Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T03:37:49+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.0
score
14 0x1428…3092 other 33 markets active 0h ago coverage 6d
RISKYcopy with care ⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$5 (+1%) realized +$5 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -24% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -34% what you keep after slip
Net edge-34%after slip
Net WR43%break-even
Win rate57%4W / 3L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$16per market
Trades / day7.0pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit45%portable
Net worth$471now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 6d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
other 95% +$7
sports 5% +$1
weather 0% −$2
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +43%
net ROI/market (all)-31.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 7 -23.7% -31.0% 57% 43% +2.5%
≤30d 7 -23.7% -31.0% 57% 43% +2.5%
≤90d 7 -23.7% -31.0% 57% 43% +2.5%
all 7 -23.7% -31.0% 57% 43% +2.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover7.0 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -31.0% 43% +2.5%
10% -37.6% 29% -7.4%
15% -43.6% 29% -16.3%
20% -49.1% 29% -24.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 62% · top 2 85% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +13% too few recent
Fragile wins
25% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -24% · $-wt +13% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$3 vs −$2 · ×1.39 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×1.86 per $1 lost it wins $1.86
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

6d coverage
Net worth$471
Realized+$5
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)57%
Wins / losses4 / 3
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions26
Markets (closed)7 / 33
History coverage6d
Avg bet$16
Trades / day7.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit45%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 26 History 7 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 20¢ 20¢ $382 $387 +$5 (+1%)
Will France win on 2026-06-26? Yes 56¢ 57¢ $10 $10 +$0 (+3%)
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-24? Yes 72¢ 72¢ $10 $10 −$0 (-1%)
Will England win on 2026-06-23? Yes 81¢ 80¢ $7 $7 −$0 (-1%)
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-24? Yes 59¢ 58¢ $7 $7 −$0 (-1%)
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by July 1? Yes 62¢ 34¢ $10 $5 −$5 (-46%)
Will United States win on 2026-06-25? Yes 48¢ 52¢ $5 $5 +$0 (+7%)
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-24? Yes 69¢ 68¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-1%)
Will Canada win on 2026-06-24? Yes 29¢ 28¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-2%)
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-24? Yes 52¢ 50¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-3%)
Portugal vs. Uzbekistan: O/U 3.5 Over 40¢ 40¢ $4 $4 −$0 (-1%)
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-24? Yes 83¢ 82¢ $3 $3 −$0 (-1%)
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-23? Yes 64¢ 64¢ $3 $3 −$0 (-1%)
Will Panama win on 2026-06-23? Yes 13¢ 12¢ $3 $3 −$0 (-4%)
Spread: Portugal (-2.5) Portugal 40¢ 40¢ $2 $2 +$0 (+1%)
Jordan vs. Algeria: Both Teams to Score No 54¢ 66¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+22%)
Spread: Algeria (-1.5) Jordan 60¢ 68¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+14%)
Portugal vs. Uzbekistan: Portugal O/U 0.5 Over 94¢ 94¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-1%)
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-23? Yes 83¢ 82¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-1%)
Portugal to score first vs. Uzbekistan? Yes 82¢ 81¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-1%)
Portugal vs. Uzbekistan: Both Teams to Score No 63¢ 62¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-1%)
Portugal vs. Uzbekistan: Uzbekistan O/U 0.5 Over 41¢ 40¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-2%)
Jordan vs. Algeria: Algeria O/U 0.5 Over 87¢ 81¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-7%)
Algeria to score first vs. Jordan? Yes 75¢ 61¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-19%)
Jordan vs. Algeria: Jordan O/U 0.5 Over 55¢ 44¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-20%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 3 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will France win on 2026-06-22? Jun 23 $9 +$1 +10%
France vs. Iraq: O/U 1.5 Jun 23 $9 +$1 +12%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $15 +$8 +53%
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? Jun 19 $5 +$3 +60%
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 30°C on June 18? Jun 17 $1 −$1 -97%
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 29°C on June 18? Jun 17 $1 −$1 -96%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $5 −$5 -99%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 20¢ $205 25m
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 83¢ $1 26m
Spread: Portugal (-2.5) BUY Portugal 40¢ $1 26m
Portugal vs. Uzbekistan: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 40¢ $3 26m
Portugal vs. Uzbekistan: Both Teams to Score BUY No 63¢ $1 26m
Portugal to score first vs. Uzbekistan? BUY Yes 82¢ $1 26m
Portugal vs. Uzbekistan: Portugal O/U 0.5 BUY Over 94¢ $1 26m
Portugal vs. Uzbekistan: Uzbekistan O/U 0.5 BUY Over 41¢ $1 26m
Jordan vs. Algeria: Algeria O/U 0.5 BUY Over 87¢ $1 26m
Jordan vs. Algeria: Jordan O/U 0.5 BUY Over 55¢ $1 26m
Algeria to score first vs. Jordan? BUY Yes 75¢ $1 27m
Jordan vs. Algeria: Both Teams to Score BUY No 54¢ $1 27m
Portugal vs. Uzbekistan: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 40¢ $1 27m
Spread: Portugal (-2.5) BUY Portugal 40¢ $1 27m
Jordan vs. Algeria: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 51¢ $1 28m
Spread: Algeria (-1.5) BUY Jordan 60¢ $1 28m
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 59¢ $7 58m
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 52¢ $5 58m
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 83¢ $3 58m
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 72¢ $10 59m
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 69¢ $5 59m
Will Canada win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 29¢ $5 59m
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 64¢ $3 59m
Will Panama win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 13¢ $3 59m
Will England win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 81¢ $7 59m
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 20¢ $102 1h
Will United States win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 48¢ $5 2d
Will France win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 91¢ $9 2d
France vs. Iraq: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 89¢ $9 2d
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 65¢ $10 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $471.23 · official $471.19 (match) · 52 history records