Wallet analysis

2026-06-26T23:59:01+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.0
score
14 0x141a…95a9 sports 194 markets active 0h ago coverage 112d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFresh edge
✗ profits on perfect fills only — loses on real
Total PnL +$4,156 (+12%) realized +$4,084 · open +$72
Gross ROI / mkt +12% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -3% what you keep after slip
Net edge-3%after slip
Net WR45%break-even
Win rate61%96W / 61L
Whale WR100%big bets
Drawdown37%max
Avg bet$178per market
Trades / day6.8pace
Fees−$212est.
Kalshi-fit76%portable
Net worth$5,525now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$903
7 days+$1,855
14 days+$2,510
30 days+$2,949
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 68% +$2,797
other 29% +$1,317
world 2% +$48
tech 0% +$32
crypto 0% +$15
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
trap: profits on perfect fill only, loses on real
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +45%
net ROI/market (all)+1.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 5 +140.3% +117.4% 100% 80% +105.9%
≤30d 24 +49.7% +35.4% 71% 58% +39.3%
≤90d 112 +12.6% +1.8% 62% 42% +3.6%
all 157 +12.1% +1.4% 61% 45% +3.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover6.8 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to5%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +1.4% 45% +3.3%
10% -8.3% 43% -6.6%
15% -17.1% 41% -15.6%
20% -25.3% 36% -23.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 7% · top 2 14% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +14% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
24% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +12% · $-wt +14% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 100% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +7% → late +17% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
3.8 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$130 vs −$137 · ×0.95 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.5 per $1 lost it wins $1.5
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

112d coverage
Net worth$5,525
Realized+$4,084
Unrealized+$72
Win rate (resolved)61%
Wins / losses96 / 61
Whale WR (big bets)100%
Est. fees paid−$212
Open positions37
Markets (closed)157 / 194
History coverage112d
Avg bet$178
Trades / day6.8
Drawdown37%
Kalshi-fit76%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 37 History 157 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 96¢ 97¢ $964 $972 +$8 (+1%)
Will USA reach the Quarterfinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 52¢ 50¢ $690 $663 −$27 (-4%)
Will Carson Carels be drafted in the top 5 of the 2026 NHL Draft? No 61¢ 90¢ $387 $578 +$191 (+49%)
Will Iran reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 82¢ 82¢ $417 $418 +$1 (+0%)
Will William Hakansson be drafted in the top 5 of the 2026 NHL Draft? No 99¢ 100¢ $326 $327 +$1 (+0%)
Will Caleb Malhotra be drafted with the 3rd pick in the 2026 NHL Draft? Yes 51¢ 76¢ $155 $232 +$77 (+50%)
Will Brooks Rogowski be drafted 1st overall in the 2026 NHL Draft? No 98¢ 100¢ $200 $204 +$4 (+2%)
Will Nikita Klepov be drafted in the top 5 of the 2026 NHL Draft? No 99¢ 100¢ $183 $184 +$1 (+1%)
Will Keaton Verhoeff be drafted in the top 5 of the 2026 NHL Draft? No 100¢ 100¢ $171 $171 +$0 (+0%)
Will Nikita Shcherbakov be drafted 1st overall in the 2026 NHL Draft? No 100¢ 100¢ $167 $167 +$0 (+0%)
Will Sean O'Malley become UFC champion in 2026? No 85¢ 79¢ $172 $161 −$12 (-7%)
Will Xavier Villeneuve be drafted in the top 10 of the 2026 NHL Draft? No 97¢ 98¢ $142 $144 +$2 (+2%)
Will Oscar Hemming be drafted with the 2nd pick in the 2026 NHL Draft? No 100¢ 100¢ $129 $129 +$0 (+0%)
Will Wyatt Cullen be drafted with the 2nd pick in the 2026 NHL Draft? No 100¢ 100¢ $129 $129 +$0 (+0%)
Will Viggo Björck be drafted with the 3rd pick in the 2026 NHL Draft? No 100¢ 90¢ $120 $108 −$12 (-10%)
Will Switzerland reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 59¢ 64¢ $90 $98 +$8 (+9%)
Will Markus Ruck be drafted in the top 10 of the 2026 NHL Draft? No 96¢ 97¢ $88 $89 +$1 (+1%)
Will Markus Ruck be drafted in the top 5 of the 2026 NHL Draft? No 100¢ 100¢ $88 $88 −$0 (-0%)
Will Ilya Morozov be drafted in the top 10 of the 2026 NHL Draft? No 97¢ 97¢ $87 $86 −$0 (-0%)
Will Alexander Command be drafted with the 11th pick in the 2026 NHL Draft? Yes 10¢ 37¢ $22 $82 +$60 (+270%)
Will Japan reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 45¢ 28¢ $123 $76 −$46 (-38%)
Will Petr Yan fight Payton Talbott next? No 98¢ 100¢ $63 $64 +$1 (+1%)
Will Xavier Villeneuve be drafted in the top 5 of the 2026 NHL Draft? No 100¢ 99¢ $60 $60 −$0 (-1%)
Will Keaton Verhoeff be drafted with the 6th pick in the 2026 NHL Draft? No 73¢ 63¢ $51 $44 −$7 (-14%)
Will Maddox Dagenais be drafted with the 8th pick in the 2026 NHL Draft? No 98¢ 63¢ $59 $38 −$21 (-36%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 20 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Switzerland win Group B in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 25 $741 +$903 +122%
World Cup: Winless Team? Jun 24 $198 +$2 +1%
Johan Manzambi: 1+ goals Jun 24 $192 +$813 +424%
Will Gavin McKenna be drafted 1st overall in the 2026 NHL Draft? Jun 22 $321 +$134 +42%
UFC Fight Night: Karol Rosa vs. Luana Santos (Women's Bantamweight, Pr Jun 20 $3 +$4 +113%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $490 +$300 +61%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $346 +$154 +44%
O/U 1.5 Rounds Jun 15 $200 +$200 +100%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 10 $220 −$220 -100%
World Cup: First Penalty Made or Missed? Jun 09 $57 −$57 -100%
UFC Fight Night: Farés Ziam vs. Tom Nolan (Lightweight, Prelims) Jun 07 $54 +$146 +270%
Will Iwo Baraniewski win by KO or TKO? Jun 07 $120 +$80 +67%
Will Ilya Sorokin win the 2025–2026 NHL Vezina Trophy? Jun 06 $122 +$8 +7%
Will Anthony Cirelli win the 2025–2026 NHL Frank J. Selke Trophy? Jun 05 $62 +$3 +5%
Will the No to ten million Switzerland initiative be approved in Switz Jun 05 $250 −$250 -100%
Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of May 2026? May 31 $168 +$32 +19%
World Championships: Canada vs. Finland May 30 $267 +$405 +152%
Will PSG win the 2025–26 Champions League? May 30 $286 +$264 +92%
UFC Fight Night: Alex Perez vs. Sumudaerji (Flyweight, Main Card) May 30 $262 −$30 -12%
UFC Fight Night: Ding Meng vs. Jose Henrique (Welterweight, Prelims) May 30 $144 +$156 +108%
Will Zhang Mingyang win by KO or TKO? May 30 $309 −$309 -100%
UFC Fight Night: Rodrigo Vera vs. Zhu Kangjie (Featherweight, Prelims) May 30 $329 +$371 +113%
Roland Garros WTA: Daria Kasatkina vs Susan Bandecchi May 28 $60 −$60 -100%
Will the Vegas Golden Knights win the 2026 NHL Stanley Cup? May 28 $267 −$101 -38%
Will Nathan MacKinnon win the 2026 NHL Conn Smythe Trophy? May 27 $107 −$106 -99%
World Championships: Switzerland vs. Finland May 26 $16 +$16 +104%
World Championships: Switzerland vs. Hungary May 23 $330 +$5 +2%
World Championships: Switzerland vs. Great Britain May 21 $438 +$6 +1%
World Championships: Sweden vs. Slovenia May 20 $372 +$28 +8%
Will the Colorado Avalanche win the Western Conference? May 20 $476 −$476 -100%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? May 20 $380 −$380 -100%
World Championships: Hungary vs. Great Britain May 19 $192 −$192 -100%
World Championships: Germany vs. Switzerland May 18 $485 +$5 +1%
World Championships: Finland vs. USA May 18 $175 −$175 -100%
Will Manchester United FC win on 2026-05-17? May 18 $148 +$102 +70%
UFC Fight Night: Malcolm Wellmaker vs. Juan Diaz (Bantamweight, Main C May 17 $201 −$201 -100%
Will Conor McGregor fight Max Holloway next? May 17 $72 +$28 +39%
World Championships: Switzerland vs. Latvia May 17 $1,124 +$229 +20%
World Championships: Italy vs. Canada May 16 $267 +$3 +1%
Will Manchester City FC win on 2026-05-19? May 16 $124 −$124 -100%
Internazionali BNL d'Italia: Jannik Sinner vs Daniil Medvedev May 16 $336 +$34 +10%
World Championships: USA vs. Switzerland May 16 $106 +$94 +89%
Will Jeremy Swayman win the 2025–2026 NHL Vezina Trophy? May 14 $4 −$4 -100%
Will FC Internazionale Milano win on 2026-05-13? May 13 $174 +$126 +72%
UFC Fight Night: Trey Ogden vs. Tommy Gantt (Lightweight, Prelims) May 12 $1,124 +$448 +40%
KHL: Lokomotiv Yaroslavl vs. Ak Bars Kazan May 11 $151 −$151 -100%
Will Atalanta BC win on 2026-05-10? May 11 $65 +$185 +285%
Will ACF Fiorentina vs. Genoa CFC end in a draw? May 10 $78 +$200 +257%
O/U 2.5 Rounds May 10 $176 +$157 +89%
O/U 2.5 Rounds May 10 $6 +$5 +79%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Xavier Villeneuve be drafted in the top 5 of the 2026 NHL Draft? BUY No 100¢ $60 5m
Will Markus Ruck be drafted in the top 5 of the 2026 NHL Draft? BUY No 100¢ $88 6m
Will Keaton Verhoeff be drafted in the top 5 of the 2026 NHL Draft? BUY No 100¢ $171 6m
Will Carson Carels be drafted in the top 5 of the 2026 NHL Draft? BUY No 68¢ $34 11m
Will Carson Carels be drafted in the top 5 of the 2026 NHL Draft? BUY No 60¢ $345 13m
Will Carson Carels be drafted in the top 5 of the 2026 NHL Draft? BUY No 59¢ $12 13m
Will Viggo Björck be drafted with the 3rd pick in the 2026 NHL Draft? BUY No 100¢ $120 21m
Will Keaton Verhoeff be drafted with the 3rd pick in the 2026 NHL Draf BUY No 100¢ $12 21m
Will Tommy Bleyl be drafted in the top 10 of the 2026 NHL Draft? BUY No 99¢ $27 45m
Will Tommy Bleyl be drafted in the top 10 of the 2026 NHL Draft? BUY No 99¢ $32 46m
Will Marcus Nordmark be drafted in the top 10 of the 2026 NHL Draft? BUY No 99¢ $7 46m
Will Marcus Nordmark be drafted in the top 10 of the 2026 NHL Draft? BUY No 99¢ $8 46m
Will Marcus Nordmark be drafted in the top 10 of the 2026 NHL Draft? BUY No 99¢ $7 47m
Will Marcus Nordmark be drafted in the top 10 of the 2026 NHL Draft? BUY No 99¢ $7 47m
Will Marcus Nordmark be drafted in the top 10 of the 2026 NHL Draft? BUY No 99¢ $7 47m
Will Marcus Nordmark be drafted in the top 10 of the 2026 NHL Draft? BUY No 99¢ $7 47m
Will Marcus Nordmark be drafted in the top 10 of the 2026 NHL Draft? BUY No 99¢ $7 47m
Will Marcus Nordmark be drafted in the top 10 of the 2026 NHL Draft? BUY No 99¢ $7 48m
Will Ilya Morozov be drafted in the top 10 of the 2026 NHL Draft? BUY No 97¢ $87 55m
Will Xavier Villeneuve be drafted in the top 10 of the 2026 NHL Draft? BUY No 97¢ $49 55m
Will Xavier Villeneuve be drafted in the top 10 of the 2026 NHL Draft? BUY No 97¢ $94 55m
Will Markus Ruck be drafted in the top 10 of the 2026 NHL Draft? BUY No 96¢ $88 57m
Will Nikita Klepov be drafted in the top 10 of the 2026 NHL Draft? BUY No 97¢ $9 58m
Will Nikita Klepov be drafted in the top 10 of the 2026 NHL Draft? BUY No 97¢ $13 58m
Will William Hakansson be drafted in the top 5 of the 2026 NHL Draft? BUY No 99¢ $99 1h
Will William Hakansson be drafted in the top 5 of the 2026 NHL Draft? BUY No 99¢ $227 1h
Will Nikita Klepov be drafted in the top 5 of the 2026 NHL Draft? BUY No 99¢ $183 1h
Will Mathis Preston be drafted in the top 10 of the 2026 NHL Draft? BUY No 97¢ $2 1h
Will Mathis Preston be drafted in the top 10 of the 2026 NHL Draft? BUY No 97¢ $12 1h
Will William Hakansson be drafted in the top 10 of the 2026 NHL Draft? BUY No 97¢ $19 1h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $5,524.55 · official $5,524.00 (match) · 937 history records