Wallet analysis

2026-06-29T23:10:08+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
14 0x1424…4f78 sports 146 markets active 1h ago coverage 417d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$913 (-10%) realized −$859 · open −$54
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -20% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -28% what you keep after slip
Net edge-28%after slip
Net WR35%break-even
Win rate36%52W / 92L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$64per market
Trades / day0.5pace
Fees−$16est.
Kalshi-fit81%portable
Net worth$281now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$182
7 days+$206
14 days+$36
30 days−$14
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 76% −$221
other 23% −$563
world 1% −$100
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +35%
net ROI/market (all)-27.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 7 +13.2% +2.4% 57% 57% +32.2%
≤30d 12 -34.0% -40.3% 33% 33% -11.4%
≤90d 14 -43.4% -48.8% 29% 29% -35.3%
all 144 -19.9% -27.5% 36% 35% -17.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.5 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -27.5% 35% -17.0%
10% -34.5% 35% -24.9%
15% -40.8% 34% -32.2%
20% -46.6% 31% -38.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 5% · top 2 10% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -28% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
2% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -20% · $-wt -9% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -13% → late -27% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$68 vs −$47 · ×1.43 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.81 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

417d coverage
Net worth$281
Realized−$859
Unrealized−$54
Win rate (resolved)36%
Wins / losses52 / 92
Est. fees paid−$16
Open positions1
Markets (closed)144 / 146
History coverage417d
Avg bet$64
Trades / day0.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit81%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 144 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 8¢ 7¢ $336 $281 −$54 (-16%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 72 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Germany vs. Paraguay end in a draw? Jun 29 $41 +$38 +92%
Exact Score: Brazil 3 - 1 Japan? Jun 29 $21 −$20 -97%
Wimbledon ATP: Jannik Sinner vs Miomir Kecmanovic Jun 29 $15 −$15 -97%
Will South Africa vs. Canada end in a draw? Jun 28 $59 +$45 +76%
Will Algeria vs. Austria end in a draw? Jun 28 $123 +$135 +109%
Will Croatia vs. Ghana end in a draw? Jun 27 $88 −$63 -71%
Mallorca Championships: Ethan Quinn vs Alejandro Davidovich Fokina Jun 27 $100 +$86 +86%
Will Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw? Jun 18 $30 −$29 -98%
Nottingham Open: Viktorija Golubic vs Zeynep Sonmez Jun 18 $100 −$99 -99%
Will France vs. Senegal end in a draw? Jun 16 $43 −$42 -98%
Leroy Sané: 1+ goals Jun 14 $30 −$30 -98%
Exact Score: Brazil 2 - 0 Morocco? Jun 13 $21 −$20 -98%
Internazionali BNL d'Italia: Sorana Cirstea vs Coco Gauff May 14 $150 −$147 -98%
Set Handicap: Ruud (-1.5) vs Khachanov (+1.5) May 13 $100 −$99 -99%
Will Manchester United FC win on 2026-03-15? Mar 15 $100 −$100 -100%
Will Borussia Mönchengladbach win on 2026-03-13? Mar 13 $100 −$100 -100%
BNP Paribas Open: Jack Draper vs Daniil Medvedev Mar 12 $70 −$70 -100%
BNP Paribas Open: Arthur Fils vs Alexander Zverev Mar 12 $10 −$10 -100%
BNP Paribas Open: Novak Djokovic vs Jack Draper Mar 12 $100 +$130 +130%
BNP Paribas Open: Jessica Pegula vs Belinda Bencic Mar 11 $50 −$50 -100%
BNP Paribas Open: Victoria Mboko vs Amanda Anisimova Mar 11 $42 +$59 +142%
BNP Paribas Open: Learner Tien vs Alejandro Davidovich Fokina Mar 10 $69 −$69 -100%
Set Handicap: Auger-Aliassime (-1.5) vs Fils (+1.5) Mar 10 $28 −$28 -100%
BNP Paribas Open: Valentin Vacherot vs Casper Ruud Mar 10 $147 +$92 +62%
BNP Paribas Open: Elise Mertens vs Belinda Bencic Mar 09 $26 −$26 -100%
Set Handicap: Muchova (-1.5) vs Ruzic (+1.5) Mar 09 $103 +$49 +47%
BNP Paribas Open: Jessica Pegula vs Jelena Ostapenko Mar 09 $30 −$20 -65%
BNP Paribas Open: Francisco Cerundolo vs Jack Draper Mar 09 $35 −$35 -100%
Set Handicap: Paul (-1.5) vs Fonseca (+1.5) Mar 09 $22 −$22 -100%
Set Handicap: Fils (-1.5) vs Fucsovics (+1.5) Mar 08 $70 −$70 -100%
BNP Paribas Open: Flavio Cobolli vs Frances Tiafoe Mar 08 $36 −$36 -100%
BNP Paribas Open: Ajla Tomljanovic vs Jasmine Paolini Mar 08 $10 −$10 -100%
BNP Paribas Open: Alejandro Davidovich Fokina vs Jakub Mensik Mar 08 $56 +$31 +55%
Set Handicap: Shelton (-1.5) vs Tien (+1.5) Mar 08 $20 −$20 -100%
BNP Paribas Open: Talia Gibson vs Clara Tauson Mar 08 $3 −$3 -100%
BNP Paribas Open: Sorana Cirstea vs Linda Noskova Mar 08 $64 +$108 +168%
BNP Paribas Open: Karen Khachanov vs Joao Fonseca Mar 07 $60 −$60 -100%
Will VfB Stuttgart win on 2026-03-07? Mar 07 $40 −$24 -59%
BNP Paribas Open: Flavio Cobolli vs Miomir Kecmanovic Mar 07 $43 +$48 +112%
BNP Paribas Open: Diana Shnaider vs Sorana Cirstea Mar 07 $55 +$37 +68%
Set Handicap: Musetti (-1.5) vs Fucsovics (+1.5) Mar 06 $40 −$40 -100%
BNP Paribas Open: Jenson Brooksby vs Frances Tiafoe Mar 06 $45 −$45 -100%
Korda vs. Comesana: Match O/U 21.5 Mar 06 $50 +$40 +80%
BNP Paribas Open: Alejandro Tabilo vs Rafael Jodar Mar 06 $38 +$55 +144%
BNP Paribas Open: Diane Parry vs Venus Williams Mar 05 $20 −$20 -100%
BNP Paribas Open: Fabian Marozsan vs Roberto Bautista Agut Mar 05 $60 +$39 +65%
BNP Paribas Open: Donna Vekic vs Tereza Valentova Mar 05 $100 +$69 +69%
BNP Paribas Open: Magda Linette vs Ashlyn Krueger Mar 05 $50 −$50 -100%
BNP Paribas Open: Marie Bouzkova vs Taylor Townsend Mar 05 $50 −$50 -100%
BNP Paribas Open: Terence Atmane vs Grigor Dimitrov Mar 05 $33 −$33 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Germany vs. Paraguay end in a draw? SELL Yes 75¢ $78 47m
Will Germany vs. Paraguay end in a draw? BUY Yes 38¢ $41 1h
Vinícius Júnior: 1+ goals AND Spread: Brazil (-1.5) AND Brazil vs. Jap BUY 6¢ $6 6h
Exact Score: Brazil 3 - 1 Japan? BUY Yes 6¢ $21 6h
Wimbledon ATP: Jannik Sinner vs Miomir Kecmanovic BUY Miomir Kecmanovic 13¢ $15 7h
Will South Africa vs. Canada end in a draw? SELL Yes 81¢ $104 26h
Will South Africa vs. Canada end in a draw? BUY Yes 45¢ $59 26h
Will Algeria vs. Austria end in a draw? BUY Yes 47¢ $123 2d
Will Croatia vs. Ghana end in a draw? SELL Yes 9¢ $25 2d
Will Croatia vs. Ghana end in a draw? BUY Yes 30¢ $88 2d
Mallorca Championships: Ethan Quinn vs Alejandro Davidovich Fokina BUY Alejandro Davidovich Fokina 53¢ $100 2d
Will Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw? BUY Yes 24¢ $30 11d
Nottingham Open: Viktorija Golubic vs Zeynep Sonmez BUY Zeynep Sonmez 54¢ $100 11d
Will France vs. Senegal end in a draw? BUY Yes 30¢ $43 13d
Leroy Sané: 1+ goals BUY Yes 46¢ $30 15d
Exact Score: Brazil 2 - 0 Morocco? BUY Yes 13¢ $21 16d
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 8¢ $115 16d
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 8¢ $115 20d
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 8¢ $115 21d
Internazionali BNL d'Italia: Sorana Cirstea vs Coco Gauff BUY Sorana Cirstea 43¢ $150 46d
Set Handicap: Ruud (-1.5) vs Khachanov (+1.5) BUY Ruud 53¢ $100 47d
Will Manchester United FC win on 2026-03-15? BUY No 49¢ $100 106d
Will Borussia Mönchengladbach win on 2026-03-13? BUY No 50¢ $100 108d
BNP Paribas Open: Jack Draper vs Daniil Medvedev BUY Jack Draper 39¢ $70 109d
BNP Paribas Open: Arthur Fils vs Alexander Zverev BUY Arthur Fils 15¢ $10 109d
BNP Paribas Open: Novak Djokovic vs Jack Draper BUY Jack Draper 43¢ $100 110d
BNP Paribas Open: Jessica Pegula vs Belinda Bencic BUY Belinda Bencic 39¢ $50 110d
BNP Paribas Open: Learner Tien vs Alejandro Davidovich Fokina BUY Alejandro Davidovich Fokina 44¢ $4 111d
BNP Paribas Open: Victoria Mboko vs Amanda Anisimova BUY Victoria Mboko 41¢ $42 111d
BNP Paribas Open: Learner Tien vs Alejandro Davidovich Fokina BUY Alejandro Davidovich Fokina 44¢ $25 111d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $281.30 · official $281.70 (match) · 266 history records