Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T20:35:09+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
14 0x1418…6fef sports 71 markets active 0h ago coverage 3d ⚠
BOTnot copyable sports specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 3d only
✗ bot/MM pace (1140 trades/day) — uncopyable
Total PnL +$6,578 (+5%) realized +$6,518 · open +$60
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +457% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +312% what you keep after slip
Net edge+312%after slip
Net WR29%break-even
Win rate60%44W / 29L
Whale WR63%big bets
Drawdown5%max
Avg bet$2,003per market
Trades / day1139.8pace
Fees−$1,556est.
Kalshi-fit53%portable
Net worth$13,069now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 3d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
other 54% +$3,155
sports 45% +$1,984
world 1% +$2,778
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (1140 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +29%
net ROI/market (all)+404.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 73 +457.2% +404.2% 60% 29% -0.5%
≤30d 73 +457.2% +404.2% 60% 29% -0.5%
≤90d 73 +457.2% +404.2% 60% 29% -0.5%
all 73 +457.2% +404.2% 60% 29% -0.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1139.8 tr/day
realistic slip~15%
edge survives to20%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal +404.2% 29% -0.5%
10% +355.9% 29% -10.0%
15% ← realistic here +311.9% 27% -18.7%
20% +271.5% 26% -26.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 32% · top 2 55% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +11% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
52% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +457% · $-wt +11% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 63% (≥$1,290) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +287% → late +623% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
28.2 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$194 vs −$18 · ×10.87 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×17.08 per $1 lost it wins $17.08
Copy size
≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

3d coverage
Net worth$13,069
Realized+$6,518
Unrealized+$60
Win rate (resolved)60%
Wins / losses44 / 29
Whale WR (big bets)63%
Est. fees paid−$1,556
Open positions17
Markets (closed)73 / 71
History coverage3d ⚠
Avg bet$2,003
Trades / day1139.8
Drawdown5%
Kalshi-fit53%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 17 History 73 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will United States win on 2026-06-25? No 57¢ 57¢ $2,986 $3,012 +$26 (+1%)
Will Mexico vs. Korea Republic end in a draw? No 70¢ 70¢ $2,100 $2,115 +$15 (+1%)
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: O/U 2.5 Under 58¢ 57¢ $1,740 $1,725 −$15 (-1%)
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-20? No 96¢ 96¢ $1,478 $1,479 +$1 (+0%)
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? No 36¢ 36¢ $1,417 $1,437 +$20 (+1%)
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: O/U 1.5 Under 30¢ 30¢ $900 $915 +$15 (+2%)
Will Qatar win on 2026-06-18? No 92¢ 92¢ $918 $915 −$3 (-0%)
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-21? No 40¢ 40¢ $421 $416 −$5 (-1%)
Will Canada win on 2026-06-18? No 25¢ 26¢ $375 $383 +$8 (+2%)
Canada vs. Qatar: O/U 2.5 Under 43¢ 44¢ $215 $217 +$2 (+1%)
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-21? No 96¢ 96¢ $135 $135 +$0 (+0%)
Will Iraq win on 2026-06-22? Yes 3¢ 3¢ $123 $119 −$4 (-3%)
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? No 59¢ 58¢ $114 $113 −$1 (-1%)
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? No 38¢ 38¢ $86 $87 +$1 (+1%)
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? No 53¢ 54¢ $0 $0 +$0 (+1%)
Spread: Canada (-1.5) Qatar 49¢ 48¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-1%)
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-18? No 75¢ 76¢ $0 $0 +$0 (+0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 26 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Spurs vs. Thunder: O/U 212.5 Jun 18 $0 +$40 +66453%
Knicks vs. Spurs: O/U 217.5 Jun 18 $0 +$26 +32617%
Will Netherlands vs. Japan end in a draw? Jun 18 $0 −$25 -8464%
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-14? Jun 18 $0 −$93 -64118%
Canadiens vs. Hurricanes Jun 18 $0 −$28 -16581%
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? Jun 18 $0 +$90 +87632%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? Jun 18 $0 +$57 +63460%
United States vs. Paraguay: O/U 2.5 Jun 18 $1 −$6 -926%
Colorado Rockies vs. Los Angeles Angels Jun 18 $0 $0 -100%
Golden Knights vs. Hurricanes: O/U 5.5 Jun 18 $0 +$35 +67598%
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 18 $0 +$15 +34844%
Spread: Knicks (-1.5) Jun 18 $0 +$8 +2840%
Spread: Knicks (-2.5) Jun 18 $0 −$5 -1197%
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? Jun 18 $0 $0 -100%
Spread: Hurricanes (-1.5) Jun 18 $0 −$80 -16209%
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-14? Jun 18 $0 +$103 +1466499%
Korea Republic vs. Czechia: O/U 2.5 Jun 18 $0 $0 -101%
Paris Saint-Germain FC vs. Arsenal FC: O/U 2.5 Jun 18 $0 +$35 +42167%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? Jun 18 $0 +$26 +7925%
Spread: Germany (-1.5) Jun 18 $54 +$1 +2%
Spread: Brazil (-2.5) Jun 18 $144 +$3 +2%
Will Canada vs. Qatar end in a draw? Jun 18 $1,245 $0 -0%
Will Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw? Jun 18 $2,660 −$11 -0%
Will Czechia vs. South Africa end in a draw? Jun 18 $4,252 −$105 -2%
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $1,851 $0 -0%
Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 1.5 Jun 18 $880 −$20 -2%
Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 2.5 Jun 18 $500 $0 -0%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? Jun 18 $99 +$1,886 +1897%
Czechia vs. South Africa: O/U 2.5 Jun 18 $1,290 +$30 +2%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-27? Jun 18 $2,031 +$39 +2%
Will South Africa win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $105 −$7 -7%
Spread: Spain (-2.5) Jun 18 $510 +$10 +2%
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $5,535 +$25 +0%
Spread: Mexico (-1.5) Jun 18 $660 $0 -0%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? Jun 18 $1,602 +$816 +51%
Will Australia win on 2026-06-19? Jun 18 $3,045 $0 -0%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-25? Jun 18 $347 $0 -0%
Will Uzbekistan win on 2026-06-17? Jun 18 $2,700 +$30 +1%
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: O/U 2.5 Jun 18 $3,445 +$7 +0%
Will Uzbekistan vs. Colombia end in a draw? Jun 18 $800 $0 +0%
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $2,065 +$20 +1%
Spread: Colombia (-1.5) Jun 17 $629 +$12 +2%
Ghana vs. Panama: O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $885 +$15 +2%
Will England vs. Croatia end in a draw? Jun 17 $1,110 +$15 +1%
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $798 $0 -0%
Will Portugal vs. DR Congo end in a draw? Jun 17 $4,150 −$1 -0%
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 3.5 Jun 17 $250 +$4 +2%
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $460 +$5 +1%
Spread: Portugal (-1.5) Jun 17 $5,070 +$1,490 +29%
Spread: Portugal (-2.5) Jun 17 $3,885 −$5 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-20? BUY No 96¢ $38 0m
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-20? BUY No 96¢ $250 0m
Spread: Germany (-1.5) SELL Côte dIvoire 62¢ $55 1m
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: O/U 1.5 BUY Under 30¢ $150 3m
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: O/U 1.5 BUY Under 30¢ $41 3m
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: O/U 1.5 BUY Under 30¢ $64 3m
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-20? BUY No 96¢ $114 4m
Spread: Brazil (-2.5) SELL Haiti 50¢ $147 7m
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: O/U 1.5 BUY Under 30¢ $1 15m
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-20? BUY No 96¢ $114 16m
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-20? BUY No 96¢ $1 17m
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-20? BUY No 96¢ $113 17m
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: O/U 1.5 BUY Under 30¢ $6 18m
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: O/U 1.5 BUY Under 30¢ $7 18m
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: O/U 1.5 BUY Under 30¢ $11 18m
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-20? BUY No 96¢ $120 18m
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-21? SELL No 40¢ $2 19m
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: O/U 1.5 BUY Under 30¢ $1 20m
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-20? BUY No 96¢ $120 20m
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: O/U 1.5 BUY Under 30¢ $1 21m
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: O/U 1.5 BUY Under 30¢ $0 22m
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: O/U 1.5 BUY Under 30¢ $18 23m
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: O/U 1.5 BUY Under 30¢ $89 23m
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-20? BUY No 96¢ $127 23m
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: O/U 1.5 BUY Under 30¢ $61 24m
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: O/U 1.5 BUY Under 30¢ $150 24m
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: O/U 1.5 BUY Under 30¢ $150 24m
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: O/U 1.5 BUY Under 30¢ $150 24m
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-21? SELL No 40¢ $2 27m
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-18? SELL No 76¢ $380 32m
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $13,068.79 · official $13,068.20 (match) · 3500 history records