Wallet analysis

2026-06-12T12:01:14+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

14
0x1418…523d
crypto · 162 markets active 0h ago
0.0score
−$172 -15%
TOTAL PnL · realized −$162 · open −$10
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP crypto specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$22
Realized−$162
Unrealized−$10
Win rate (resolved)33%
Wins / losses53 / 106
Open positions3
Markets (closed)159 / 162
Avg bet$7
Trades / day106.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit99%
Chart Positions 3 History 159 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$162
7 days−$162
14 days−$162
30 days−$162
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
XRP Up or Down - June 12, 8:00AM-8:05AM ET Up 27¢ 26¢ $23 $22 −$1 (-6%)
XRP Up or Down - June 12, 7:55AM-8:00AM ET Up 21¢ 0¢ $4 $0 −$4 (-98%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:00AM-8:00AM ET Down 20¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-99%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 12:05AM-12:10AM ET Up 38¢ 0¢ $7 $0 −$7 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 11PM ET Up 9¢ 0¢ $4 $0 −$4 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 7:00AM-7:15AM ET Down 7¢ 0¢ $7 $0 −$7 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 7:50AM-7:55AM ET Down 1¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:25AM-4:30AM ET Down 38¢ 0¢ $23 $0 −$23 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET Up 18¢ 0¢ $8 $0 −$8 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 9:55PM-10:00PM ET Up 30¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 7:30AM-7:45AM ET Up 15¢ 0¢ $12 $0 −$12 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:10AM-5:15AM ET Down 34¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 10:00PM-10:05PM ET Down 18¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 7:25AM-7:30AM ET Up 22¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:15AM-5:20AM ET Down 46¢ 0¢ $4 $0 −$4 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 8:35AM-8:40AM ET Down 38¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 9:05AM-9:10AM ET Up 26¢ 0¢ $7 $0 −$7 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:30AM-4:35AM ET Up 20¢ 0¢ $3 $0 −$3 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 7:35AM-7:40AM ET Up 18¢ 0¢ $7 $0 −$7 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 7:20AM-7:25AM ET Down 29¢ 0¢ $4 $0 −$4 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 9:15AM-9:20AM ET Down 27¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 7:40AM-7:45AM ET Down 27¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 10:05AM-10:10AM ET Up 5¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 10AM ET Up 33¢ 0¢ $8 $0 −$8 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 8:45AM-8:50AM ET Down 32¢ 0¢ $7 $0 −$7 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 7:50AM-7:55AM ET Jun 12 $1 −$1 -93%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 10:20AM-10:25AM ET Jun 12 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:40AM-5:45AM ET Jun 12 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 7:45AM-7:50AM ET Jun 12 $14 −$13 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 7:40AM-7:45AM ET Jun 12 $5 −$5 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 7:30AM-7:45AM ET Jun 12 $12 −$12 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 7:35AM-7:40AM ET Jun 12 $7 −$7 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 7:30AM-7:35AM ET Jun 12 $8 −$8 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 7:15AM-7:30AM ET Jun 12 $7 +$20 +288%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 7:20AM-7:25AM ET Jun 12 $4 −$3 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 7:15AM-7:20AM ET Jun 12 $6 −$6 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 7:00AM-7:15AM ET Jun 12 $7 −$7 -93%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 6AM ET Jun 12 $8 +$6 +70%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5AM ET Jun 12 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 11:00AM-11:05AM ET Jun 12 $6 −$6 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 11:20AM-11:25AM ET Jun 12 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 11:55AM-12:00PM ET Jun 12 $7 −$7 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET Jun 12 $7 −$7 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 9:00AM-9:05AM ET Jun 12 $7 −$7 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:45AM-6:00AM ET Jun 12 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 9:50AM-9:55AM ET Jun 12 $6 −$6 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 4:00AM-8:00AM ET Jun 12 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 12PM ET Jun 12 $9 −$9 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 11:25AM-11:30AM ET Jun 12 $9 −$9 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 8:00PM-12:00AM ET Jun 12 $6 −$6 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:30AM-5:35AM ET Jun 12 $27 −$27 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:25AM-5:30AM ET Jun 12 $19 −$19 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:40AM-4:45AM ET Jun 12 $15 −$15 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:20AM-5:25AM ET Jun 12 $25 −$25 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:50AM-5:55AM ET Jun 12 $2 −$2 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:45AM-5:50AM ET Jun 12 $2 −$2 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:00AM-5:05AM ET Jun 12 $15 +$31 +212%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:15AM-5:20AM ET Jun 12 $5 −$4 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:10AM-5:15AM ET Jun 12 $5 −$5 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:05AM-5:10AM ET Jun 12 $11 −$10 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:45AM-4:50AM ET Jun 12 $21 +$24 +112%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:55AM-5:00AM ET Jun 12 $8 −$8 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:50AM-4:55AM ET Jun 12 $5 −$5 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 7:45AM-7:50AM ET Jun 12 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 6:15AM-6:20AM ET Jun 12 $7 −$1 -22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:35AM-4:40AM ET Jun 12 $16 +$12 +74%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:30AM-4:35AM ET Jun 12 $3 −$3 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:25AM-4:30AM ET Jun 12 $24 −$23 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:20AM-4:25AM ET Jun 12 $9 −$9 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 12AM ET Jun 12 $13 +$11 +88%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 8:15AM-8:20AM ET Jun 12 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 12:00AM-12:05AM ET Jun 12 $5 +$17 +311%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4AM ET Jun 12 $6 −$6 -93%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 12:00AM-4:00AM ET Jun 12 $19 −$19 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 12:10AM-12:15AM ET Jun 12 $6 +$43 +678%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
crypto 99% −$175
other 1% +$3
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
XRP Up or Down - June 12, 8:00AM-8:05AM ET BUY Up 27¢ $25 0m
XRP Up or Down - June 12, 7:55AM-8:00AM ET BUY Up 21¢ $4 4m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 7:50AM-7:55AM ET BUY Down 1¢ $1 6m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 7:45AM-7:50AM ET BUY Down 23¢ $14 14m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 7:40AM-7:45AM ET BUY Down 27¢ $5 19m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 7:30AM-7:45AM ET BUY Up 9¢ $2 24m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 7:35AM-7:40AM ET BUY Up 18¢ $7 25m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 7:30AM-7:45AM ET BUY Up 18¢ $10 27m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 7:30AM-7:35AM ET BUY Up 3¢ $1 28m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 7:30AM-7:35AM ET BUY Up 21¢ $7 29m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 7:15AM-7:30AM ET SELL Down 99¢ $27 31m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 7:15AM-7:30AM ET BUY Down 24¢ $7 36m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 7:20AM-7:25AM ET BUY Down 13¢ $4 38m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 7:15AM-7:20AM ET BUY Up 23¢ $6 43m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 7:00AM-7:15AM ET BUY Down 7¢ $7 53m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 6AM ET SELL Down 99¢ $14 53m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 6AM ET BUY Down 56¢ $8 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:50AM-5:55AM ET BUY Up 11¢ $2 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:45AM-6:00AM ET BUY Up 10¢ $2 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:45AM-5:50AM ET BUY Up 15¢ $2 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:40AM-5:45AM ET BUY Down 31¢ $2 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5AM ET BUY Down 2¢ $3 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:30AM-5:35AM ET BUY Down 56¢ $27 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:25AM-5:30AM ET BUY Down 11¢ $3 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:25AM-5:30AM ET BUY Down 41¢ $16 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:20AM-5:25AM ET BUY Down 4¢ $7 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:20AM-5:25AM ET BUY Down 11¢ $5 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:20AM-5:25AM ET BUY Down 32¢ $13 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:15AM-5:20AM ET BUY Down 46¢ $5 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:10AM-5:15AM ET BUY Down 34¢ $5 2h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +33%
net ROI/market (all)-22.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 159 -14.1% -22.3% 33% 33% -22.7%
≤30d 159 -14.1% -22.3% 33% 33% -22.7%
≤90d 159 -14.1% -22.3% 33% 33% -22.7%
all 159 -14.1% -22.3% 33% 33% -22.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover106.0 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -22.3% 33% -22.7%
10% ← realistic here -29.7% 33% -30.1%
15% -36.5% 30% -36.9%
20% -42.7% 29% -43.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $22.18 · official $43.36 · 307 history records