Wallet analysis

2026-06-16T14:45:41+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
14 0x1424…3d2c crypto 10 markets active 0h ago coverage 1d
RISKYcopy with care crypto specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ only 1d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$5 (-16%) realized −$5 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -29% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -45% what you keep after slip
Net edge-45%after slip
Net WR10%break-even
Win rate40%4W / 6L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$3per market
Trades / day29.0pace
Kalshi-fit90%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 1d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 97% −$5
other 3% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +10%
net ROI/market (all)-35.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 10 -29.0% -35.8% 40% 10% -25.8%
≤30d 10 -29.0% -35.8% 40% 10% -25.8%
≤90d 10 -29.0% -35.8% 40% 10% -25.8%
all 10 -29.0% -35.8% 40% 10% -25.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover29.0 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -35.8% 10% -25.8%
10% ← realistic here -41.9% 0% -32.9%
15% -47.5% 0% -39.4%
20% -52.7% 0% -45.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 78% · top 2 92% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -18% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
75% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -29% · $-wt -18% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.8 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$1 · ×0.08 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.06 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

1d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$5
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)40%
Wins / losses4 / 6
Open positions0
Markets (closed)10 / 10
History coverage1d
Avg bet$3
Trades / day29.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit90%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 10 Trades
no open positions (2 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 10:35AM-10:40AM ET Jun 16 $2 −$2 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:30AM-10:45AM ET Jun 16 $3 $0 -11%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:15AM-10:30AM ET Jun 16 $1 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:20AM-10:25AM ET Jun 16 $4 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:15AM-10:20AM ET Jun 16 $6 −$2 -25%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 9AM ET Jun 16 $6 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:35AM-9:40AM ET Jun 16 $5 $0 -4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:40AM-9:45AM ET Jun 16 $2 $0 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET Jun 16 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? Jun 16 $1 $0 -10%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 10:35AM-10:40AM ET BUY Down 7¢ $2 6m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:30AM-10:45AM ET SELL Down 32¢ $1 7m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:30AM-10:45AM ET BUY Down 44¢ $2 10m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:30AM-10:45AM ET SELL Down 70¢ $1 12m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:30AM-10:45AM ET BUY Down 49¢ $1 15m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:15AM-10:30AM ET BUY Down 99¢ $1 18m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:20AM-10:25AM ET SELL Up 67¢ $4 24m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:20AM-10:25AM ET BUY Up 64¢ $2 25m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:20AM-10:25AM ET BUY Up 63¢ $2 25m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:15AM-10:20AM ET BUY Up 28¢ $2 29m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:15AM-10:20AM ET SELL Up 57¢ $4 30m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:15AM-10:20AM ET BUY Up 52¢ $2 30m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:15AM-10:20AM ET BUY Up 51¢ $2 30m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 9AM ET SELL Down 97¢ $2 55m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 9AM ET BUY Down 95¢ $2 55m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 9AM ET SELL Down 98¢ $2 58m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 9AM ET BUY Down 96¢ $2 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 9AM ET SELL Down 94¢ $2 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 9AM ET BUY Down 94¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:40AM-9:45AM ET SELL Up 91¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:40AM-9:45AM ET BUY Up 80¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:35AM-9:40AM ET BUY Down 11¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:35AM-9:40AM ET SELL Up 74¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:35AM-9:40AM ET SELL Down 43¢ $4 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:35AM-9:40AM ET BUY Down 20¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:35AM-9:40AM ET BUY Up 80¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET BUY Up 37¢ $1 1h
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? SELL No 28¢ $1 1h
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? BUY No 29¢ $1 1h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 32 history records