Neither team to score first? BUY Yes $33 2d
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-26? BUY Yes 36¢ $73 2d
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-26? BUY Yes $51 2d
Cabo Verde vs. Saudi Arabia: O/U 0.5 SELL Under 51¢ $44 2d
Cabo Verde vs. Saudi Arabia: O/U 0.5 SELL Under 51¢ $3 2d
Cabo Verde vs. Saudi Arabia: O/U 0.5 SELL Under 51¢ $2 2d
Cabo Verde vs. Saudi Arabia: O/U 0.5 SELL Under 51¢ $3 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1,129.64 · official $1,129.64 (match) · 1842 history records