Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T06:44:25+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
14 0x1417…4dd2 crypto 686 markets active 1h ago coverage 12d ⚠
BOTnot copyable crypto specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 12d only
✗ bot/MM pace (235 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$3,761 (-17%) realized −$3,761 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -35% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -50% what you keep after slip
Net edge-50%after slip
Net WR41%break-even
Win rate49%539W / 551L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$32per market
Trades / day235.3pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$6,370
7 days−$6,059
14 days−$5,455
30 days−$5,455
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% +$852
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (235 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +41%
net ROI/market (all)-41.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 755 -56.1% -60.3% 34% 28% -40.8%
≤30d 1090 -34.9% -41.1% 49% 41% -27.3%
≤90d 1090 -34.9% -41.1% 49% 41% -27.3%
all 1090 -34.9% -41.1% 49% 41% -27.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover235.3 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -41.1% 41% -27.3%
10% ← realistic here -46.8% 11% -34.3%
15% -51.9% 2% -40.6%
20% -56.6% 2% -46.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 3% · top 2 5% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -20% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
17% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -35% · $-wt -20% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +10% → late -80% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
4.2 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$6 vs −$16 · ×0.39 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.38 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

12d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$3,761
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)49%
Wins / losses539 / 551
Open positions0
Markets (closed)1090 / 686
History coverage12d ⚠
Avg bet$32
Trades / day235.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 1090 Trades
no open positions (500 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 6, 9:35PM-9:40PM ET Jun 23 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 25, 8:20PM-8:25PM ET Jun 23 $6 −$6 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 20, 12:40PM-12:45PM ET Jun 23 $13 −$13 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 7, 1:50AM-1:55AM ET Jun 23 $75 −$75 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 7:15PM-7:20PM ET Jun 23 $35 −$35 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 22, 12:45AM-12:50AM ET Jun 23 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 31, 7:55PM-8:00PM ET Jun 23 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 1, 10:05PM-10:10PM ET Jun 23 $12 −$12 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 20, 1:45PM-1:50PM ET Jun 23 $7 −$7 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 6, 1:25PM-1:30PM ET Jun 23 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 2:15AM-2:20AM ET Jun 23 $25 −$25 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 1, 10:55PM-11:00PM ET Jun 23 $21 −$21 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 2, 5:05AM-5:10AM ET Jun 23 $7 −$7 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 2, 11:45AM-11:50AM ET Jun 23 $9 −$9 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 24, 12:20PM-12:25PM ET Jun 23 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 2:25AM-2:30AM ET Jun 23 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 13, 5:15PM-5:20PM ET Jun 23 $7 −$7 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 31, 2:50PM-2:55PM ET Jun 23 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 6, 7:30PM-7:35PM ET Jun 23 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 1:10AM-1:15AM ET Jun 23 $67 −$67 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 25, 8:25AM-8:30AM ET Jun 23 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 31, 6:45PM-6:50PM ET Jun 23 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 13, 6:20PM-6:25PM ET Jun 23 $13 −$13 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 24, 5:45PM-5:50PM ET Jun 23 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 6, 10:50PM-10:55PM ET Jun 23 $48 −$48 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 7:00AM-7:05AM ET Jun 23 $96 −$96 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 21, 2:45PM-2:50PM ET Jun 23 $12 −$12 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 2, 8:00AM-8:05AM ET Jun 23 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 29, 2:35PM-2:40PM ET Jun 23 $17 −$17 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 7, 4:10PM-4:15PM ET Jun 23 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 7, 2:55PM-3:00PM ET Jun 23 $6 −$6 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 23, 3:25AM-3:30AM ET Jun 23 $6 −$6 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 4, 10:20AM-10:25AM ET Jun 23 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 29, 4:05PM-4:10PM ET Jun 23 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 25, 3:50PM-3:55PM ET Jun 23 $6 −$6 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 9, 1:20PM-1:25PM ET Jun 23 $47 −$47 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 31, 3:50PM-3:55PM ET Jun 23 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 9, 8:10PM-8:15PM ET Jun 23 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 6:20AM-6:25AM ET Jun 23 $34 −$34 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 9:45PM-9:50PM ET Jun 23 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 7, 5:15AM-5:20AM ET Jun 23 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 23, 8:15PM-8:20PM ET Jun 23 $6 −$6 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 21, 11:55PM-12:00AM ET Jun 23 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 9, 1:15AM-1:20AM ET Jun 23 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 4, 2:10PM-2:15PM ET Jun 23 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 5, 11:10AM-11:15AM ET Jun 23 $20 −$20 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 9, 6:55PM-7:00PM ET Jun 23 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 1, 1:20PM-1:25PM ET Jun 23 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 1, 4:50PM-4:55PM ET Jun 23 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 23, 12:15AM-12:20AM ET Jun 23 $9 −$9 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 1:50AM-1:55AM ET BUY Up 86¢ $17 51m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 1:45AM-1:50AM ET BUY Up 6¢ $2 56m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 1:45AM-1:50AM ET BUY Up 6¢ $0 56m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 1:45AM-1:50AM ET BUY Up 6¢ $0 56m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 1:45AM-1:50AM ET BUY Down 87¢ $26 57m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 1:35AM-1:40AM ET BUY Up 76¢ $23 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 1:30AM-1:35AM ET BUY Up 73¢ $15 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 1:30AM-1:35AM ET BUY Up 81¢ $24 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 1:15AM-1:20AM ET BUY Up 80¢ $6 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 1:15AM-1:20AM ET BUY Up 80¢ $0 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 1:15AM-1:20AM ET BUY Up 80¢ $6 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 1:15AM-1:20AM ET BUY Up 80¢ $4 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 1:15AM-1:20AM ET BUY Up 80¢ $7 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 1:15AM-1:20AM ET BUY Up 81¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 1:15AM-1:20AM ET BUY Up 81¢ $8 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 1:15AM-1:20AM ET BUY Up 81¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 1:15AM-1:20AM ET BUY Up 81¢ $0 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 1:15AM-1:20AM ET BUY Up 81¢ $9 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 1:15AM-1:20AM ET BUY Up 81¢ $34 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 1:15AM-1:20AM ET BUY Up 85¢ $22 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 1:05AM-1:10AM ET BUY Up 6¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 1:05AM-1:10AM ET BUY Down 81¢ $19 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 1:00AM-1:05AM ET BUY Down 6¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 1:00AM-1:05AM ET BUY Up 78¢ $16 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 12:50AM-12:55AM ET BUY Up 4¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 12:50AM-12:55AM ET BUY Down 95¢ $29 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 12:45AM-12:50AM ET BUY Down 6¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 12:45AM-12:50AM ET BUY Up 86¢ $4 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 12:45AM-12:50AM ET BUY Up 86¢ $20 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 12:35AM-12:40AM ET BUY Up 6¢ $1 2h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 3500 history records